We’re back with a monster 10-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, April 23
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Rangers: Logan Gilbert
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
Pitching ownership is flowing mostly to three pitchers on this slate, and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert is not among them. Despite a tough matchup with the Rangers, Gilbert has a similar top-2 pitcher percentage as popular arms like Logan Webb and Michael King. Unlike Webb and King, however, Gilbert is an afterthought in a tough matchup against the Rangers.
Gilbert sports a 2.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and four walks in 27 innings. His 0.78 WHIP is tied for third in the majors among pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year. In other words, Gilbert has been phenomenal this season, and he deserves way more love than he’s currently getting on DraftKings. Gilbert projects to be a top-2 pitcher 11.1% of the time, but only 2.6% of lineups are expected to roster him.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Padres-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.8%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 1.4%
With 10 games on tonight’s docket, ownership on stacks is spread out all over the board. As of this writing, only the Astros and Padres are projected for double-digit ownership, and at 12.0% and 10.2% respectively, they are hardly projected to be overwhelming chalk. Most of the offenses on this slate are projected to be somewhere in the 3% to 8% ownership range, with many of them standing out as reasonable contrarian options. That said, Colorado is the best of the bunch from a contrarian standpoint on DraftKings.
As we found out again last night, stacking the Rockies in the year 2024 can be quite a painful endeavor. I must give credit where credit is due, however, and recognize that Dylan Cease was spectacular last night. That said, Michael King is not Cease, and with the field going to King at basically the same rate they did Cease, I can’t help but go right back to the Rockies again tonight. While it’s undeniable that King is too cheap on DraftKings given his strikeout upside, he’s been very hit or miss this season, with two dominant outings to go with three underwhelming ones. Although two of those starts came against the Dodgers, King is far from a sure thing right now, and he’s projected to be owned as if he was.
While there’s always opportunity cost in rostering the Rockies over one of the other top stacks on the board, Colorado’s upside in Coors against King is undeniable, and it is coming in drastically underowned. The Rockies are projected to be the top stack 3.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.0% of the field expected to stack them, Colorado is one of the best tournament stacks on the slate.
