Tuesday presents a four-game NBA slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Nov. 1.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
Despite being projected for around 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a stud who is rating as a positive leverage target for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Josh Giddey (ankle) will miss his fourth straight tonight and with the second-year guard sidelined, Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated with 57.2 DraftKings points per game. In the 135 minutes the guard has played without Giddey this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 1.54 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a 34.4% usage rate and a 32.6% assist percentage, both of which are team highs for this situation. Facing a beat-up Magic team that ranks 17th in defensive efficiency for the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is a lock for 50+ fantasy points and is worth investing in on both sites.
Update: Giddey has been upgraded to questionable ahead of Tuesday night’s contest. As a late upgrade, it feels likely the guard will suit up, which would be a blow to Gilgeous-Alexander and Dort (below). With Giddey on the court this season, Gilgeous-Alexander’s fantasy production has decreased to 1.27 DraftKings PPM. While he would still be viable on DraftKings, obviously with a lower ceiling than before, Gigleous-Alexander would be a poor value on FanDuel if Giddey plays. Giddey himself would be a great tournament option if active, barring any limitations, that surely wouldn’t gain much attention. Before spraining his ankle in the third contest of the season, Giddey produced 43.6 DraftKings PPG across his first two starts.Â
Another high-end option that needs to be attacked tonight is Nikola Vucevic. Even with an ownership projection of around 20% for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, Vucevic is rating as a top-10 target on the slate in terms of leverage score, meaning he isn’t gaining enough attention relative to the high ceiling he brings tonight. Backup center Andre Drummond (shoulder) will miss his second consecutive game, which should result in a few extra minutes of action for Vucevic. With Drummond absent this past Saturday night, Vucevic logged a season-high 36 minutes and went off for a massive double-double worth 55.25 DraftKings points in a brutal individual matchup against Joel Embiid. Tonight, Vucevic is in a much better spot, facing a Nets’ club that ranks second to last defensively and is playing their second game in two nights. This contest’s total is the highest on the slate (231 points) and with Brooklyn only favored by two points, Vucevic should receive 35 to 40 minutes of work with Drummond inactive. Vucevic is generating 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season and has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Chris Paul is a chalky expensive player that is worth fading tonight. Deandre Ayton (ankle) will be out for the second contest in a row, but contrary to popular belief, this hasn’t resulted in much of an upgrade for Paul. In the 92 minutes the point guard has played with Ayton off the floor this season, he has provided 1.12 DraftKings PPM, which is a small increase from his 1.08 average for the season. Paul is also facing a Wolves’ defense that ranks seventh in efficiency. The Suns have been stout on the defensive end themselves, ranking fourth in efficiency, and this tilt has a strong chance of going under its 230-point total. Nonetheless, Paul is overpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel right now and is not worth rostering with him forecasted to be a top-10 most-owned player on both sites according to Stokastic’s projections.
Value Tier
With Ben Simmons (knee) out for the second straight game tonight, Nicholas Claxton is slated to be one of the most owned value plays on the slate but is a great example of good chalk at his sub $6,000 salary. With Simmons inactive last night, Claxton posted 42.25 DraftKings points across 31 minutes against the Pacers. Overall, the center has seen the biggest boost sans Simmons this season. In the 101 minutes Claxton has played with Simmons off the court, his usage and rebound rates have risen 3.3 and 4.6 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Barring bad foul trouble – which is unlikely with Claxton only averaging 3.5 fouls per 36 minutes this season – the big man should see over 30 minutes in this matchup against the Bulls that requires his size to guard Vucevic. Claxton should flourish with the expanded workload and is rating as a top-three value for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections.
As mentioned above, the Thunder will continue to be without Giddey tonight and with the guard absent, Jalen Williams is expected to be one of the most popular options on the slate in Stokastic’s projections. In his second game of the season on Saturday, the rookie was effective in 26.5 minutes against the Mavericks, finishing with 29.75 DraftKings points. However, this fantasy score was massively inflated by the 21-year-old racking up four steals and a block, which is highly unlikely to happen again. During his three-year college career at Santa Clara, Williams only averaged 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. The first-round pick obviously has potential, but as a bench player with little data at the NBA level, Williams isn’t worth pursuing with him slated for heavy ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Williams’ ceiling is only around 25 fantasy points and his leverage score is the worst on the slate for both sites. While at a higher cost, the value play we should be attacking from the Thunder tonight is Lu Dort. The wing has topped 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts sans Giddey and his usage ranks second only to Gilgeous-Alexander with Giddey off the floor over the last two seasons at 22.9%. Dort is expected to come with half the ownership of Williams and owns a positive leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Update: As noted above, Giddey has been upgraded to questionable and his presence would hurt Dort’s value significantly. At his current salaries, Dort would be a fringe GPP play at best if Giddey suits up.Â
Taking a flier on Jaylen Nowell also has a ton of merit for this short slate. The guard was a total disaster on Sunday night, recording a season-low 2.0 DraftKings points against the Spurs, which is expected to result in very low ownership for him on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. Prior to this, Nowell was playing like one of the best bench scorers in the league, amassing 27 DraftKings PPG in his first six contests of the season. Despite being a member of this Wolves’ club that features the likes of Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns, Nowell leads the team in usage this season at 26.8%, helping him score 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Even in this difficult spot facing the Suns, Nowell should bounce back tonight and is a terrific way to differentiate yourself in GPPs. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, his leverage score ranks top-10 on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
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