The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isnβt just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, youβll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 21
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (+3.0) 223.5
Philadelphia 76ers
The recently shorthanded 76ers should be getting whole today, with Ben Simmons returning from his sickness and Shake Milton listed as probable, returning from an ankle injury. Their returns take most of the value plays off of the board for the Sixers lineup. The team’s core of stars also does not stand out on the board much beyond a mix-and-match scenario on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The appropriate pricing on all of Simmons, Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid is keeping all three players below a 10% optimal lineup rate in Awesemo’s early projections, though each has an opportunity at a ceiling game while carrying a quality median projection. Of the trio, Embiid stands out as one of only two very high-end center options on FanDuel but falls off on DraftKings where there are more options.
Embiid just put up a gargantuan fantasy point total in the 76ers’ last game, which was played without Simmons. In 35 minutes he totaled 50 real life points on 17-26 shooting with 17 rebounds, five assists and six stocks in one of the best fantasy performances of the season. While Simmons was out, Embiid had that performance on his typical 34% usage, already a large share. For the season, Embiid has a 36.2% rebounding percentage and an 18.6% assist rate. Embiid is pricey on both sites and is unlikely to hit the massive total from the other day, but a more typical ceiling game is certainly in play.
Harris sees roughly 23% usage through the season, but his share is 19.4% when he is on the court with both Embiid and Simmons. Harris contributes a 12% assist rate and 11.1% rebounding in the situation. Harris is having a quality season, contributing 1.10 fantasy points per minute, but for the money he looks “fine,” though likely sub-optimal on both sites.
Simmons is a question mark primarily because of the recent absence and that he is not priced down for the situation. He looks as though the public may not be getting to him enough on Awesemo’s big board, though things could change toward lock. Ultimately, Simmons is a high-end player this season. He sees 19.7% usage through the season playing with his two big teammates. For the season he is a 26.1% rebounding rate and a 45% assist percentage contributor, which naturally bolsters his fantasy production even if he is not scoring the ball. Ultimately, Simmons is a mix-in guy, given the appropriate pricing on both sites.
The balance of the Sixers rotation falls in as mix-and-match plays from the value tier who do not truly shine among the other options on the boom/bust tool or in projections. Both Seth Curry and Danny Green are inexpensive on FanDuel, while Curry is overpriced on DraftKings, both are carrying minutes projections in the 28- to 30-minute range for the night. They both produce at right around that value, however, in normal situations, putting up 0.71 and 0.69 fantasy points per minute respectively, limiting their upside when there is not a role or situation change.
No one else on the Sixers roster is projected for more than 20 minutes of time or 15 fantasy points.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None / Joel Embiid — $10,900
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid — $11,000
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Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have several players who should contribute to fantasy scoring tonight, as usual the trick is to figure out exactly where the production will come from in a somewhat deep rotation. At the top end, we have the advantage of knowing that point guard Kyle Lowry is doubtful to play, as he nurses a hand injury. The absence vaults his high end teammates into relevance, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are not quite appropriately priced for the situation.
Naturally, the sites are treating the situation differently. On DraftKings VanVleet is the more expensive of the pair, slotting into the point guard and shooting guard spot at $8,200 and providing significant upside for the position. The guard puts up 1.10 fantasy points per minute. Playing alongside Siakam and without Lowry, VanVleet sees 26.9% usage and puts up a 28.8% assist rate, the usage climbs while the assists come down slightly as he takes on more of the scoring load. He will be popular on both sites but should be owned around or above the field.
Siakam ranks similarly to his teammate, but will be less popular on FanDuel, while coming in at a higher price. On DraftKings he is the less expensive and more popular of the duo. He looks like good chalk on both sites, given the situation. Siakam averages 1.12 fantasy points per minute for the season, though the total dips slightly to 1.10 when playing without Lowry. For the season, Siakam averages 20.4 real life points in 35.9 minutes per game, putting up a high quality 24.6% rebounding rate and a 24.5% assist rate. He makes for an appealing under-owned option where we pay up to him on FanDuel and is a quality mix-ins play where he offers savings but has popularity on DraftKings.
