NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

A Tuesday slate that includes three out of seven games coming in at or around a 230-point total. With scoring upside in the Wizards vs Bucks, Nuggets vs. Timberwolves, and Nets vs. Suns games, it would be easy to get lost in angling lineup construction just for the stars, but there is a strong midrange of options throughout these games that should not be ignored. The slate’s configuration allows us to work with a wide array of potential combinations, there are a few major pieces of value on the board already, unlocking combinations of players that should drive up the overall total required to unlock the top 1% of a large-field GPP. A combination of highly optimal and positively leveraged players from a variety of pricing tiers and ownership rates is the advisable approach to lineup building on both DraftKings and FanDuel on a slate of this nature. The overall upside in adding a few players that rate similarly for probability but are carrying lower overall ownership adds to the chance of a lineup being truly unique and potentially slate-winning.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

JaVale McGee DraftKings — $4,2700 — C | FanDuel — $4,800 — C

While he is not an extreme value option like Andre Drummond was last night, Phoenix backup center JaVale McGee looks like a strong option from the low-cost range on both sites tonight. He is projected for 20.1 minutes in Awesemo’s afternoon update, which should give him enough time to pay off his affordable price tag. He produces fantasy points at a fantastic 1.32 per minute, and he was at 1.28 per minute in the 14 minutes he played in his return from a two-game absence. Prior to that stretch, McGee was playing in the 18- to 20-minute range, which he should be able to return to tonight, particularly if Jalen Smith continues to sit. McGee is under-owned and highly probable on both sites tonight. He has a 66.9% true shooting percentage and a 20.4% rebounding rate in his limited playing time.

On DraftKings, McGee lands second among all players, coming in with a 24.3% optimal lineup appearance rate for his $4,200 salary. The ability to include McGee alongside other center options is valuable on this slate, it negates any concern about opportunity cost around Nikola Jokic, which is more problematic on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings McGee is projected for a 27.1-point median night and he has a slate-leading 41.01% boom score probability. He should be targeted for well beyond the 11.3% at which the field is projected to include him in lineups. That rate lands McGee at a 13.0 leverage score that tops the DraftKings board. He is a leading option despite limited playing time. In the absence of stronger value, McGee should be rostered aggressively. It is also worth noting that he has upside beyond the playing time projection, though Bismack Biyombo has edged him out for the primary role.

On the FanDuel slate, McGee has a 14.5% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks just 19th overall and fifth among eligible centers on the blue site. McGee costs $4,800, but the site’s limited flexibility with the position relegates him to more of an ownership play on the site. The second-most frequently optimal center on the FanDuel slate is Jokic, who is at a ridiculous positive leverage score that cannot be ignored. McGee can be rostered in the limited number of lineups that do not get to Jokic. His 9.9 leverage score and 30.56% boom score probability are strong when not paying up at the position. Overall, it likely plays best to build around Jokic in the vast majority of lineups. His ridiculous probability rates should not be skipped frequently in favor of a 20-minute play, regardless of the pricing.

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Nikola Jokic: DraftKings — $12,500 — C | FanDuel — $11,300 — C

As a slate-leading pay-up option on both sites — assuming he plays — Jokic warrants major consideration on both sites once again tonight. He is currently questionable with a sore toe, but he is currently projected to play and looks like an outstanding option. The Nuggets star is the best fantasy points producer in the game, coming in with a ludicrous 1.73 per-minute mark for the season that stretches the boundaries of belief. Jokic has a 65.6% true shooting percentage, a 20.9% rebounding share and a 38.8% assist rate that would be a great mark for a point guard. That rate ranks third overall on the slate, behind only the 39.7% held by James Harden and the 42.3% carried by Chris Paul. He outperforms both Dejounte Murray and Kyle Lowry in the category. Jokic has posted 1.81 fantasy points per minute in 31 minutes per game over the team’s three most recent contests, including 59.3 FanDuel points in just 28 minutes in the most recent outing. Even under the strain of a massive salary, Jokic is one of the most likely to succeed plays at any position across the industry.

