This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
Click Here for the No House Advantage Projections
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 27
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5): 214
Detroit Pistons
Blake Griffin and Killian Hayes are out tonight. Derrick Rose is no longer on the injury report. Griffin’s absence is most likely going to lead to another start for Saddiq Bey. Rose’s return adds more risk to Delon Wright.
There isn’t much that stands out to me from Detroit in the context of a 12-game slate. Jerami Grant is the best fantasy option as he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.9 percent usage rate and 36.2 minutes per game this season. He is expensive, however, and it is a below average matchup against a Cleveland team that ranks 28th in pace and eighth in defensive rating this season. Grant has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points with a 27.7 percent usage rate in 282 minutes without Griffin on the floor compared to 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate in 338 minutes alongside him so his ceiling is a little bit higher than normal tonight. Still, he doesn’t stand out on this massive slate.
Rose and Mason Plumlee are both inexpensive, but they have concerns of their own. Rose missed Detroit’s last two games so there is a chance that they are relatively cautious with him tonight. He has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team in usage rate, but he has only averaged 23.8 minutes per game. Plumlee has averaged 26.6 minutes per game and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, but he takes up a center slot and the position is absolutely loaded tonight.
Bey has averaged 27.6 minutes per game in his four starts this season with 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. He only played about 23 minutes in his last start, however, as Josh Jackson closed over him. He is a low-floor value option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($8,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($8,400), Mason Plumlee ($4,400)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr. is questionable, as is Lamar Stevens. Kevin Love, Matthew Dellavedova and Marques Bolden remain out.
Cleveland is a difficult team to trust as they are getting closer to full strength and they added bodies in Taurean Prince and Jarrett Allen. Their salaries are starting to fall, however, and they have a favorable matchup against a weak Detroit team. There is tournament upside to be had here.
If Nance is out, I expect that Prince will start in his place again. Prince started last game and played 24.9 minutes, but he dealt with first half foul trouble. I think we could see 28 to 30 minutes from him if Nance is out and he can avoid fouls. If that is the case, he would project as a decent value option but not a priority on the slate.
Andre Drummond played several minutes alongside Allen with Nance out last game, but that was against a big Lakers’ frontcourt. I think that is less likely tonight against the Pistons, even if Nance sits. Drummond has averaged 24.7 minutes per game in four games with Allen active this season but, if this game is competitive, I think it is likely that we get 26 to 28 minutes from Drummond. This makes him a risky play at a loaded center position, but he has also averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute this season. He should have his way against the Pistons frontcourt, so I think he offers some upside in tournaments as long as he is low-owned.
Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are both inexpensive and look like viable guard options. Sexton played 29.6 minutes against the Lakers last game, but he did miss the final five minutes of the first half due to a third foul. I think that Sexton’s minutes floor is lower than it was earlier in the season now that the Cavs have so many healthy bodies, but he still has 34-plus minute upside. He is second to Drummond with a 29.1 percent usage rate this season and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. Garland’s minutes have been limited since his return from injury, but he played about 26 minutes against the Lakers. That was the most minutes he has played in the three games since returning, so maybe we see him push 30 minutes soon. Garland has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season with a team-leading 26.6 percent assist rate.
Allen has averaged 26.3 minutes per game since joining Cleveland, but that includes a double overtime game where he played about 10 additional minutes. Excluding those minutes, he has averaged about 24.3 minutes per game. It’s tough to look to him at center even though he is inexpensive and has a high ceiling if Drummond were to get in foul trouble, but he does look appealing on FanDuel where he is a power forward.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,400), Collin Sexton ($6,600), Darius Garland ($4,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,800), Jarrett Allen ($5,200)
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Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic (-1.5): 223
Sacramento Kings
Hassan Whiteside is probable. Nemanja Bjelica is doubtful. DaQuan Jeffries and Jahmi’us Ramsey are both out. None of this news really impacts anything.