Of the Raptors role players, Chris Boucher stands out on the board on both sites. The public is not getting to the Raptors backup big man in nearly enough of their lineups for the opportunity he sees. He is underpriced at $6,500 on FanDuel if he sees the full 28 minutes for which Awesemo has him projected; Boucher puts up 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. On DraftKings he looks even better slotting in at the center spot for $5,900. He appears in the optimal lineup in a significant number of simulations as an inexpensive 1.23 DraftKings points per minute contributor for the sesaon, 1.30 without Lowry in the game. Boucher should be considered for mid-range value on both sites.
Norman Powell and DeAndre’ Bembry are both mix-and-match options of varying quality from site to site. The most relevant place for either player is Bembry’s situation on DraftKings, where he can be rostered for just $3,500 at the small forward spot. Bembry is slated for 30 minutes of action tonight in projections, putting him on the board at that price. The public will be on him as a value play, however, and he is not a lock to receive the full share of minutes with other wing players waiting to replace him.
Powell is by far the higher quality player of the two, but he is appropriately priced on both sites, coming in at $6,500 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings. He produces 0.89 fantasy points per minute and should be in for a full 35-minute night or more. Without Lowry this season, Powell has produced 0.99 fantasy points per minute, pouring a little gasoline on the production fire. He looks like a quality play, but not one that will gain us much edge on the field as he appears in a similar ratio of the public’s lineups and optimal simulated lineups.
The rest of the Raptors can be left to the side, barring any situational changes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam — $7,900, Chris Boucher — $5,900, Fred VanVleet — $8,200, DeAndre’ Bembry — $3,500
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet — $8,000, Chris Boucher — $6,500, Pascal Siakam — $8,900
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic (-2) 210.5
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are in Orlando for a contest between two teams who have seen significant changes to their makeup over the last few weeks. On the Pistons side of things, following the trade of Derrick Rose and the general dismissal of all things Blake Griffin, we now add an injury to point guard Delon Wright, who was already filling in for rookie Killian Hayes, who was hurt earlier in the season. The Pistons will be leaning heavily on a few of their remaining regulars and could be a source of sneaky value on the board for NBA DFS purposes.
The leader on both sites is Jerami Grant, who has been the Pistons’ top producer all season long. Grant leads the team in usage at 26.1% for the season, 27.2% since Rose was dismissed eight games ago. and 28.6% since Griffin’s departure three games ago. In that sample, Grant added an 11.5% assist share and 6.5% rebounding rate, averaging 24.7 real life points but just 2.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists in his 38.4 minutes per game. With the public getting to him in appropriate amounts, Grant is still more than a filler option at the price, but he does not leap off the board and into our lineups either.
Point guard Dennis Smith Jr. has reappeared with the Pistons, following his banishment from the Knicks rotation and eventual inclusion in the Rose trade. Smith is projected for 29.1 minutes in Awesemo’s numbers tonight and could see the lion’s share of the work at point guard picking up for Wright. On DraftKings Smith costs just $4,000 and is getting traction as a value play, though the public ownership appears to be outstripping the pace at which the 0.82 DraftKings points per minute producer — in a small sample — appears in the optimal lineup in simulations. Smith seems somewhat easy to avoid, despite the enticing value price.
Josh Jackson is the player that seems to have more appeal in a potential for more primary ball-handling duties. Jackson is projected for 26.7 minutes in Awesemo’s latest update, which could him on the board for NBA DFS purposes. In 112 minutes without Rose, Wright, Hayes or Griffin on the floor with him this season, Jackson has seen a monster 30.9% usage rate, while putting up fantasy points at a 1.19 per minute clip. If Jackson produces at nearly that pace for us tonight he will be a very strong play as a $5,100 shooting guard on FanDuel, and he retains value through a lack of ownership relative to his optimal lineup rate on DraftKings.
Center Mason Plumlee has contributed to some NBA DFS success in the right spots this season. He averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute for the year and has seen 18.2% usage since the departure of his veteran former teammates. Plumlee has put up 12.7 real life points along with a 45.8% rebounding share and 33.9% assist percentage in the team’s three games since Griffin’s departure, suggesting the potential for upside at his current salaries.
