Leveraging NBA DFS ownership is one of the keys to building successful lineups and cashing at the end of the night. On Sunday, ownership should be spread among the studs. Knowing the DFS ownership allows us to analyze how to play high- and low-owned players.
Let’s use Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how we can build unique lineups in tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks for Sunday, Oct. 30 including LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.
NBA DFS Ownership & Optimizer Plays (Oct 30)
High-End Tier
With ownership spread on this seven-game slate, it’s up to the DFS player on who they want to prioritize. First and foremost, LeBron James is in a great spot against Denver and looks to be severely under-owned with only 5.70% rosters expected to have him on DraftKings. Averaging a LeBron-like 52.5 DraftKings points per game to start the season, King James will look to continue his dominant ways facing a Nuggets team that ranks in the bottom half of the league against opposing point guards, shooting guards and small forwards. With Anthony Davis questionable after sitting out Friday night against the Timberwolves, LeBron could be in an even better spot as the day goes on. Projected to be in the optimal lineup 12.60% of the time, James has one of the highest leverage scores on the slate and he looks like an elite spend up option in GPPs.
Jaylen Brown is also too cheap for his upside tonight, priced at $8,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Averaging 42.3 DraftKings points through Boston’s first five games, Brown has been phenomenal so far this season, and he’s in a great spot tonight matched up with a Wizards team that has gotten torched by opposing small forwards. Projected to be considerably under owned across both sites, Brown is expected to be in the optimal lineup 18.20% of the time on DraftKings with only 13.20% ownership. Similarly, on FanDuel, Brown is expected to be optimal 22.80% of the time with only 19.60% of the field projected to roster him.
One player that is rating poorly from a leverage perspective on DraftKings in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth fading tonight is Chris Paul. While he’s in a great spot against Houston, CP3 is projected to be 30.50% owned on DraftKings with an optimal percentage of only 19.70%. Averaging 35.1 DraftKings points per game, the Suns superstar has certainly been solid this season, but with other similarly priced players in better spots, it might be wise to stay away from Paul in tournaments.
Value Tier
With the Spurs missing Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson and Jeremy Sochan tonight, Blake Wesley is expected to be the chalk of the slate, projecting to be the most rostered player on DraftKings in Stokastic’s projections. Drafted 22nd overall pick last year, the Notre Dame product should see a huge role for San Antonio tonight and priced at $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, he looks like the top value play on the slate. Projected to be optimal 37.90% of the time on DraftKings, Wesley is pulling a good of amount ownership with 41.90% of rosters expected to have him. While he’s still a good play on DraftKings, he looks even better on FanDuel where he’s projected to be optimal 23.50% of the time with only 21.50% of the field expected to roster him.
Situations to Monitor
Aside from the Spurs news and Anthony Davis being questionable, there aren’t many situations to monitor on tonight’s slate. Klay Thompson is out for the Warriors after playing 32 minutes in Charlotte last night, putting everyone else on Golden State more in play on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Jordan Poole is getting the bulk of the ownership, but both Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins look like better tournament options across both sites.
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