NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Did I really refer to yesterday’s slate as tame in this space? One would think I would know better. Even a four-game slate can go sideways and that’s basically what happened, with interesting news breaking all over the place and several seemingly strong value plays not coming through when they were needed. The slate broke interestingly, and tonight’s larger 10-game affair seems poised to do something similar. With 10 games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the top overall plays on the board. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jordan Clarkson — Utah Jazz

DraftKings — $5,500 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,000 — PG

The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night, which will create a minutes and usage void in the team’s backcourt. The primary option to fill that space is Clarkson, who is simply too cheap for his upside in this situation. In 614 minutes without Mitchell on the floor, Clarkson goes from 1.04 to 1.11 fantasy points per minute, and he sees a spike to 30.4% usage. Clarkson is a highly competent scorer who will be asked to contribute more in that department tonight. He adds some ability to create fantasy points through counting stats, posting a 15.4% rebounding share and a 17.4% assist rate.

Clarkson is one of the leading guards on DraftKings, and he can be rostered at either of the guard positions. He comes up with a 34.3% optimal-lineup rate that ranks second overall on the slate. He has the night’s apex boom-score probability at 44.2%, and there is likely room for upside despite popularity trending into the mid-40%s and a -9.6 leverage score. There is simply too much upside to undercut the field on Clarkson tonight, even with 10 games from which to make daily fantasy basketball picks.

On FanDuel Clarkson is the overall slate leader, landing in the optimal lineup in 40.8% of simulations for the blue site. He will be owned at a greater rate than that; more than half of public lineups are projected to include him. Clarkson has a 55.8% boom-score probability that also tops the FanDuel slate, and he appears to be one of the best overall plays despite the heavy ownership. Outpacing the field on a play this strong seems like the approach despite a -11.8 leverage score. There are plenty of other ways to get different on this slate.

Kenrich Williams — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $4,400 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,400 — SF

Another player with a solid value salary from the mid-range, Williams is projected for more than 30 minutes of action tonight. The team will be without several key players, including Al Horford, who was shut down to allow opportunity for development of the team’s younger players. Joining the veteran on the shelf are Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Darius Bazley. Williams has played 238 minutes in the situation this season, receiving a 20.1 usage share and jumping to 0.99 fantasy points per minute. For the money, Williams is a strong value play on both sites tonight.

The multi-position eligibility that Williams adds on DraftKings makes him an incredibly versatile piece for lineup construction on the site tonight, as he can slot-in at both guard and forward positions, opening five potential roster spots to him. Unsurprisingly, Williams finds his way into the optimal lineup in 24.5% of simulations for the slate, but he will be under-owned and has a strong 6.8 leverage score. If a play looks this frequently optimal while also adding leverage on the field, that is the daily fantasy basketball ideal.

On FanDuel Williams has a 36.5% boom-score probability for his low salary at the small forward spot. He comes up frequently optimal on this site as well, but will be undervalued for his 22.0% optimal-lineup rate. The public is well behind the curve, leaving Williams with a very appealing 9.4 leverage score. It makes sense to at least double the field on the play on FanDuel tonight.

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Julius Randle — New York Knicks

DraftKings — $9,700 — PF/C | FanDuel — $9,300 — PF

We’re just stopping by on a frequently mentioned play to point out that Randle’s price has trended down from the $10,000 high-water mark earlier this week. Randle has an excellent projection for the money tonight, and he will be in a great spot against Minnesota. Randle is under-owned on FanDuel, where he has a 5.4 leverage score. He will be less popular overall on the DraftKings slate, where he has just a 6.9% public ownership projection, but remains positively leveraged with a 2.1 score. Randle should be in way more of your lineups than those of the public on FanDuel. On DraftKings he slots in more as a mix and match option who can create overall differentiation, and it would be easy enough to double his sub-10% ownership mark.

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Chris Boucher — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $5,000 — C | FanDuel — $4,900 — C

With Kyle Lowry out once again with his ailing foot, most of the Raptors see a bump in expected fantasy production in our projections and the boom/bust tool for tonight’s slate on both sites. The Raptors typically breakdown along cost and leverage lines for daily fantasy basketball, but when one of their main trio is out, it tends to concentrate their production while boosting the team’s ancillary players. Two games ago, with Lowry out, Boucher received 23.6 minutes, including two fourth quarter stints. He put up 18 real points and grabbed 11 rebounds, playing the end of the game with four fouls. In the team’s most recent game, when Lowry returned for a 23.9 minute night, Boucher saw just 15.7 minutes, scoring four points and adding three rebounds. Across 260 minutes with both Lowry and the traded Norman Powell removed from the lineup, Boucher has put up 1.25 fantasy points per minute this season, which is in-line with his season long production. He is projected for a 22-minute night and could put up a slate-breaking performance for the salary if he gets additional run.

On DraftKings Boucher has an 18.7% optimal-lineup rate that ranks seventh overall on the slate. He slots in only at center and utility spots in the lineup, but delivers enough from there, given his 28.4% boom-score probability and strong median projection for the cost. Boucher will be under-owned on the DraftKings slate as well, he has a high quality 8.4 leverage score, making him both an upside and leverage play.

On FanDuel the Toronto center costs just $4,900 and stands out as a potential value play at the singular center spot. He has a very strong 44.0% boom-score probability and will be rostered at under six percent by the public. That mark should be tripled if the public wants to reach Boucher’s optimal-lineup rate on the site. Despite any opportunity cost concerns, the value and upside that Boucher creates would be enough, but the 8.5 leverage score brings the play home as an easy one to make.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.