The basketball gods have blessed us with a seven-game Saturday night slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Saturday, Nov. 5 including Trae Young and Malcolm Brogdon.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
With seven games on tap, ownership is expected to be pretty spread amongst the studs, mostly leaving it up to the DFS player on who they want to prioritize. First and foremost, Trae Young is in a great spot against New Orleans and looks to be severely under owned with only 13.80% of rosters expected to have him on DraftKings. Averaging a ho-hum 47.8 DraftKings points per game to start the season, Trae Young is questionable tonight with a left eye contusion, but after re-appearing in Wednesday’s game after he got hurt, he should lean toward playing on Saturday night. Coming off his two worst games of the season, expect to see the best Young has to offer in a matchup with Zion Williamson and the Pelicans, and he offers really nice leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Malcolm Brogdon also finds himself in a great spot tonight, and priced at $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel, he’s another really strong leverage play across both sites. Averaging 25.2 DraftKings points through Boston’s first eight games, Brogdon has been solid so far this season and he should see a nice boost with Al Horford out this evening. Projected to be decently under owned across both sites, Malcolm Brogdon is projected to be in the optimal lineup 26.50% of the time on DraftKings with only 23.30% of the field expected to roster him. On FanDuel, where he’s more expensive, Brogdon is expected to be optimal 12.90% of the time with only 10.10% of the field projected to roster him.
One player that is rating poorly from a leverage perspective on DraftKings in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth fading tonight is Nicolas Claxton. Coming off a monster performance last night against the Wizards, Claxton is projected to be 26.70% owned on DraftKings with an optimal percentage of only 16.90%. Averaging 30.1 DraftKings points per game, the Nets center has certainly been solid this season, but with other big men like Isaiah Hartenstein and Clint Capela in better spots, it might be wise to stay away from Claxton in tournaments.
Value Tier
Speaking of Hartenstein, the Knicks center is expected to be the chalk of the slate, projecting to be the most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Averaging 24.6 DraftKings points per game so far this season, Hartenstein has been productive in his first year in New York and with Mitchell Robinson out tonight, he looks like an elite value play in all formats. Still priced on both sites for Robinson to be in, the former Clipper should play a ton of minutes tonight, and expect the ball to be in his hands quite a bit. While he’s expected to be extremely chalky and fading that ownership might seem intriguing in tournaments, Hartenstein is projected to be optimal 30.70% of the time on DraftKings and 37.40% of the time on FanDuel. Probably a slightly better play on DraftKings where he’s projected a little bit less ownership, Hartenstein is a fantastic play everywhere tonight.
Situations to Monitor
With a bunch of teams on the second half of back-to-back games, there are questionable tags littered all over the slate. Both Al Horford and Rudy Gobert have already been ruled out, and aside from the Trae Young news, we are also waiting on the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who got downgraded to questionable early this afternoon. Also questionable are Anfernee Simons and Terry Rozier, as the latter looks to return to the Hornets after missing the past seven games.Â
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