Thursday night presents a two-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Nov. 1.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
For tonight’s two-game slate, Stokastic is projecting Nikola Jokic to be the most-owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The center does hold the highest projection on the slate by a sizeable gap, but taking the risk of fading Jokic feels like the best way to differentiate yourself from the crowd tonight. Plus, there is certainly a chance that Jokic doesn’t live up to his slate-high price tags tonight. First off, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back this season, all of Jokic’s rates are down from last year, most notably with his usage dropping a notable 8.1 percentage points. As expected, this has hurt Jokic’s fantasy production, with him scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM this season, after averaging 1.8 a year ago. Jokic also doesn’t find himself in the greatest spot Thursday versus the Thunder. Oklahoma City has been impressive on the defensive end this season, ranking fourth in efficiency and they have limited their opponents to the fourth least points in the paint. Additionally, the Nuggets will be on the road and over the last three seasons, Jokic’s fantasy production has decreased by 2.9 DraftKings PPG when competing away from Denver. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but fading Jokic and opting for a more balanced lineup, possibly anchored by Stephen Curry, feels like the best strategy from a contrarian perspective for this short slate.
Curry is expected to be less owned than Jokic and the point guard should see a large workload, as the Warriors look to avoid dropping four games in a row. With a 29.6% usage rate, the sharpshooter is amassing 1.6 DraftKings PPM this season and he comes into tonight recording at least 57 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts. Curry is on the road going against a Magic defense that ranks 16th in efficiency tonight and this contest’s total is set at 226 points. When competing on the road in a total of at least 220 points over the last two seasons, Curry has exceeded 50 DraftKings points at a 56% clip.
Value Tier
Curry’s backcourt mate Klay Thompson, however, is standing out as one of the best fades this evening. In Stokastic’s projections, the shooting guard is forecast to be the second most rostered player on the slate, only trailing Jokic. Thompson’s price tags are appealing, but the shooter has struggled this season and just lacks real upside right now. Through his first seven starts of the season, Thompson is posting a career-worst 29% 3-point percentage and has yet to crack 30 DraftKings points.
With a slightly lower ownership projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jamal Murray is a much better target than Thompson. After being limited to start the season, Murray logged a season-high 32 minutes this past Sunday and delivered 34 DraftKings points versus the Lakers. The Nuggets haven’t played since this tilt and won’t play again until Saturday after tonight. Murray should see over 30 minutes again tonight and surpass five-times value at his sub $6,000 salaries on both sites. With a 26.3% usage rate this season, Murray has produced 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
Some other value plays tonight that aren’t gaining enough attention in Stokastic’s ownership projections are Josh Giddey and Kevon Looney. In his return from a three-game absence due to an ankle injury, Giddey disappointed relative to his DFS salaries Tuesday with only 26.25 DraftKings points. However, this was a product of his playing time being limited to only 25 minutes in his return. Now two days removed from that game, and with the Thunder not competing again until Saturday, Giddey should see likely right around 30 minutes tonight in a plus spot against the Nuggets, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency. With a 22.2% usage rate and a team-high 35.7% assist percentage, Giddey is generating 1.17 DraftKings PPM this season. Furthermore, before being limited Tuesday and getting hurt in his previous start before that game, Giddey was excellent in his first two starts of the season, providing 43.6 DraftKings points and 33.5 minutes per game. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Giddey is a top-three option on the slate in terms of leverage score.
As for Looney, the center is one of the cheapest starters available for this short slate and should see close to 25 minutes against a long Magic team that likes to always have two natural big men on the floor. Looney is collecting 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and has scored over 20 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts. On a point-per-dollar basis, Looney is the No. 1 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections.
Situations to Monitor
Terrence Ross (knee) is questionable and his absence would make Jalen Suggs an appealing value play. The second-year guard didn’t start in his return on Tuesday, but almost certainly would join the first unit and play 30+ minutes if Ross is inactive and Cole Anthony (oblique) is still sidelined. This season, Suggs has amassed 0.9 DraftKings PPM. Ross being out would also boost the fantasy stocks of Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. and Bol Bol. Albeit a limited sample of only 58 minutes, Carter Jr. has led the Magic with 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Ross and Anthony off the court this season, which is a huge jump from his 1.1 DraftKings PPM average for the season.
Bones Hyland (hip, questionable) is also a name to keep an eye on. If the guard suits up, he will likely come with depressed ownership and be a nice flier for GPPs. As Denver’s sixth man, Hyland has led the club with a 31.5% usage rate and flashed upside, topping 20 DraftKings points in three-of-six games this season. Now, if Hyland sits, Murray could possibly benefit from a few extra minutes, further solidifying him as one of the best values on the slate.
