NBA DFS Projections Today: Nikola Jokic Reins Supreme (March 2)

Value is limited on this evening’s 10-game slate, but Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis stand out early. However, things can change in a hurry, so be sure to pay attention to the news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to listen in on smart analysis of how breaking news affects the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help you construct DFS lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | March 3

High-End Tier

Nikola Jokic ($11,800) is the highest projected player on the slate against the Grizzlies. Jokic is projected for 15% ownership with a 24% chance of booming and 13% chance of optimality, according to the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Anthony Davis ($10,200) is a great point-per-dollar play with LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell out tonight against the Timberwolves. Davis is projected for 30% ownership with a 35% chance of booming and 23% chance of optimality.

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Mid-Tier

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,500) currently has the top leverage score on the entire slate against the Trail Blazers. Bogdanovic is projected for just 1% ownership with a 7% chance of booming and a 6% chance of being optimal.

John Collins ($4,600) also has a nice leverage score. Collins is projected for 1% ownership with a 5% chance of booming and a 5% chance of being optimal.

Lastly, Malik Beasley ($5,000) remains a nice point-per-dollar option for the depleted Lakers. Beasley is projected for 18% ownership with a 19% chance of booming and an 11% chance of being optimal.

Value Tier

Cole Anthony ($4,100) is the best point-per-dollar play on a slate that lacks great value. Anthony has a nice matchup with a Hornets team ranked fifth in the league in pace and 22nd in defensive rating. He is projected for 35% ownership with a 30% chance of booming and a 23% chance of being optimal.

Willy Hernangomez ($4,300) is likely to get the start tonight against the Warriors with Jonas Valanciunas out. Hernangomez is projected for 27% ownership with a 32% chance of booming and a 21% chance of being optimal. It will be important to pay attention to New Orleans’ starting lineup, as Jaxson Hayes ($3,800) would become the priority over Hernangomez if Hayes gets the start at center.

More value is likely to open up as news comes out. Kawhi Leonard is already out for the Clippers, and several players will get bumps if Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are ruled out as well. Their absences would meaningfully alter the NBA DFS projections.

Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.