Friday brings a seven-game NBA DFS slate that appears ripe with opportunity despite a highwater mark of just 223 on the board in Las Vegas. With several tight point spreads on the board and plenty of star power and value plays galore available on both sites, high-scoring winners are in the offing for contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The slate seems likely to break around a few key plays once again. As seen just last night, a mediocre performance from a pricey star like Luka Doncic can derail a major section of the leaderboard, even when everyone gets a free square with a standout play like Montrezl Harrell delivering on his promised upside. Tonight’s slate does not have a player who stands out to that degree for upside or popularity, but there are a number of excellent options at positive leverage, as well as some popular quality that is under-owned.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this will be a balanced view of tonight’s options, exploring upside and leverage from the top to the bottom of the salary spectrum. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Collin Sexton: DraftKings — $6,500 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $6,900 — SG/PG
The primary bright spot for the Cavaliers, Collin Sexton, looks like an excellent play from the mid-range on both sites this evening. He has multi-position eligibility and comes in at a cheap price across the industry despite his steady minutes and workload. Sexton has played all five of the Cavaliers games so far, averaging 30.7 minutes a night. He is seeing 28.1% usage, down in a very minor way from the 28.6% he saw across all situations last season. He has turned that into just 0.90 fantasy points per minute, which is a significant drop from the 1.01 mark he had last year, which can be partly attributed to a dip from the 35.3 minutes a game he saw last year. Sexton averaged 24.3 real points with a 25.2% assist share last season, this year he is at just 20.4 points and a lowly 12.2% assist percentage. Betting on the talent at this price is a simple proposition, we know for a certainty that Sexton is better than the numbers he has posted in the small season sample, and he posted 26 points with seven rebounds in Tuesday’s contest, with a 33-point night also on his ledger from nine days ago.
On FanDuel, Sexton lands as an above-average play. He has eligibility at both guard spots on the blue site and he costs just $6,900 while pulling in a 17.5% optimal lineup rate. He is carrying a median projection of 32 FanDuel points but just a 13% boom score probability that ranks 43rd on the site. The upside comes from the optimal lineup rate that ranks 14th among all positions and, more importantly, the significant 10.3 leverage score that Sexton is carrying on the site. He is projected for less than 10% public popularity, less than half of his probability of landing in the top lineup according to Awesemo’s simulations. With his positional flexibility and lack of popularity, Sexton is a strong option on the site who should not be skipped in building lineups, particularly when it is this easy to exceed the field’s ownership.
He is a far better play on the DraftKings slate. Sexton comes in with eligibility at both guard spots and a price tag of just $6,500 on the site. He lands in the optimal lineup in 24.7% of Awesemo’s simulations, a mark that lands him second among players from all positions. He trails only Bruce Brown of the Nets in the category, and he can easily be played in the same lineup if desired. Sexton comes in with a 33-point DraftKings projection and a 22.6% boom score probability, but he really stands out again for his leverage score. The second-most optimal play on the slate is the third-most positively leveraged play, making him an easy click in a great number of lineups for the site. Getting beyond the field’s projected 15.1% ownership is easy with Sexton’s flexibility and upside.
Ivica Zubac: DraftKings — $5,000 — C | FanDuel — $4,600 — C
Ivica Zubac has been playing a prominent role as a value pivot for NBA DFS purposes when he is in line for extended minutes. With a 29-minute projection on the board, there is reason to believe in the upside that Zubac can provide for the low salaries. He is averaging 21.5 minutes per game so far this year, seeing 16.2% usage and delivering 1.07 fantasy points per minute. The usage and scoring rates are both up; last year across all situations Zubac saw 14.7% usage and put up 0.99 fantasy points per minute. With an extended run and a bit of extra focus, this is a prime play on both sites tonight.
Zubac is the leading player at any position by boom score probability on the FanDuel slate at 47.6%. He is carrying a 30.2-point median projection on the site and will not be popular enough. Zubac is projected for just 19.6% ownership on the site, but he lands in the optimal lineup in 24.8% of simulated slates, the fourth-highest score on the slate, creating a fairly significant discrepancy. Zubac’s 5.2 leverage score ranks 14th on the slate and falls behind several other underappreciated centers, but he is more frequently optimal and has a clear path to an upside score that the other options lack. Zubac is a strong option on the blue site tonight.
He is also an excellent play on the DraftKings slate where he costs $5,000 and is a center-only play. He books an 18.3% optimal lineup rate on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate tonight. That mark sits sixth overall on the slate and first among eligible centers. Zubac has a median projection of 30.4 fantasy points, and he is carrying a 39.9% boom score probability that is second among players of all positions. With only 8.9% projected public ownership, Zubac comes up with a 9.4 leverage score on the site, ranking him fourth in the category and making him the leading center play for value and upside at cost. Zubac is a clear building block play on both sites tonight.
Mo Bamba: DraftKings — $6,600 — C | FanDuel — $6,500 — C/PF
Mo Bamba has made his way into NBA DFS lineups as a midrange play in certain spots through the early part of the season and he looks like a quality option once again, despite public popularity. Bamba is averaging 31 minutes a night, seeing 17.4% usage and putting up 1.05 fantasy points per minute. Last season he posted a 1.27 per-minute mark on 21% usage, but that was in about half the time on the floor per night, Bamba had just a 15.8 minute per game average last year. He has put up a 27.5% rebounding percentage and a 14.3% assist rate this season, to go with a scoring average of 13.6 points and 2.6 stocks a night. With the Magic short on effective bigs, Bamba has plenty of work in the frontcourt on a nightly basis, it is fair to expect upside for the salary from the capable multi-category contributor.
Bamba has the highest optimal lineup rate on the FanDuel slate, where he can be rostered as either a power forward or center, which provides a significant degree of flexibility on the blue site. At just $6,500 he is also carrying a major boom score probability. His 41.2% mark in the category sits second among players at any position, trailing only Zubac. Playing the pair of big men together is an easy start to lineup construction, it should provide a strong foundation at a high value. The slate is not sleeping on Bamba, however. He comes in with a 37.7% ownership projection that is slightly outpacing the degree to which he will be optimal. Still, there seems to be room to carry the negative leverage, given the slate-leading marks in other areas. Getting to a mixture of Bamba across positions and in unique constructions remains an advisable move unless the ownership goes further into negative leverage territory.
On the DraftKings slate Bamba ranks eighth overall with a 16.6% optimal lineup rate. That mark is second among eligible centers, once again only trailing Zubac. Bamba is projected for a median of 36.1 DraftKings points on the slate, and he has a 35.5% boom score probability that lands fifth among players at any position. He is a slightly negative leverage play on this slate as well, but NBA DFS gamers can feel comfortable in pushing him at least to the field’s ownership, if not beyond that level. Bamba is a frequently optimal upside play, but he does not pop to quite the same degree on DraftKings as he does on FanDuel.
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