Sacramento’s matchup against the Magic is mediocre, but several Kings players do have upside at their salaries. De’Aaron Fox has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season and 31.3 minutes per game. Fox’s minutes were limited by injuries at times this season, however, so he is likely to play 34-plus minutes tonight assuming the game is competitive.
Marvin Bagley and Tyrese Haliburton have averaged just shy of one fantasy point per minute this season. Their minutes are somewhat suspect as Luke Walton doesn’t have consistent closing rotations, but Bagley has played at least 28 minutes in four straight games and Haliburton has 30-minute upside. I think that Bagley is the more trustworthy of the two, but both have the potential to pay off their salaries nicely in large field tournaments.
Richaun Holmes has averaged one DraftKings point per minute this season and has averaged 32.1 minutes per game over his last 10 games. Whiteside’s return could cut into Holmes’ playing time a little bit and the opportunity cost at the position is high, making him nothing more than a secondary tournament option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,700), Marvin Bagley III ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,900)
Orlando Magic
Michael Carter-Williams is questionable. Markelle Fultz, Chuma Okeke, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu remain out.
Orlando gets the best matchup in NBA DFS as they take on the Sacramento Kings tonight. Sacramento has allowed four more points per 100 possessions than the next-worst defense in the NBA this season and they have played at the 10th-fastest pace. Nikola Vucevic is in line for a monster game tonight as he should get whatever he wants against this Sacramento frontcourt. Vucevic leads the team in usage rate and rebounding rate this season and he is third in assist rate. Overall, he has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute and he has averaged 34.8 minutes per game over his last 10 games.
Aaron Gordon has taken on a bigger role offensively this season, posting the highest assist rate on the team outside of Fultz. In addition to his 22.1 percent assist rate, Gordon has a 24 percent usage rate and 13.9 percent rebounding rate. He has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. He played 33.5 minutes against Charlotte last game after missing a couple of games with an injury, which is a great sign that he won’t be limited moving forward.
Cole Anthony has started eight games with Gordon active since Fultz’s injury. In those games, he has averaged 29.3 minutes per game and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He is secondary option tonight, but he does have a high ceiling because of how bad the Kings are defensively.
Khem Birch has been the back-up center behind Vucevic, but he has also been playing minutes alongside him. Birch has averaged 24.6 minutes per game over his last 10 games and he played 25.8 minutes last game. It’s very difficult to use a center spot on him on DraftKings despite the $3,800 salary, but he is a $3,900 power forward on FanDuel. Birch has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,200), Aaron Gordon ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,400), Aaron Gordon ($6,800), Cole Anthony ($5,000)
Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets (+2): 220
Indiana Pacers
Domantas Sabonis is questionable after leaving his last game early. T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert remain out.
If Sabonis plays, he should be able to post a big game against Charlotte’s frontcourt. Sabonis has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 35.1 minutes per game in seven games without Warren or Oladipo this season. In a competitive game, it is likely that we see 37 or 38 minutes from Sabonis. If he sits, my expectation is that Jeremy Lamb joins the starting lineup as he did in the second half against Toronto. Lamb played 33 total minutes in that game and looks like a strong value against his former team if Sabonis is out.
Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 35.9 minutes per game in the seven games that he has played without Warren and Oladipo. I expect his per-minute production to increase, however, as he has a 28.6 percent usage rate and 31.2 percent assist rate in those games compared to his season average of 25.3 percent and 30.3 percent, yet he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute for the season. If Sabonis sits, Brogdon will take on an even bigger role. He has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.5 percent usage rate and 39.7 percent assist rate in 129 minutes without Sabonis, Oladipo or Warren on the floor since the start of last season.
