NBA DFS High-Upside Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam

Where are the medium-size slates at? There is a 10-game slate tonight with a lot of high-priced studs and value plays that are worth exposure. This article features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pascal Siakam.

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NBA DFS Boom: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,600 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel

26.9% DraftKings Boom/41.4% FanDuel Boom

There are so many players in great spots tonight, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest projection on both sites in Stokastic’s projection model. Giannis is second in points and rebounds per game this season as he continues to dominate with Khris Middleton out of the lineup. He is also shooting a career-high 58.9% from the field and gets a cupcake matchup against the Pistons, who rank 28th in defensive rating this season. Prioritize Giannis on FanDuel, where he has the highest boom percentage on the slate at his relatively cheap salary.

The Bucks are 11.5-point home favorites in this spot, as they are the only remaining unbeaten team in the league. Normally in these situations, it would not be a surprise if they sat Giannis, but with Middleton still out, that chance Giannis sits is diminished. As long as Antetokounmpo is playing, he will be one of the best options on the slate.

The decision between him and Luka Doncic is getting close, but Giannis is still averaging a ridiculous 1.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is an easy play on FanDuel and worth the salary on DraftKings if there is enough value throughout the day.

NBA DFS Boom: Pascal Siakam: $9,500 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel

37.0% DraftKings Boom/36.2% FanDuel Boom

Having Pascal Siakam as center-only eligible on DraftKings makes it a little tough, but with no top-tier center options on this slate, Siakam is the top center play by a comfortable margin. He is averaging a career-high 26.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Siakam also has a 30.6% usage rate and will benefit if Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet is out tonight. Regardless of VanVleet’s status, expect Siakam to play nearly 40 minutes and be a nice pay-up option. In Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, Siakam ranks inside the top three in boom percentage on both sites.

Siakam has scored only 43.7% of his points in the paint, but with the Spurs allowing the second-most points in the paint this season, Siakam could go on a scoring frenzy. Through seven games, he has recorded five double-doubles, including one triple-double. There are plenty of ways he can attack this mediocre Spurs defense.

Despite playing on the road, the Raptors are 7-point favorites and have an implied total of 115.5 points. This is a great slate to pay down at center, but don’t forget about Siakam in this spot. Having dual eligibility on FanDuel makes him a priority on that site.

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NBA DFS Boom: Davion Mitchell: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel

37.6% DraftKings Boom/20.2% FanDuel Boom

The best value on this 10-game slate right now is Kings point guard Davion Mitchell, who will be in the starting lineup with De’Aaron Fox out for the Kings. In a starting role, Mitchell is way too cheap across the industry tonight. Last game, when Fox left early due to injury, Mitchell came in and played a season-high 31 minutes, contributing with 23 points while shooting 9-for-11 from the field and 5-for-6 from behind the arc. Prioritize Mitchell on DraftKings, where he has the highest boom percentage on the slate at 37.6%. He isn’t needed as much on FanDuel but is still a fantastic value play.

Getting a matchup against the Heat isn’t the best spot for an opposing offense, as they play at the fifth-slowest pace and have such a strong defense. However, the cheap salary on both sties makes up for the tough spot, and Mitchell projects to play 34 minutes, which will be impossible to ignore on this slate.

In 19 games without Fox last season, Mitchell averaged 17.7 points, 7.2 assists and 33.3 DraftKings points per game. He will be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, but it is deserving at this salary.

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NBA DFS Bust: Jayson Tatum: $10,000 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/60.6% FanDuel Bust

Jayson Tatum is one of five players priced at $10,000 or more on DraftKings and one of six on FanDuel for this 10-game slate. Despite being off to a great start, averaging a career-high 30.8 points per game while shooting 55.7% from the field, Tatum has a relatively high bust percentage on both sites in a tough matchup against the Cavaliers. Game log watchers will notice these two teams just played, but the game went into overtime and Tatum ended up playing a season-high 42 minutes. He had 32 points, seven rebounds and four assists, and he barely put up over a DraftKings points per minute.

Tatum’s peripherals are another big reason for this fade. He is averaging one fewer potential assist and rebound chance per game this season compared to last, which is concerning. Despite lighting up the scoreboard, Tatum is averaging less than 50 DraftKings points per game, which will not get the job done at this salary, especially when there are so many great options to pay up for. The Cavaliers have the third-best defensive rating and allow only 105.7 points per game. They also play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. Tatum has been scoring well, but this is not a great matchup for fantasy points.

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