NBA Player Props: Fade Trae Young's Shooting (April 11)

The NBA Play-In Tournament is here! The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will do battle for a chance to play the Boston Celtics early, then the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will fight for a chance to face the Memphis Grizzlies late. With such high stakes involved — and so many betting markets — even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Trae Young player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Tuesday’s play-in games.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 11 Play-In Games

Troy Brown Jr. Prop O/U 2.5 Rebounds

The Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and they won’t have either Naz Reid or Rudy Gobert, their two best rebounds by rebound rate. That will likely thrust Karl-Anthony Towns, a much less aggressive rebounder, back into the lineup at center. That creates an opening for Troy Brown Jr. to exploit on the glass.

Brown should put together a solid showing on the glass. He is averaging 3.8 per game through his last five appearances and 4.1 on the year. Although he plays a much smaller role for the Lakers than he did earlier in the season, he should still see plenty of work, especially if the Lakers get out to a sizeable early lead. NBA Bet Pro has him projected for 3.1 rebounds, giving this play an expected win rate of 61%. For more mispriced NBA player props, try out NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Troy Brown Jr. Over 2.5 Rebounds -140 at DraftKings

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Trae Young Prop O/U 2.5 3-Pointers

The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Miami Heat, a tough defensive team, on the road this evening. That bodes poorly for point guard Trae Young. Young has struggled from beyond the arc all season and is averaging only 2.1 3-pointers per game. He stayed under this number in three of his four meetings with the Heat this year.

Young should continue to struggle on the perimeter, at least according to NBA Bet Pro. He is projected for only 1.8 3-pointers tonight, well below the number currently available at PointsBet. Readers yet to register at PointsBet can secure five second-chance bets worth up to $50 apiece!

Best NBA Player Prop: Trae Young Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-150) at PointsBet

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Onyeka Okongwu Prop O/U 13.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)

Despite what the market thinks, Atlanta’s backup center, Onyeka Okongwu, should put together a solid performance. Okongwu is averaging 18.1 PRA per game this year, far above this total. While some expect him to slide into more of a reserve role for this game, NBA Bet Pro thinks this number has overcorrected.

Okongwu should record 15.1 PRA tonight, per NBA Bet Pro. Okongwu has played too effectively for head coach Quin Snyder to have him ride the bench, especially with the aging Clint Capela as Atlanta’s only other viable center. The over has an expected win rate of 58%, better than the implied odds at Caesars Sportsbook (55.9%). Bettors yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!

Best NBA Player Prop: Onyeka Okongwu Over 13.5 PRA -127 at Caesars Sportsbook

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.