Myles Turner has been great this season, leading the NBA in blocks per game and averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He has averaged 34.3 minutes per game over his last 10 games and his playing time and production becomes more solidified if Sabonis is out. Turner has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.3 percent usage rate and 13.9 percent rebounding rate in 226 minutes without Sabonis, Oladipo or Warren on the floor since last season. Of those 226 minutes, Brogdon was on the floor for 82 of them. Turner averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute but still maintained a 23.2 percent usage rate and 14.9 percent rebounding rate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 — Questionable), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 — better if Sabonis is out), Myles Turner ($7,500 — better if Sabonis is out), Jeremy Lamb ($5,100 — better if Sabonis is out and he starts)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,200), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300), Myles Turner ($7,100), Jeremy Lamb ($5,200) — Same caveats as listed above.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are at full strength tonight in a mediocre matchup against the Pacers, who rank 17th in pace and 15th in defensive rating this season. None of Charlotte’s players stand out as top options at their salaries, but several of them offer GPP upside.
Gordon Hayward offers the best combination of playing time and per-minute production as he has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and 35.1 minutes per game this season. He leads the team in usage rate and minutes per game and is also third in assist rate.
LaMelo Ball leads the team with 1.26 DraftKings points per minute, but he has only averaged 24.6 minutes per game this season. He has the potential to play 30 minutes, but he is also capable of playing 21 minutes as he did last game against the Magic. His salary is decreasing, which makes it a good time to buy low and take a shot at his massive ceiling in tournaments. Just keep in mind that he has a relatively low floor for his salary.
Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier are second and third in average playing time with 34 and 33.9 minutes per game. Graham is the main facilitator with a 27.1 percent assist rate while Rozier is more likely to have a big scoring night. Graham has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and Rozier has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,500), LaMelo Ball ($6,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($8,100), LaMelo Ball ($6,400)
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks (+6.5): 239
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets currently have their full rotation available tonight, so we will see another game with all three of Irving, Durant and Harden available.
Whenever all three players are available, it takes value away from pretty much anyone else on the team. It also makes it difficult to trust any of the main three players, though they still certainly have massive ceilings and are worth a look in tournaments.
Kyrie Irving has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.5 percent usage rate and 19.8 percent assist rate in the three games that the Nets have played at full strength so far. He played 39.8 minutes against Miami last game and I think we can expect at least 35 or 36 minutes from him regularly. James Harden has been surprisingly quiet with the Nets so far, but it is probably just a matter of time before we see him take over a game. Still, his 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 19.8 percent usage rate through his first three games with the team fully healthy highlights the risk that we take in paying up for Brooklyn players any given night. Harden does lead the team with a 36 percent assist rate. Kevin Durant is my bet to be the most consistent player of the group as I think this is still his team and he also contributes better rebounding numbers than Harden or Irving. Through three games together, Durant has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.6 percent usage rate and 23.2 percent assist rate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($10,300), Kyrie Irving ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($9,800), Kyrie Irving ($9,200)
Atlanta Hawks
Clint Capela, Rajon Rondo and Cam Reddish are all questionable. Capela and Rondo played last night while Reddish was out. Danilo Gallinari is probable.
For now, I’m assuming that all of the questionable players play. If that is the case, Reddish looks like a decent value at a cheap price point in a great matchup against a Brooklyn team that is much more interested in scoring than defending. If Reddish sits, it should open up more run for Kevin Huerter and De’Andre Hunter but they are both getting expensive.
The main targets, as always, are Trae Young and Capela. Young has had some struggles from three this season, but he has still averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.7 percent usage rate and 40.6 percent assist rate. There is no doubt he has a massive ceiling and his salary is lower than normal for a great matchup. Capela is priced up, but he has been phenomenal this season and I think at least some of that production is here to stay. Capela’s rebounding rate is 24.4 percent this season, which is up from 21.4 percent last season. Without Russell Westbrook on the floor last season, however, Capela had a 24.0 percent rebounding rate. Young won’t take rebounds from Capela like Westbrook did, so I expect the excellent rebounding numbers to continue. One spot where I expect Capela to drop off a bit is in his playing time. During this stretch of monster games that has raised his salary, Capela has approached 40 minutes several times. I don’t expect that to continue to be the case, but I do think he consistently plays 34 to 36 minutes which still gives him a high ceiling. I think he is slightly overpriced for his median projection, but that should keep his ownership down and he obviously has the ability to drastically outperform his salary.
