Thursday night delivers a four-game NBA slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Thursday, Oct. 27
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
Starting at the top, Luka Doncic is expected to be popular tonight, but not as popular as you would expect for a four-game slate. This is especially true on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting the superstar to be less than 20% owned. With a slate-best ceiling in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, going overweight with Doncic and making him one of your core plays is the right choice. With a league-best 39.2% usage rate, which is the highest in the association by nearly 4%, Doncic has exposed his opponents for a whopping 63.4 DraftKings PPG through his first three starts. He is going against a Nets team that is on the second night of a back-to-back and that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency. This contest’s total is up to 226 points and the Mavericks are only favored by 2.5 points, which is the tightest spread on the slate. Additionally, Dallas’ implied team total is the highest they have seen so far this season (114.25 points) and Doncic is producing 63.6 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 instances he has played behind an implied team total of at least 110 points.
Coming off a 63.25 DraftKings point outburst against the Clippers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to be one of the top 10 most rostered players on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. Gilgeous-Alexander will be facing the Clippers again tonight and Josh Giddey (ankle) will miss his second straight game for the Thunder. With the second-year player off the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander takes on a 34.5% usage rate and scores 1.44 DraftKings PPM. At only $9,300 on DraftKings, the guard feels unavoidable, but as the third most expensive player on FanDuel at $10,300, there is certainly logic in fading him, given the number of appealing studs this short slate has to offer.
Going down a little lower in the upper tier, De’Aaron Fox isn’t getting enough attention in Stokastic’s ownership projections and is a sharp contrarian play. Leading the Kings by a mile in usage at 32.9%, which ranks top-10 in the league, the speedster is contributing 52.3 DraftKings PPG across his first three starts of the season. With Tyrese Haliburton now with the Pacers, Fox has eclipsed 50 DraftKings in seven of his past 10 starts. Tonight, he is at home in a juicy spot going against a Grizzlies’ club that ranks seventh in pace and second to last in defensive efficiency. By nearly 10 points, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (236 points) and Fox should top 50 fantasy points in this projected shootout.
Value Tier
In Stokastic’s projections, Ben Simmons is anticipated to be a top-three most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a no-brainer fade. As expected, playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, Simmons’ usage has been pitiful at only 13.6%. Through the first four games, he has only scored over 30 DraftKings points once and is averaging an underwhelming 0.86 DraftKings PPM. To make matters worse, the Mavericks rank 11th in defensive efficiency and have stuck to their style of slowing the game down, ranking third to last in pace. Unsurprisingly, Simmons carries a negative leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Another value play that is expected to see high ownership on both sites according to Stokastic’s projections is Keegan Murray. After impressing off the bench in his first two contests of the season and generating 28.4 DraftKings PPG, the rookie will be joining the Kings’ first unit this evening. Murray has seen at least 33 minutes in each of these first two games and should find himself in the 35-40 minute range against the Grizzlies. Murray is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM thus far and should have no issues beating his sub $6,000 price tags in this great spot for the shooter. On top of their fast pace, Memphis is allowing the ninth most made 3-pointers per game. This is perfect for Murray, who has already hoisted up 16 attempts from the beyond the arc in only two games this season while knocking 3-pointers down at a 44% clip. While the ownership is going to be heavy, eating the chalk with Murray is the correct move according to our models here at Stokastic. In the Boom Bust Tool, Murray owns the highest optimal lineup percentage score on the slate for both sites.
As for low-owned value plays that are worth taking a chance on tonight, Lu Dort is a worthwhile risk. After his season-low 6.5 DraftKings point showing versus the Clippers on Tuesday, Dort is projected to come with low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and there is reason to expect a rebound performance. Prior to that quiet effort, he had topped 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts and posted a 23.2% usage rate with Giddey off the court, translating into 0.81 DraftKings PPM. Dort’s ceiling is over 30 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and he carries a top-five leverage score on the slate.
Situations to Monitor
After missing Tuesday’s contest, Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is questionable tonight and if the guard sits again, Spencer Dinwiddie would become one of the best values on the slate in this prime matchup against the Nets. With Hardaway Jr. inactive on Tuesday, Dinwiddie was the primary beneficiary, finishing with a season-best 35 DraftKings points against the Pelicans with a 23.6% usage rate. The guard led Dallas in playing time that night with 38 minutes, which was a huge upgrade after he had seen less than 30 minutes in each of the first two games. Dinwiddie would be locked into a 30+ minute role if Hardaway Jr. remains unavailable and the last 10 times he has cracked the 30-minute mark, he has been efficient with 34.6 DraftKings PPG.
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