Saddiq Bey has seen an increased role in recent games as well, with 34.1 minutes per game over the team’s last three since the most recent roster changes. Bey has kicked in 14.0 real life points on just 15.7% usage, adding a 16.3% rebounding percentage and 18.2% assist rate. He is a reasonable option, though we do not gain much on the field by rostering him on either site tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant — $7,600, Josh Jackson — $5,800, (Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable chalk as a value at $4,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant — $7,600, Josh Jackson — $5,100, Mason Plumlee — $6,800
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been the NBA’s walking wounded for several weeks now, to the benefit of the production of several key players. Not much about the team’s recent situation has changed heading into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, and their primary pieces are going to be a key inflection point for tonight’s contests once again.
Nikola Vucevic has provided the Magic with stability in the starting lineup and a ton of production in the absence of his frontcourt running mate Aaron Gordon. Vucevic has averaged 1.38 fantasy points per minute for the season and a whopping 1.44 in games without Gordon, Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, all of whom are out once again. Vucevic is one of the top two options on the board on FanDuel once again, and he is in play on DraftKings, though there are a number of options and potential combinations with positional flexibility.
Filing in for the absent guards on that list, Michael Carter-Williams is beginning to percolate as an NBA DFS option when he is cast at the wrong price. This is absolutely the case on FanDuel tonight, for some reason the blue site has the starting point guard priced at juts $4,500, he is a $5,500 option at both shooting guard and the point guard spot on DraftKings, where he looks good but not nearly great. Carter-Williams produces 0.77 fantasy points per minute so far this season, down dramatically from his 0.99 rate just last year. Overall, he is a quality option in this situation, where his rate for the year climbs to a steadier 0.85 per minute and he has a decent 25.8% assist share. Carter-Williams is a high-end value play on FanDuel and more of a mix-and-match option on DraftKings.
Shooting guard Evan Fournier is not someone you want to Google, so take our advice here. The $6,300 shooting guard is more in play on DraftKings than he is as a $6,800 small forward on FanDuel. The positional requirements on the latter site have Fournier miscast against other options at the position and he appears sub-optimal despite 1.02 fantasy points per minute for the season, though he will be slightly undervalued by the public. Fournier’s positional utility adds a bit of quality on DraftKings, though the public is wise to it and he appears to be appropriately owned. Rostering him around the field seems like a good approach.
Terrence Ross has been priced up following his outlier shooting performance the other night against the Knicks and generally strong production through the Magic’s recent stretch of injuries. For the season he has produced 0.88 fantasy points per minute, on par with his rate from last year. Ross has seen a massive 29.1% usage share and sees his fantasy production jump to 1.0 points per minute over 163 minutes in this situation, though Fournier has only contributed to a small portion of that sample. At appropriate and possibly high prices, Ross can rotate through some shares of lineups, but he is not a focus play.
The same can be said for forwards James Ennis and Khem Birch. Neither looks to be a strong contributor to tonight’s slate, though Birch picks up some utility with his $3,500 salary and positioning at both power forward and center on DraftKings. For the season, he has posted 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, a not insignificant rate for someone carrying a 22 minute projection at the price.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic — $10,300, Michael Carter Williams — $5,500, Evan Fournier — $6,300, Khem Birch — $3,500
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Michael Carter-Williams — $4,500, Nikola Vucevic — $9,700
Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5) 219.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Another team that has been rotating players through on a seemingly endless basis, the Thunder come in as slight favorites against the lowly Cavaliers in a game between the dregs of the league. With a tight spread and not the largest total on the board, as well as Cleveland’s relatively slow pace of play, there might not be a ton to get to in this contest.
On the Oklahoma City side, the Thunder will be at relative health for a change, though still lacking backup point guard George Hill. The return of their best player, combo guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a boost to the team in real life, but a negative impact to the NBA DFS prospects of almost the entire roster. In fact, Gilgeous-Alexander himself is the only play that looks like a source of truly reliable quality on this team tonight. He has posted 1.18 fantasy points per minute while on the court this season and is appropriately priced for his projected run on both sites. He adds point guard eligibility on DraftKings and is only slightly over-owned for his potential to be an optimal play, which hovers in the mid-range. On FanDuel the ownership pool increases at a faster pace than his optimal lineup rate does, for the money we may be able to find a more valuable shooting guard play tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander is a fine real life player who averages 22.3 real life points on 27.2% usage for the season, adding a quality 17.9% rebounding share and a very healthy 41.6% assist rate.