John Collins gets a bump if Capela doesn’t play tonight as he would get the majority of his minutes at center and Collins has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute at center since the start of last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,200), John Collins ($7,700 if Capela is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Andre Hunter ($5,600), Kevin Huerter ($4,800 if Reddish is out)
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors (+7): 227.5
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee should be at full strength tonight against a possibly short-handed Toronto team.
Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team in usage rate, assist rate and fantasy points per minute. He is also second in rebounding rate. Antetokounmpo has averaged 32.7 minutes per game over his last 10 games and 1.58 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is always one of the highest ceiling plays on the board.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are the next two highest usage players to look to if you can’t afford Antetokounmpo but want a piece of the Bucks’ offense. Middleton in particular has been excellent with 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. He is second on the team in usage rate and assist rate. Holiday has seen a dip in production playing alongside Antetokounmpo and Middleton this season, but he has still averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. He is the clear third option, but he is also less expensive than the other two.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), Khris Middleton ($7,900)
Toronto Raptors
We are waiting on big injury news here with Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby both questionable.
Kyle Lowry returned last game and is a decent mid-range option along with Fred VanVleet. Lowry has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season while VanVleet has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. Both players would be expected to see an uptick in production if Siakam is out as well.
Chris Boucher played 29.7 minutes last game and he remains a low-floor, high-ceiling option. We will only see 22 minutes in some games, but we can see close to 30 minutes in others and he has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is easier to roster on FanDuel because he is power forward eligible.
If Anunoby and Siakam both miss this game, Stanley Johnson should be in line for a start. He played about 31 minutes the last game that he started and has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,500), Fred VanVleet ($7,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,500), Fred VanVleet ($7,900), Chris Boucher ($6,500)
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat (+6): 219.5
Denver Nuggets
P.J. Dozier is the only player missing from Denver’s normal rotation tonight against Miami.
Nikola Jokic stands out as the top option from Denver, though it may be somewhat difficult to get him into lineups since he is expensive and also a center. Jokic has been one of the most productive players in the NBA this season with 1.62 DraftKings points per minute and 35.6 minutes per game. He has a tough individual matchup against Bam Adebayo, but he does so many things well on the floor that it’s tough to really limit his fantasy production.
Because Jokic is dominant in all areas of the game, it limits the appeal of the rest of the players on Denver. Jamal Murray has a high ceiling based on talent, but his usage and assist numbers are down this season, as is his per-minute fantasy production. Michael Porter Jr. has played well off the bench since returning from injury, but he is priced to play 32-plus minutes per game and we can’t rely on that at this point.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,200)
Miami Heat
We have a lot of news that we’re waiting on here. Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Gabe Vincent and Avery Bradley are all questionable. Jimmy Butler, Maurice Harkless, Chris Silva and Meyers Leonard remain out.
If all of the questionable players play, I won’t have much interest in anything from Miami, though Adebayo would still be a secondary option. If Herro sits, Dragic and Kendrick Nunn would continue to see increased roles. Both players are priced up enough that they are secondary options in tournaments, but they would have a path to success. If Herro and Dragic are out, Nunn would see his 33 to 34 minutes solidified and become a strong value. Adebayo would also benefit if more ball-handlers are out as his assist numbers should rise. We do know that Butler is out, however, and Adebayo has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Butler since the start of last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($9,400), Goran Dragic ($5,800 if Herro is out)
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers (+3.5): 221.5
Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis is probable and LeBron James is questionable, as usual.
