NBA Player Props: Fade Jabari Smith's Rebounding (April 7)

The NBA playoffs have nearly arrived. But before we can get into do-or-die basketball, we have to wrap up the regular season. With so many games on the docket, most of which don’t matter, even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Jabari Smith Jr. player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Friday.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 7

Anthony Davis Prop O/U 27.5 Points

The Los Angeles Lakers can still stay out of the play-in tournament, but they’ll need some help to do so. The two teams above them, the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors, must lose at least once. But even though the Lakers are playing consequential basketball, NBA Bet Pro recommends fading Anthony Davis.

Davis is averaging only 26.3 points per game this year, and that’s with a sizeable portion of those games coming without LeBron James. Both Davis and James are questionable tonight, so it’s unclear who the Lakers intend to start. But if Davis plays, NBA Bet Pro has him recording only 25.2 points, giving the under an expected win rate of 61%. For more mispriced NBA player props, try out NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points (-115) at BetRivers

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Daniel Gafford Prop O/U 1.5 Assists

The Washington Wizards will take on the Miami Heat tonight. The Wizards have long since been eliminated from the playoffs, and they have recently been resting their veterans like Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal. But even with those two sidelined, center Daniel Gafford shouldn’t log two assists.

Gafford is mostly a lob threat and is averaging only a single assist per game this year and 0.8 for his career. NBA Bet Pro projects him for 1.4 assists tonight, giving the under an expected win rate of 54%. That’s better than the implied odds available at BetMGM (52.4%). Readers new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Best NBA Player Prop: Daniel Gafford Under 1.5 Assists (-110) at BetMGM

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Jabari Smith Jr. Prop O/U 9.5 Rebounds

The Houston Rockets haven’t had anything to play for but the lottery for weeks. That’s allowed them to play their talented youngsters for big minutes. But despite Houston’s decision to develop its young stars, Jabari Smith Jr. shouldn’t have a big night on the glass.

Smith is averaging only 7.3 rebounds per game this year. He is averaging 8 per game since the All-Star Break. NBA Bet Pro has Smith recording only 8 rebounds tonight, which gives the under an expected win rate of 58% — better than the implied odds available at Caesars Sportsbook (54.1%). Bettors yet to register at Caesars can get the first bet on the house up to $1,250!

Best NBA Player Prop: Jabari Smith Jr. Under 9.5 Rebounds (-118) at Caesars

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.