Other roster considerations from the Thunder are restricted to the level of mix-in plays who don’t carry extreme salary or ownership advantages. There is nothing wrong with rostering Al Horford, who has been tremendous through the injuries, handling a large share of the ball handling duties and seeing a strong assist rate. He has 1.13 fantasy points per minute overall for the season and costs just $6,300 on FanDuel and $6,400 on DraftKings. He is simply well-priced for the upside.
The same can be said for other recently popular options including Darius Bazley, Theo Maledon, Luguentz Dort and Hamidou Diallo. All of them appear to be nothing more than small share options across a large field of lineups tonight.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — $8,100
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — $7,800
Cleveland Cavaliers
The slow-paced Cavaliers will have to run more than they typically do in keeping up with a Thunder team that does at least pace at a top-10 clip. The Cavaliers have famously parted ways with big man Andre Drummond, banishing him to the to-be-traded-eventually list. In his place, NBA DFS owners have the pleasure of rostering JaVale McGee and Jarrett Allen, the latter of who is the safer bet given the somewhat locked-in minutes.
McGee slots in as an extreme value play, costing just $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. He is projected for just 16.4 minutes in Awesemo’s numbers, but that could be enough for an extreme producer who has posted 1.27 fantasy points per minute this year, 1.32 in all situations without Drummond. McGee appears in the optimal lineup with some frequency in early simulations, pay attention to him in lineup building tonight.
The much better player, Jarrett Allen, slots in at the center position on both sites, costing $7,100 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel. He produces 1.16 fantasy points per minute for the season and has a solid 1.25 rate with the Cavaliers while not playing with Drummond. Allen should be in an all-he-can-eat situation and could be undervalued in early returns. With just a 19.2% rebounding share in that situation, Allen can do a little more on the glass and immediately boost his fantasy production.
Collin Sexton is slated for a significant portion of the backcourt minutes for the Cavaliers once again, coming up with a 37.2 minute total in Awesemo’s numbers. He should play both alongside and staggered in the rotation with Darius Garland, who also has a large minutes projection and quality marks on Awesemo’s Big Board. Sexton is the more expensive of the duo, though Garland appears in the optimal lineup more frequently in simulations on both sites. For the year, Garland averages 0.84 fantasy points per minute, 0.89 in recent situations without Drummond or Larry Nance Jr. on the floor. Sexton comes in with a 0.91 clip in that situation and 0.93 for the season, losing a primary partner for finishing assists. Both players look like quality NBA DFS picks for tonight’s slate, bringing both reasonable chances of being in the optimal lineup and leverage scores that are on pace with those marks.
Cleveland also contributes value to the slate in the form of Cedi Osman, who fits in as a $5,400 small forward on FanDuel and a $5,500 player who adds power forward eligibility to that on DraftKings. Osman is another player who benefits from the new situation, jumping from 0.81 fantasy points per minute for the year up to 0.88. He is not priced as an extreme value play, but he will not be owned that way either, putting him in play as a mid-range swappable piece on the slate.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Darius Garland — $5,600, Jarrett Allen — $7,100, JaVale McGee — $3,800
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Darius Garland — $5,900, JaVale McGee — $3,600, Collin Sexton — $6,900, Cedi Osman — $5,400
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks (-3) 216.5
The underdog Timberwolves come into New York to take on the scrappy, slow-paced, defensively minded Knicks in a game that narrative fans should be drooling over given the connections between coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose and the Timberwolves. Nonsense aside, the game seems like a mediocre spot for fantasy production, as the second-lowest total on the board. Several players on both sides are potentially relevant, but there are limited standout spots.
On the Minnesota side, center Karl-Anthony Towns is back in action after his bout with COVID-19, and he has been playing well, averaging 32.6 minutes immediately upon his return. Towns is one of the league’s best options at the center position and a fixture in the Minnesota offense, as evidenced by his 24.6% usage share over the last six games since coming back. Towns has contributed a 33.7% rebounding rate and 15.5% assist share in that stretch, while scoring 21.2 real life points per game. Unfortunately, we gain no ground in rostering Towns on either slate, he seems appropriately priced for the matchup and does not demonstrate significant upside in simulations. He is nothing more than a mix-in.