Davis and James are always the top options from the Lakers since their relatively low average playing time keeps their prices in check. Both players typically play 34-plus minutes in competitive games, however, so their average playing time doesn’t mean they have low ceilings. We are finally starting to see James’ salary pull away from Davis a little bit, especially on DraftKings. James has been the better fantasy producer this season with 1.48 DraftKings points per minute compared to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute for Davis. They both have high ceilings, however, and are viable tournament options.
Dennis Schroder is the third scoring option on the Lakers and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. It’s difficult to expect big games out of him since he has to share touches with James and Davis, but his salary accounts for that. He is the type of player that I avoid when his salary rises and look to in tournaments when it falls, like it is right now.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,900), Anthony Davis ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,400), Anthony Davis ($10,100)
Philadelphia 76ers
Seth Curry is listed as available. Vincent Poirier and Mike Scott remain out.
Joel Embiid has a tough matchup tonight against the best defensive team in the league, and I think that will make it difficult to prioritize him as a core play given the other excellent options at the position and in his pricing tier. That said, the matchup should force his ownership down and he is capable of giving us 60-plus fantasy points in any matchup. Embiid has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team in usage percentage at 31.8 percent. He also is available at a reduced salary because of the matchup.
I don’t see much else to like in this spot. The Sixers are essentially fully healthy, so many of their secondary options are overpriced. Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons both have the talent to exceed their salaries, but there is no shortage of high-upside, low-owned players to look at one a 12-game slate without having to turn to Harris or Simmons in this matchup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,800)
Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs (+4): 223
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are close to full strength tonight against San Antonio with only Payton Pritchard and Romeo Langford sidelined. Their absences shouldn’t have any DFS impact.
Tonight will be the first game this season that Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum have both been active. The result is that the pieces that we normally look to on Boston could see a slight decrease in their average fantasy production, but they still have high ceilings and are reasonably priced.
Tatum played 31.3 minutes against the Bulls on Monday, which was nice to see since it was his first game since January 8th. Hopefully he is able to give us 34 or 35 minutes per game sooner than later. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6 percent usage percentage and 18.1 percent assist percentage so far this season. While those rates could decrease slightly with Walker active, Tatum should remain a strong per-minute producer. The same can be said for Jaylen Brown, who has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game in 11 games with Tatum active this season. Walker’s return could take a couple shots and assist opportunities away, but Brown is still a great fantasy producer who gives us a lot of upside as a mid-range small forward option.
Walker’s playing time was limited when he first returned, but he played 28.6 minutes two games ago and 23.8 minutes in three quarters of a blowout in his last game. I think we can expect about 30 minutes from Walker if tonight’s game is competitive. That makes him a risky option at his price point since we an find other players that project for more minutes, but he averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games alongside Tatum and Brown without Gordon Hayward last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,700), Jaylen Brown ($8,300), Kemba Walker ($6,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None (prices all much less favorable than on DraftKings compared to alternatives)
San Antonio Spurs
Derrick White remains out for the Spurs, which solidifies Dejounte Murray’s minutes. The rest of the team is healthy.
The Spurs have a relatively difficult matchup against the Celtics, but their salaries also lave plenty of room for upside in a couple of spots. On DraftKings, Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan are clearly priced down for the matchup. Excluding the game where he was injured after one minute, Murray has averaged about 32.5 minutes per game without White this season. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.9 percent usage percentage, 13.4 percent rebounding percentage and 27 percent assist percentage in 12 games with DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge active this season.