On FanDuel, Jokic is the fourth-most frequently optimal player at any position even though he is priced at $11,300 and only fits into one spot in the lineup. The amazing center has a 22.9% optimal lineup appearance rate and a massive 57.95-point median projection that leads all players by more than five fantasy points. Jokic has a 40.35% boom score probability on FanDuel that leads all players. The slate is currently projected for very low ownership, given the questionable tag that he is carrying during the afternoon. This could be advantageous in lineup building, depending on when the status news is released. The closer to lock the news gets, the less the public will have of the excellent play if he does end up taking the court. As it currently stands, Jokic is one of the top options on the slate at his 10.6 leverage score, but if he is confirmed in it would be fair to assume that the public will get to more than 12.3% of him. Jokic would remain a strong option even if the leverage gap closes. He seemingly only has to decide that he can play tonight in order to deliver value at this price.

At a much higher price on DraftKings, Jokic is a different consideration. He costs $12,500 on the slate, but he can be rostered alongside other value centers to help with the price in a way that FanDuel does not provide. This allows Jokic to still land in 15.6% of the slate’s optimal lineups in his 33.9-minute projected night. That much time on the floor has Jokic pushing to a 61.8-point median projection on the DraftKings slate and he has a logic-defying 34.51% boom score probability at the extremely high price. Jokic is projected for just 3.3% ownership on the site, given the questionable injury status. The popularity will climb on this site as well, but it will likely fall short of the 15% range it would need to reach to be appropriate for the level at which he is optimal in simulated DraftKings NBA DFS lineups. If he plays, Jokic is a strong option across the industry tonight. If he does not, the Nuggets will be yet another source of major value options.

Nicolas Claxton: DraftKings — $4,100 — C | FanDuel — $4,100 — C/PF

The other interesting value piece at the center position on both sites is Nicolas Claxton, who is expected to see a bit more than his 21.7-minute average, with Awesemo pushing him to a 25.8-minute night in projections. Claxton has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute throughout all situations this season, but he has been at just a 0.88 rate in his appearances in two of the team’s three most recent games, playing 17 minutes each night. Claxton posted just a 17.6-point night in the team’s most recent outing, but he is projected for better on both sites and is worth consideration in conjunction with the two previously featured positional options. Claxton has a 64% true shooting percentage and a 12% rebounding rate but just a 6.3% assist percentage this season. He also adds 1.5 stocks per game in his limited time and 2.5 per-36.

On the blue site, Claxton comes in with a $4,100 salary and the major benefit of power forward eligibility. That difference between Claxton and McGee is critical on this site, as it allows him to be rostered alongside Jokic, as opposed to instead of him. This keeps Claxton in the conversation as a highly optimal play. His 25.4% rate is, in fact, the slate-leading option among all players on the FanDuel board today. Claxton lands in the top lineup more frequently than the rate at which the field is projected to include him in rosters as well, leading to a targetable 2.3 leverage score. For the cheap price, Claxton’s 24.09-point median projection looks like a strong play. He has GPP-relevant upside as well and comes in with a 27.5% boom score probability, making him a strong foundational piece for FanDuel NBA DFS lineups tonight.

Despite a larger playing time projection and a similar price, Claxton slips well behind McGee on the DraftKings slate, given the notable difference in their per-minute contributions. Claxton lands in the optimal lineup in 11.2% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, pushing him to the fringes of positional relevance at 22nd overall and seventh among eligible centers. He is under-owned on the site, however, boosting his value somewhat in light of a 4.5 leverage score. Claxton is projected for a 23.7-point median DraftKings score and he has a 24.75% boom score probability, but he is more of a mix-and-match option through the utility spot in DraftKings builds than he is a prime target for significant ownership. The field is projected for just 6.7% ownership, it would be easy and not overly risky to double that mark in a variety of lineup combinations, but pushing beyond that rate seems like a shaky risk-reward proposition.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.