Malik Beasley has been another focal point for the Timberwolves, particularly while Towns and DeAngelo Russell have been absent. For the season, the small forward has 0.97 fantasy points per minute over all situations. With Towns on the floor but Russell still out, Beasley drops to 0.87 fantasy points per minute, losing some of his scoring role and seeing usage drop to a 24.7 rate from the 26.6% rate with both out. Beasley is not overly expensive at $6,500 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings, and he carries a reasonably good optimal lineup rate from Awesemo on the blue site, where he is a better option. He is simply a mix-in for DraftKings play tonight.
Forward Jarred Vanderbilt appears to be the target on the DraftKings slate, given his $3,800 salary, a value outlier for the potential production. Vanderbilt has seen increased opportunity and has produced 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he slots in at the power forward or center spot, increasing his versatility on the site. He has created fantasy points without scoring, averaging 3.5 stocks per game since Towns’ return to the lineup, while grabbing 5.2 rebounds. He is in play at the price on one site but is just a mix-in on FanDuel.
Rookie Anthony Edwards may have thrown down the best dunk of the season to date the other night, but he is largely out of play for this slate, given very appropriate pricing. He appears to be a more advisable play on DraftKings where the relative salary is significantly lower, thrusting him into more of the simulated optimal lineups. Edwards is averaging 0.88 DraftKings points per minute on 24.3% usage for the year, a significant share for a rookie. The top pick has responded, contributing a quality 17% rebounding rate, a 14.2% assist share and a 14.3 real life points scoring average. Still, he doesn’t pop for NBA DFS purposes on this one.
The balance of the Timberwolves rotation — including Ricky Rubio, Jordan McLaughlin and forward Jaden McDaniels — are largely moving parts in tonight’s slate. None of the trio is bereft of value, with Rubio looking the sharpest on FanDuel and McDaniels standing out more for his $3,700 salary on DraftKings. It would be advisable to roster any of the trio at or below the field however, there does not appear to be significant upside. McLaughlin leads the group with 0.97 fantasy points per minute and would be instantly more interesting with more than a 19.9 minute projection.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jarred Vanderbilt — $3,800, Malik Beasley — $6,700
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Malik Beasley — $6,500
New York Knicks
Taking the unprintable adjective that fellow Knicks fans and I usually use to describe the team leaves us with “meh” to describe this squad. They are an enjoyable team to watch in real life at times, given the defensive tenacity and wildly unreasonable expectations for young players held by the fanbase, but they have not offered a broad range of NBA DFS options in recent slates. Playing at the league’s slowest pace has that impact on a squad.
The usual story will be read again tonight in discussing this team, Julius Randle is the primary play on both sites. Randle contributes a healthy fantasy point projection to any slate he joins, given the team’s propensity for letting him play more than 37 minutes and the fact that he is essentially the number one and two options on offense for this team. Randle handles the primary scoring duties and does a significant amount of distribution, posting a 33.5% assist share on the season in all situations. The Knicks will be without center Mitchell Robinson for the foreseeable future, and there is talk that they are considering playing Randle as a small-ball center and starting rookie Obi Toppin alongside him. This would likely create a boost in Randle’s rebounding rate as well, as he will not be playing alongside more capable NBA rebounders like Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson. At just $8,800 on FanDuel, Randle still has utility and value at the power forward, for $9,400 on DraftKings, he loses some luster but gains some leverage and positional flexibility at the center spot.
The rest of the Knicks can be swapped in and out of lineups with varying confidence. R.J. Barrett needs more than 35 minutes to produce reliably for NBA DFS, he has seen a steady decline in time and his production has dropped. Awesemo has him projected for his recent average of around 29 minutes, which dramatically reduces his upside despite a seemingly cheap $5,500 salary. Barrett has the rebounding and ball handling ability to grab peripheral points, but he is a wildly inefficient player who fails without significant run.