DeRozan was priced up due to an increase in production while Aldridge was out, but his salary has now fallen to $7,100 on DraftKings. DeRozan has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.2 percent usage percentage and 29.5 percent assist percentage in 34 minutes per game in 12 games alongside Murray and Aldridge this season.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been terrible by his standards this season, averaging only 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in 26.4 minutes per game with Murray and DeRozan active this season. His rebounding percentage is only 7.6 percent, which isn’t inspiring from the Spurs’ center. His salary has fallen as a result, however, and I’m not completely ready to write off Aldridge since we have years of consistent production. His salary is most favorable on FanDuel at only $5,700.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray ($6,600), DeMar DeRozan ($7,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,700)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns (-7.5): 216
Oklahoma City Thunder
Al Horford and George Hill are both questionable. Ty Jerome, Josh Hall and Trevor Ariza remain out. If Horford misses another game, Isaiah Roby should start and projects as a strong value at power forward. If Hill misses, we could get another start from Theo Maledon who played 22 minutes last game against Portland.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the highest upside play on the Thunder, but he is also really expensive compared to some other options on this slate. He leads the team in minutes per game, usage percentage, assist percentage and fantasy points per minute. There is no doubt that he can give us a big game tonight, but there are a lot of options on this slate and most of them are either less expensive and/or have a higher chance of success.
Darius Bazley and Lu Dort both look like decent tournament values as they aren’t top plays on the slate but they should be low-owned and they have plenty of opportunities for success on this team. Bazley played 28.8 minutes last game while Dort play 30 minutes and they are both averaging 28 to 30 minutes per game this season. Bazley has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute and Dort has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute. Neither is a priority, but they do offer cheap upside.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Isaiah Roby ($5,000 if Horford is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Isaiah Roby ($4,500)
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix will be without Devin Booker, Dario Saric and Damian Jones.
Chris Paul looks like a strong mid-range option in a favorable matchup against his former team. He had a 26.6 percent usage percentage and 62.8 percent assist percentage in his only game without Booker this season, playing 42 total minutes against the Nuggets on Saturday with 32 coming in regulation. Paul has played a total of 160 minutes without Booker on the floor this season and has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute.
DeAndre Ayton is inexpensive and has one of the highest ceilings available for mid-range centers. Ayton has the potential to play a few extra minutes without Dario Saric and his usage percentage should increase without Booker. He has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 128 minutes without Booker on the floor so far this season and he had a 23.8 percent usage percentage in the one full game he has played without Booker.
Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder were the other three starters for Phoenix with Booker out last game. All three players project similarly, but Bridges looks like the top option as he is likely to play the most minutes and he has also been the best per-minute fantasy producer this season with 0.88 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,600), DeAndre Ayton ($7,300), Mikal Bridges ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,400), DeAndre Ayton ($8,300), Mikal Bridges ($5,400)
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-2.5): 220
Dallas Mavericks
Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell and Josh Richardson are all questionable. Maxi Kleber remains out.
I can’t really say much with confidence about Dallas without knowing the status of two of their starters, but we do know that Luka Doncic is one of the highest ceiling plays on the slate regardless of who else is active. Doncic has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute this season and the tough matchup with Utah doesn’t lower his ceiling, it just makes it a little bit less likely that he reaches it.
Kristaps Porzingis is a secondary tournament option, but he has more value if he starts at center. The problem is that we saw Willie Cauley-Stein start last game against Nikola Jokic and the matchup tonight against Rudy Gobert is another spot where I would expect Cauley-Stein to start.
I don’t have much interest in the rest of Dallas because they’re priced efficiently for the team to be short-handed and, if the team isn’t short-handed, they obviously become even less appealing.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,500)
Utah Jazz
Donovan Mitchell is out and Derrick Favors is questionable.
Jordan Clarkson or Joe Ingles will most likely replace Mitchell in the starting lineup and both should see increased playing time.
Clarkson has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 26.7 percent usage percentage and has a good chance of playing 30-plus minutes tonight. Ingles has been coming off the bench and playing minutes into the low-20s, but he is also likely to give us at least 28-30 minutes tonight at a cheap price tag. He has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season.
In addition to Clarkson and Ingles, Mike Conley could play a few more minutes and it is likely that his usage percentage increases. He has a 25.8 percent usage percentage without Mitchell on the floor since the start of last season compared to a 20.8 percent usage percentage alongside Mitchell.
