NBA DFS Picks Projections & Ownerhsip for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 3/13/21

Guards

James Harden ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel) – As long as Kevin Durant is out, Harden is in play. I am not sure what to make of the fantasy production for the Nets’ stars when all three of them are active, but luckily, this is a problem we don’t have to worry about in the present. We can count on Harden and Kyrie Irving to play significant roles worthy of top price tags. The two stars are working out their chemistry together as Harden is now established as the primary point guard for the Nets. The defined role is working wonders for Harden’s fantasy production and he’s averaging nearly 11 assists per game over the last month.

Damian Lillard ($10,700 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) – Dame is viable on both sites although he’s a much better option on FanDuel. Despite the inflated usage he has seen over the last month due to the Blazers’ injuries, FanDuel has never priced Lillard up to the levels that DraftKings has. He’s carrying the Blazers’ offense with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined and surprisingly to me, this has kept Portland more than afloat without two of its three best players. The All-Star break was probably welcomed for Dame since he has a usage rating north of 30% in 16 consecutive games.

Trae Young ($9,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) – Like Lillard, Young is a bit too cheap on FanDuel. I don’t think there is any sort of narrative about him missing the All-Star game that is impacting his production in a positive way although it is notable that his usage is up recently. This is a trend that started prior to Young not making it onto an All-Star team. This has led to him scoring over 30 points in six of his last 10 games. He also draws a great matchup against the Kings, who rank last in the league in defensive efficiency.

Kyle Lowry ($8,700 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) – For at least one more game, the Raptors are playing without … well everybody. Malachi Flynn, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Patrick McCaw are all out due to COVID. This leaves Lowry forced to do the heavy lifting on offense and play extended minutes. Until the Raptors get healthy, Lowry is a core play for me unless his price moves in a significant way.

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Anthony Edwards ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) – Edwards will likely always draw comparisons to LaMelo Ball since he went ahead of him in the draft. At this point, I doubt any of us would want Edwards over Ball but this doesn’t make Edwards a bust. He’s progressed as the season has gone along and is showing potential as a scorer. His shot selection and efficiency are questionable but a poor FG% doesn’t hurt us in DFS. What’s more important is that the missed short are not preventing him from continuing to shoot. With his usage on the rise, Edwards has scored over 20 points in four of his last five games.

Ricky Rubio ($5,700 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) – Rubio had a fantasy performance in the Wolves’ last win over the Pelicans but he had the potential for a monster game. He was held back by a blowout. While Rubio doesn’t normally play massive minutes, Jordan McLaughlin and Jarrett Culver are now out in addition to Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell. This leaves Minnesota thin in the backcourt. Rubio shared minutes with Jaylen Nowell last game, which leads me to believe that he should push for 30 minutes as long as this game stays competitive.

Caris LeVert ($7,100 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) – The best story of the day is that LeVert is set to make his debut with the Pacers. After missing an extended period of time due to a mass on his kidney, LeVert is playing for the first time since getting medical examination as a part of the trade revealed his medical condition. It’s not clear what we should expect from LeVert after such a long layoff but I don’t think this matters on FanDuel. They have priced LeVert all the way down to nearly min price. We need an update on his playing time, but as long as he is allowed to play 20 minutes, he should return value. There is no need to consider him on DraftKings.

DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) – Bembry is in play on both sites but a stronger play on DraftKings. He has a cheaper price and more positional flexibility. In the Raptors’ last game, Bembry started and played 37 minutes. As a decent per minute fantasy producer, it’s hard to ignore him as long as he starts again. He’s played some massive workloads when starting in games that the Raptors’ were shorthanded for. We can ignore Bembry if he winds up in a bench role.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry, James Harden, DeAndre’ Bembry

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, Caris LeVert

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/13/2021″ team=”timberwolves”]

Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) – Giannis is my overall favorite option to pay up for on both sites. Not only do I have him projected for more fantasy points than any other player on the slate, his power forward eligibility is favorable since it’s one of the toughest positions to fill tonight. He opened the start of the second half of the season with a triple-double and MVP voters have to feel uncomfortable. The race is wide open and we know that people don’t want to vote for Giannis. They might have no choice if he keeps this up and the Bucks continue to roll. They have won seven of their last eight games.

Jerami Grant ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) – Grant is rounding back into form. He hit a bit of a slump after a strong start to the season and looks reenergized now. The Pistons are also his team now that Blake Griffin is gone. The offensive flows entirely through Grant and he put up a 43.1% usage rate in the Pistons’ first game back after the break. There is also a bit of playing time and usage up for grabs in the offense since the Pistons traded away Svi Mykhailiuk last night.

Norman Powell ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) – All five of the Raptors starters are strong plays today. There’s no way around it because of all the players missing for this team. This seems like a lofty price tag to pay for Powell but it isn’t when looking at his recent games. He always seems to thrive when the Raptors are shorthanded and need to lean on him for some extra scoring. Powell is averaging over 40 fantasy points since the Raptors were hit by COVID and he’s scored at least 30 points in three of his last four games.

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Chris Boucher ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) – The Raptors are playing a tight rotation so Boucher is a strong play even if he comes off the bench. In a reserve role, he played over 30 minutes in each of the last two games. Boucher is a great fantasy producer, scoring 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season so we should expect around 40 fantasy points if his minutes from the last couple of games hold. It’s unfortunate that we need to see so many Toronto players miss games to get extended run out of Boucher because he’s great for fantasy.

Stanley Johnson ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) – In hindsight, I should have committed a section of this article to Toronto, labeled it Raptors and said to play everybody. This is by far the team I will get the most exposure to tonight. Without rehashing the injury report again, Johnson is one of the many players on this team that is playing extended minutes and seeing extra production with the Raptors shorthanded. Neither site has done anything to adjust for his price after a couple of strong value games in a row.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Norman Powell, Stanley Johnson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks:Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chris Boucher, Norman Powell, Stanley Johnson

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Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,700 FanDuel) – This entire slate hinges on the health of Jokic. He briefly left last night’s game after turning his ankle. He was able to make it back into the game and lead the Nuggets to a win but he’s listed as questionable for tonight. I think he’s more likely to play than sit although we have to prepare for the possibility that he won’t play. If he’s out, we can expect extra minutes for Paul Millsap while Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray pick up extra usage. If Jokic plays, he could go way under owned if there isn’t an update on his status until after lock.

Clint Capela ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) – Capela is more of a play on DraftKings than FanDuel. Not only is he $800 cheaper, we can also roster multiple center on DraftKings so he’s easier to fit into lineups. His rebounding numbers are ridiculous as of late with an average of 16.7 boards per game over the last week. These numbers are there for him and we might see a bit more offense than normal since the Kings are last in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Enes Kanter ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) – The Blazers are close to getting healthy bodies back in the frontcourt. Harry Giles, Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic are all expected back in the near future. In the meantime, the Blazers are getting as much out of Kanter as they can. Along with Lillard, Kanter is the only consistent fantasy producer on the team at the moment. He has six consecutive double-doubles.

Aron Baynes ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) – I have to cap the article by including one more player from Toronto. Baynes scored over 30 fantasy points in each of the last two games and is one of just six players currently playing significant minutes for Toronto. There is no amount of Raptors that are too many to roster tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela, Aron Baynes

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Enes Kanter, Aron Baynes

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.