Point guard Elfrid Payton offers the suggestion of upside for just $4,900 at the point for the Knicks, but he slots in alongside newly acquired Derrick Rose and rookie standout Immanuel Quickley in a somewhat unpredictable rotation. In recent games, the Knicks have run Rose and Quickley together in the second unit, with the rookie manning the shooting guard role, and Payton soak up most of the starting point guard minutes. This seems likely to remain the case for the moment, regardless of what the Knicks do with the rest of the rotation. Payton will be undervalued on both sites, though his probability for success is relatively low and his range of outcomes is large, he is a GPP play on both sites.
Alec Burks has seen some utility through the season and averages 0.86 fantasy points per minute but sees an unreliable 24-minute projection tonight that does not have him as a relevant option. Worse yet, the field will be on him on both sites, pushing him mostly off the board as a value or ownership play.
Nerlens Noel should maintain a role in the frontcourt, though it remains to be seen exactly how that will shake out if the Knicks decide to change things up. Given the matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns, it seems unlikely that the Knicks would start small here, but one never knows. Noel would lose out significantly if his 28 minute projection is reduced, though he looks like a quality value option at his reasonable salary if it remains firm. Noel has 0.99 fantasy points per minute in solid backup minutes for the Knicks this season, contributing a 29.9% rebounding rate, 9.1% assist rate and block rate while on the floor.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle — $9,400
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle — $8,800, Nerlens Noel — $5,300
Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) 232.5
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets went down to Georgia for a basketball game and a devil of a total broke out. One of three games at the backend of the slate that are all totaled above the 130 point mark, there are numerous options in play on both sides of what have been two injury raddled rotations.
The favored Nuggets recent injury list has been whittled down slightly, tonight it only includes JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and P.J. Dozier. Denver should have Will Barton in the starting unit where he saw 34.2 minutes in his return to action in the team’s last game. Barton has contributed just 0.76 fantasy points per minute through the first half of the season this year, though he was at 0.95 just last year, suggesting obvious upside potential. He is relatively inexpensive for the role and the player, coming in at just $5,200 on both sites. Barton has significant utility for NBA DFS tonight, he will not be over-exposed to public ownership and he appears at a solid pace in optimal lineup in simulations for both sites.
The primary players everyone wants to roster from this team are, of course, Nikola Jokic at the top end and Michael Porter Jr. as a value piece. Jokic tops the board at the center position on both sites when sorting by most metrics in Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, he is a spectacular play on most slates for which he laces up his sneakers. The big man has 1.59 fantasy points per minute this season, doing everything right in posting a 35.2% rebounding percentage and a 41.6% assist rate to go with his 29% usage for the year and 27 real life points per game scoring average. Jokic is rock solid and, while he is by no means a lock given the weighty price tag, he is going to be in many of my entries tonight.
Porter carries significant value on both sites, he has seen major minutes in the starting lineup in recent games for Denver and nothing should change about the role tonight. For the year, Porter has 1.03 fantasy points per minute, with 26.7% usage for the season. He contributes scoring and rebounding, putting up a 25.6% rebounding rate for the season, though that mark drops significantly in the situation. Playing alongside Jokic, Porter drops to just a 7.6% rebounding rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute, though it is only across an insignificant 46-minute sample.
Backup point guard Facundo Campazzo has seen more relevance than veteran teammate Monte Morris in recent games. Awesemo has him projected for more minutes in the duo tonight and he is clinging to the bottom of relevance for this team. Campazzo’s utility will be dictated entirely by the number of minutes he sees. At just $4,200 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings — where he adds shooting guard eligibility and looks stronger — Campazzo won’t need a lot more than his projected 28 minutes to get the job done, but he will have to outpace his 0.80 fantasy points per minute like we saw from him in his recent start.
