NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A big nine game Saturday slate that starts later than normal and has a ton of value and several major question marks is what we’re dealing with tonight. Daily fantasy basketball mainstays are thrown into a bit of flux, given new teams for some and new teammates for others, and the impact on rotations won’t be wholly known for at least a few days. For now, we can rely on some of the players we know will have clear upside for their situations tonight. On this nine-game slate the focus is on the top overall plays, with an eye toward leverage. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $8,400 — PF | FanDuel — $8,500 — PF

With several members of the newly configured Celtics riding the pine tonight, some of their main pieces have significant value and upside tonight. Primary among them is Jayson Tatum, who tops the DraftKings board by optimal lineup appearance rate as of our most recent late afternoon update. Tatum will be extremely relevant on both sites, slotting in at a construction-friendly price across the industry. The Celtics’ best player will have to do a bit more tonight, with Kemba Walker taking a seat alongside newly acquired Evan Fournier, Semi Ojeleye and Tristan Thompson, and with forward Daniel Theis traded out of town. With all of those players removed, Tatum jumps to 1.30 fantasy points per minute on the season, second on the team to Robert Williams, who is a spectacular play in his own right once again, coming in with a 1.55 fantasy point per minute mark in the situation.

Tatum stands out on the DraftKings board as the top ranked star caliber player and the highest player on the board at any position by optimal lineup rate. Tatum slots into the optimal in 23.9% of simulations and will be under-owned (so far) by comparison, creating a solid 4.1 leverage score. Even if this approaches even or somewhat negative during the hours running up to lock, we can probably extend ourselves to get to Tatum in such a strong spot. He has a 29.9% boom score probability, which is suggestive of some slate-leading upside.

On FanDuel, Tatum looks like a solid option, ranking second on the slate with a 24.5% optimal lineup appearance rate at a currently positive leverage score of 1.4. Tatum is an affordable option at the power forward spot on the site tonight, though there are several such plays with relatively similar rates. Taking a beat to examine ownership and leverage as we approach lock would be wise, this is a position with several potential pivots to be made among equally strong plays at several different tiers of salary, we can play, win and lose the game based on what we do at the power forward tonight. Of the leading candidates, Tatum has nearly a 10 percentage point lead by boom score probability, a nice upside-based tiebreaker for our purposes.

Paul George — Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings — $7,700 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,500 — SG

The Clippers will potentially be shorthanded tonight, Kawhi Leonard is currently listed as questionable after missing the team’s Thursday night game with a foot issue, and Marcus Morris Jr. is also questionable, while Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley remain on the shelf. This should create significant opportunity for the team’s second-best player, Paul George, who remains somewhat underpriced for the opportunity and upside. George is a 1.18 fantasy point per minute producer across all situations this season, a mark that jumps to 1.26 when those four teammates are off the floor. This is something of a news-dependent play, so keep a weather eye as we head into lock.

On the FanDuel slate, George ranks seventh at any position by optimal lineup appearance rate, coming in with a 20.3% mark, a number that should climb if we get Kawhi Leonard news. George has a very solid 26.6% boom score probability on the slate, indicating he is a bit underpriced for the potential upside, though you would never know it by the public’s ownership, which is currently leaving him at a 5.50 leverage score that has a ton of appeal on the blue site.

The slate on DraftKings takes a similar shape, George’s 13.6% optimal lineup appearance rate ranks him 10th overall. The positional flexibility on DraftKings lands a few players from the mid-range and value boards ahead of him in the optimal lineup category, but with money to spend Paul George is one of the leading options. He comes in with a 19.1% boom score probability that also ranks 10th on the site, and is particularly strong against competing guards. George will be a leverage play for now, coming in with a 2.6 mark that will likely be consumed if news on Leonard’s status breaks early. As a late-news pivot option or an anticipatory play, Paul George looks stellar.

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Nickeil Alexander-Walker

DraftKings — $5,300 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,300 — SG

Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball remains sidelined on Saturday, leaving Nickeil Alexander-Walker as one of the prime plays on the slate on both sites. He will be exceedingly popular across the industry, given his relatively low salary and glaringly obvious upside in the situation. Alexander-Walker has stepped up with Ball missing the team’s most recent three games, coming in third in scoring with a 17.3 real point per game average on just 20.6% usage. He has managed to kick in minor contributions in other areas of the game over that stretch, putting up a 15.8% rebounding share and a 14.3% assist rate, but we are rostering Alexander-Walker for the pure joy he receives from taking as many shots as possible, in the hopes that he is making more than his share for us. Over the three games, Alexander-Walker has taken 40.6% of the team’s three-point attempts, making 35.7% of them, while going 20-42 overall from the field in the sample.

On the FanDuel slate, Alexander-Walker has a massive 35.7% ownership share as compared to an 18.7% optimal lineup appearance rate. This creates a -17.0 leverage score in our boom/bust metrics that is, frankly, getting to uncomfortable territory on a player whose primary asset is his somewhat streaky volume shooting. Not that Alexander-Walker lines up as a bad play tonight, but when we ride that much public ownership on a play that highly variable we are playing with fire. As just the fifth-best option at the shooting guard position by our optimal lineup appearance rate at just 18.7% and fourth by boom score at 31.7%, there appear to be several good pivots away from the Pelicans’ guard and onto plays that are far less owned in terms of both raw numbers and leverage. It seems preferable to roster Tyrese Haliburton, Bradley Beal, Marcus Smart and Paul George, at the least, on the blue site tonight. Undercutting the field on the Alexander-Walker play seems like a good pivot point away from the public tonight.

The DraftKings slate breaks down differently. Alexander-Walker has the second-highest optimal lineup appearance rate on the board at any position, just behind Jayson Tatum and outpacing Houston’s Ben McLemore – a significant value play at just $3,200 – by nearly six percentage points. Alexander-Walker seems far less disposable a play on DraftKings, he has a 26.7% boom score probability that ranks fourth overall, though again his public ownership is a concern. Alexander-Walker comes in with a -14.7 leverage score that we have to worry about on this slate. With several options like Jordan Clarkson on the board in similar tiers of salary and upside, it will be interesting to monitor the ownership and leverage marks on the Alexander-Walker play as we crash into lock. If a little breathing room opens up he becomes a better play, but he is likely going to be an important piece of the puzzle, boom or bust, regardless.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.