Last night went well as I was able to ship the $100 single-entry contest on DraftKings with my lineup that featured Pascal Siakam, who was one of my favorite plays in yesterday’s article. Let’s carry that momentum over to tonight’s small four-game slate. This article features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of our best NBA DFS Picks for the big slate, prioritizing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Vucevic.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Today Boom: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $9,400 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel
30.8% DraftKings Boom/13.6% FanDuel Boom
Apparently, the Thunder have forgotten that they are supposed to be tanking, as they have won three-straight games behind big performances from their point guard Gilgeous-Alexander. In 18 career games with Josh Giddey off the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.7 points per game while shooting 50.5% from the field. He has a 34.7% usage rate while also increasing his rebounding and assist numbers. Prioritize Gilgeous-Alexander on DraftKings, where he is the third-most expensive point guard and has the second-highest boom percentage on the slate.
The Thunder are 4.5-point home favorites against a Magic team with a 1-6 record this season. This game may feature the lowest total on the slate at 215.5 points, but it is impossible to avoid the production that Gilgeous-Alexander has had this season. Through five games, he is averaging a career-high 31 points per game while making 30-straight free throws. The fade makes sense on FanDuel, where Gilgeous-Alexander is the most expensive player on the slate, but he still makes for a great contrarian option given how well he is playing without Giddey on the floor.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Nikola Vucevic: $7,800 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel
48.4% DraftKings Boom/31.5% FanDuel Boom
The best player on this small four-game slate according to our Boom/Bust tool is Bulls center Vucevic. This is the best fantasy environment on the slate with a total of 232 points and the Nets have the second-worst defensive rating to start the season. Their interior presence with Nic Claxton is fairly weak so Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint while cashing in a few triples from behind the arc. Vucevic is averaging a double-double for the sixth-straight season and is priced way too low on both sites for the upside that he can provide.
Not only is Vucevic high in our Boom/Bust Tool, but he also leads the slate with the best value on DraftKings and is third on FanDuel in our Stokastic projections. Even though Zach LaVine is expected to play tonight, getting Vucevic at what feels like a discounted salary is a necessity tonight. He has incredible upside shown by his 23 points and 19 rebounds performance last game while draining five 3-pointers. He also has an 18-point and 23-rebound performance earlier this season and LaVine played in both contests. Vucevic is one of the best plays on the slate tonight.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Aleksej Pokusevski: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel
19.2% DraftKings Boom/16.2% FanDuel Boom
Value is a little tough to come by on this small four-game slate, but let’s go back to the Thunder with third-year forward Aleksej Pokusevski. Over the last two games, Pokusevski has averaged 25 minutes per game, which is a little bit of a surprise not only this season but throughout his career. It is tougher to find value on DraftKings tonight, which is why Pokusevski is coming in third in our Stokastic projections as the best value option. At only $4,200 and projected to play 23.6 minutes, he is going to look great at that salary if we don’t get any news the rest of the day.
There are players we need to pay up for, even Gilgeous-Alexander on his own team, so getting salary relief on Pokusevski is going to pay off well on this small slate. The Magic have allowed the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the league so it’s not out of the question that he who shoots 41% of his field goals from behind the arc. With Giddey out, you can also look to Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins as potential value plays from this team. Monitor our Boom/Bust tool the closer we get to lock, as one of these Thunder value players is going to look great tonight.
NBA DFS Today Bust: Karl-Anthony Towns: $8,800 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel
43.0% DraftKings Bust/60.2% FanDuel Bust
Karl-Anthony Towns being power forward eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel has been a blessing and a curse to start the season. The extra flexibility on getting to one of the best offensive big men helps lineup builds, but playing alongside newly acquired Rudy Gobert has really hurt his ability to rebound at a high rate. Gobert leads the league in rebounds with 14.7 per game, while Towns has seen his rebounding chances drop from 16.3 last year to 13 this year. Towns is averaging a career-low eight rebounds per game, which is guiding his high bust percentage on both sites.
With the emergence of Anthony Edwards and the rise of backup guard Jaylen Nowell, Towns has the third-highest usage rate on the team, which has dipped below 25% this season. The Suns will be without center Deandre Ayton, but they still have capable backups and one of the best defenses in the league. Towns’ production is slowly rising as he gets more comfortable playing the power forward position and with Gobert, but in this spot, he is worth the fade. The salary may be enticing, but there are much better pay-up options on this slate other than Towns.
