In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 3
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom CandidatesÂ
Bradley Beal vs. Nets: $9,100/$9,800
33.6% DraftKings Boom/32.5% FanDuel Boom
There’s plenty of price discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel today. One of which is with Beal, who is given the highest probability to boom on DraftKings, but he’s a little further down the list for FanDuel. While Russell Westbrook is back in the lineup tonight, Beal has proven he is consistent no matter what. Beal has scored a minimum of 29 real points in every game this season, and he also typically adds a few rebounds, assists and steals. With no player on Brooklyn capable of truly matching up with Beal in the starting unit, he is a high-ceiling, high-floor play.
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Jusuf Nurkic vs. Warriors: $6,400/$6,000
24.6% DraftKings Boom/45.9% FanDuel Boom
We have all been waiting for the Nurkic blowup game this season, but could this be it? The Trail Blazers easily handled the Warriors in the last game, which led to limited minutes for Nurkic (17). He still turned in 22.6 FanDuel points (23.0 DraftKings points) in his limited time. If the game stays closer, Nurkic could approach 30 minutes. He should face relatively little resistance defensively, so floor time is all we’re really banking on for this blowup NBA DFS spot for the big man.
D’Angelo Russell vs. Nuggets: $7,400/$7,200
28.0% DraftKings Boom/37.5% FanDuel Boom
Much like Nurkic, floor time due to game script is the biggest worry with Russell. The Timberwolves have lost their last three games by an average of 26.7 points. So, if Minnesota can keep this game a bit closer, we shouldn’t have any issues getting Russell on the floor in the mid-30s for minutes. In his only game against the Nuggets as a member of the Timberwolves last season, Russell put up 41.75 DraftKings points. He is a true boom/bust player this season, and the scoreboard will likely determine which way that swings. A game stack could be a smart way to play Russell.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Draymond Green vs. Trail Blazers: $5,800/$6,000
83.5% DraftKings Bust/76.0% FanDuel Bust
Steve Kerr said Green’s minutes should “inch up” today, which is his second game of the season. Green played just 17 minutes last game, so I cannot imagine an “inch” would be much over 20 minutes. He is not likely to put up much more than a fantasy point per minute, which means there is a high likelihood that Green will be a bust in NBA DFS today. There is no need to jump the gun and play Green too soon.
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