Jamal Murray is knocked down the boom/bust board by quite a bit, given his $8,300 salary on FanDuel and meaty $8,600 asking price on DraftKings. He is not bereft of potential, of course, Murray produces 0.98 fantasy points per minute and is more than capable of a big game in this spot. We just need a very big game at the salary and he simply does not project for it. Murray looks better on FanDuel, with a slightly higher boom score, but appears sub-optimal on both sites. He can safely be considered a mix-in play for GPPs.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic — $10,800, Michael Porter — $5,900, Will Barton — $5,200, Facundo Campazzo — $4,100
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic — $10,600, Michael Porter — $5,700, Will Barton — $5,200, Facundo Campazzo — $4,200
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks bring fewer options to the table than their opponents in terms of viable NBA DFS picks. Trae Young is clawing his way back toward last season’s level of production, currently at 1.28 fantasy points per minute on the season, down from 1.35 last year. Young has averaged 26.5 real life points in 35.5 minutes per game, getting 28.9% usage over the team’s most recent six game stretch. He adds a monster 54.6% assist share over that time, an uptick from his already absurd 52% rate for the season. Young looks like a strong play on FanDuel, where his $9,200 is too low for his talent and upside. The $9,700 price on DraftKings lands in a more appropriate range, though at just 7.4% projected public popularity, it makes sense to happily roster Young well beyond the field on the potential.
John Collins is the team’s number two option and apparently has a problem with Young leading the way. Despite the recent behind the scenes troubles, Collins has been unable to steal the spotlight in Atlanta and is down to just 1.01 fantasy points per minute, far off his 1.24 clip from last season. Collins costs $6,5oo on DraftKings where he can be rostered as a center or a power forward, which gives him some appeal, given the decent 25.9% rebounding rate, despite the presence of Clint Capela in the lineup.
Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter both appear as more viable options where they are relatively cheaper on DraftKings and are nothing more than mix-and-match options on FanDuel. We can add Cam Reddish to the no-go list for both sites in anything more than a handful of lineup shares. All three players should see minutes on the wing for the Hawks, providing competent run and reasonable scoring-based upside, but they are not priced as significant values, more for who they are. Of the trio, Huerter has the most utility, but will be the most popular, while Gallinari has the least predictable minutes and just a 25.2 minute projection but comes in with less relevant popularity.
Center Clint Capela has 1.38 fantasy points per minute for the season but has been in and out of the lineup and is still priced for upside, at $8,000 on both sites. He mixes through lineups in a miniscule share of optimizer runs for either site tonight and simply seems like an afterthought at the position. I do not mind throwing a few lottery tickets into the mix, but we do not see much upside for the salary.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young — $9,700, John Collins — $6,500, Kevin Huerter — $5,100
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young — $9,200, John Collins — $6,800
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5) 235.5
Brooklyn Nets
The top-heavy Nets circus comes to Los Angeles for a matchup with the two-thirds as star-laden Clippers. Sorting by most metrics on Awesemo’s board, there appear to be two very relevant plays in this contest, and they both come from the Nets. To no one’s surprise, those are James Harden and Kyrie Irving. The superstar duo will be playing without Kevin Durant once again, kicking their potential for production into overdrive. Without Durant, Harden averages 1.38 fantasy points per minute, Irving puts up 1.22, though Irving sees more of the usage at a 32.4% rate in the situation while Harden consumes just 26.6% of the team’s shots, which still totals to well over half of the team’s shot attempts.
Both of the stars are on the board for NBA DFS. On DraftKings the $10,600 price tag isn’t slowing down Harden any more than the $10,800 price on him does on FanDuel, he looks like a leading option on both sites once again. Harden is rosterable as a point guard on DraftKings and a shooting guard on FanDuel, where he picks up more relative value given the position. Kyrie Irving is underpriced for the situation at $8,800 on FanDuel and $8,700 on DraftKings. This vaults him into a significant share of optimal lineup appearances in simulations. Both stars are worth paying for tonight, and they can be played alongside one another if they come up that way, though it may not be the most optimal construction.
The role players on this team are largely off the board. Of the available selections, Joe Harris is a scoring dependent small forward at an almost appropriate price on FanDuel, grabbing shares tonight would be squeezing the last juice from the orange. He has virtually no utility at $5,900 on DraftKings. Bruce Brown, offers the reverse. Brown lands better in our projections at just $4,100 on DraftKings between the shooting guard and small forward spot. Of the pair, Brown has produced 0.81 points per minute in backup minutes, while Harris plays more, producing 0.76 fantasy points per minute alongside the team’s stars.
Center DeAndre Jordan and role players like Jeff Green and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot are not significant plays tonight.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden — $10,600, Kyrie Irving — $8,700, Bruce Brown — $4,100
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden — $10,800, Kyrie Irving — $8,800, Joe Harris — $5,300
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers could be fully healthy for a change, with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the floor for this one, matching them up well with the two stars the Nets will dress. The Clippers offer more depth for real life basketball, but not nearly as much for NBA DFS purposes.