Rudy Gobert remains underpriced as he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season and is likely to play at least 32 minutes if this game is competitive. He isn’t the highest usage option, but he does offer rebounding, blocks and efficient scoring.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jordan Clarkson ($5,900), Mike Conley ($6,100), Rudy Gobert ($7,200), Joe Ingles ($4,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jordan Clarkson ($5,300), Joe Ingles ($4,800), Rudy Gobert ($8,000), Mike Conley ($6,700)
Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans (-8): 226.5
Washington Wizards
Washington remains short-handed with Deni Avdija, Davis Bertans, Troy Brown, Jr., Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura, Ish Smith, Moe Wagner and Russell Westbrook out. Raul Neto is questionable.
Bradley Beal is the obvious target here. He has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.2 percent usage percentage and 33.8 percent assist percentage in 34 minutes per game in the three games that he has played without Westbrook this season. In 212 minutes without Westbrook on the floor, Beal has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 41.4 percent usage percentage and 30.8 percent assist percentage.
Raul Neto is a viable value option if he is active as he would probably start in place of Westbrook. He was on a minutes restriction last night and played 22.5 minutes, so I think we would probably get around 24 or 25 minutes from him tonight, though he could play more if he isn’t limited. Cassius Winston would be his back-up and looks like a reasonable value at minimum salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($10,300), Jerome Robinson ($3,600)
New Orleans Pelicans
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram should be able to produce at a high rate tonight in one of the most favorable DFS matchups possible. Both players have averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season and they have the two highest usage percentage on the team at 29.2 percent for Ingram and 28.7 percent for Williamson.
Outside of those two, we have secondary tournament options in Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball. Adams projects as a strong value at $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, but the opportunity cost at the position makes him difficult to prioritize. Ball and Bledsoe have their average production hurt by the presence of the other three starters, but the additional possessions that the Wizards allow in addition to their poor rebounding and defending gives both players a better chance of reaching their ceiling than normal.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,000), Zion Williamson ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($7,500), Zion Williamson ($7,800)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-8.5): 229.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is without Karl-Anthony Towns, Juancho Hernangomez and Jarrett Culver. D’Angelo Russell is questionable. If he plays, he is a high-upside tournament option as he has averaged about 1.30 DraftKings points per minute without Towns this year and Golden State is one of the fastest teams in the league. If he sits, Ricky Rubio should get another start at a favorable price point.
Malik Beasley becomes more appealing if Russell sits as well as he will need to be the primary scorer for Minnesota in a game with one of the higher totals on the slate. Culver’s absence could lead to more minutes for Anthony Edwards if Russell is also out. Edwards has a usage percentage north of 30 percent without Russell or Towns on the floor this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($8,300- Questionable), Ricky Rubio ($5,400 if Russell is out), Anthony Edwards ($4,500 if Russell is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,500), Malik Beasley ($6,700), Ricky Rubio ($5,300 if Russell is out), Anthony Edwards ($4,500 if Russell is out)
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry gets to run it back against Minnesota tonight in a great matchup against one of the fastest teams and least efficient defenses in the league. Curry has averaged about 34 minutes per game this season and 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. He is still underpriced for his median projection and upside in this matchup.
Draymond Green has only averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he is cheap and in a great matchup. He isn’t a priority as far as one of the first players that I am trying to get into my lineup, but he will fill out a lineup nicely if I need a value at the forward spot.
Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are a little bit more expensive, but both have high ceilings in this spot. Oubre has struggled with his shooting this season which has driven his price down, but this is a nice spot for him to be able to knock down some shots.
Kevon Looney is the minimum salary and replaced James Wiseman in the starting lineup last game. He played 18.9 minutes and appeared on his way to about 22 minutes had the game remained competitive. The problem with Looney is that he takes up a center spot where it’s very difficult to justify rostering someone who doesn’t have the ability to score 40-plus fantasy points.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,300), Draymond Green ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600), Draymond Green ($4,900), Kelly Oubre ($5,800)
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