Looking up and down the board, there are simply no standout options, including George and Leonard. The two stars who each have two first names are simply priced for their expected production, and we do not see leverage in getting to them from an ownership perspective. They are projected for reasonable median output in terms of fantasy points, Leonard averages a strong 1.34 fantasy points per minute for the season, while George is a 1.22 contributor, but with just 27 minute projections for both, given the returns from recent injuries, they do not crack into nearly as many of the optimal lineups returned in simulations. For the season, Leonard averages 26.8 real life points in 34.6 minutes and contributes an 18.6% rebounding rate and a 27.5% assist rate. If we could lock him in for 34 minutes this would be a different play. George similarly has a 20.9% rebounding rate and a 31% assist rate, to go with his 23.9 real life points per game, but again we do not expect him to crack his 33.6 minute average.
Serge Ibaka has produced at 1.06 fantasy points per minute but his minutes are a challenge — just like the current situation for his star teammates, only all the time. Ibaka comes up in the optimal lineup in just a slim share of simulations on either site, he produces a 31.4% rebounding rate and a 13.6% assist rate on the season, but sees just 24.1 minutes per game, averaging 11.7 real life points per game.
Beyond the forward and the pair of stars, the options get even worse. Lou Williams, Nicolas Batum, Ivica Zubac and Marcus Morris are all simple mix-in plays in only very limited shares on either site.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: none
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: none
Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks (-10) 238.5
Sacramento Kings
The last game of the night brings the slate’s highest total, but also the largest point spread, putting the blowout narrative in play. While it comes up frequently, this is simply not something we can realistically worry about or adjust projections for, unless we get specific news about a key player sitting the fourth quarter regardless of situation. The blowout will come largely at the hands of the team’s best players in most circumstances and does not always leave them on the bench at the end of the game or unproductive in your fantasy basketball lineups.
This should be the case for the Bucks tonight, as the Kings throw futility up against the wall in trying to defeat one of the best teams in the league. Sacramento has their work cut out for them and they bring some fantasy utility to the table. Point guard De’Aaron Fox remains underpriced on both sites, given his lackluster performance. The point guard has dropped from 1.21 to 1.18 fantasy points per minute this season, but he costs just $7,800 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings. This is a more expensive player and should be rostered as such. Fox sees 29.3% usage leading the Kings, putting up a healthy 41.9% assist rate to go with his 22.7 real life points per game in 33.3 minutes. He has the clear role and upside to produce a ceiling game and should be rostered on both sites.
Tyrese Haliburton is up to a 34-minute projection tonight, getting starters run, which he has earned through putting up 0.96 fantasy points per minute this season. Haliburton has averaged 29.5 minutes per game for the year, putting up 12.4 real life points and a healthy 32.9% assist rate, though his rebounding leaves something to be desired so far at just 13.4%. Over the team’s most recent six games, Haliburton has averaged 14.2 real life points in 30.7 minutes on 17.9% usage, but his peripheral rates drop seeing more time with the starters. He is a strong option on both sites, more so on FanDuel where he costs just $5,400. At a higher price on DraftKings, he is simply a less optimal play.
When he manages to take the court, Marvin Bagley can produce fantasy upside. He has 1.01 points per minute this season, a downturn from his 1.06 rate last year, but not in a major way. Bagley lands as a playable option at the power forward spot on FanDuel for just $5,400, less so as a power forward or center on DraftKings with a higher salary. He is an unappealing play who will land in lineups via process, but I would be happy to duck under the field when he is over-owned.
Nemanja Bjelica offers some slight utility as a leverage play, he appears in some shares of the optimal lineup in simulations though he does not have explosive upside. That upside does come from center Hassan Whiteside, who is projected for 23 minutes and a 28.6% boom score probability in Awesemo’s metrics but does not pop in FanDuel optimal lineups with just one center spot. On DraftKings Whiteside is far more interesting, and he comes up in the optimal lineup with regularity. He costs just $4,900 on the site and should be rostered for big upside potential at his 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox — $7,700, Hassan Whiteside — $4,900
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox — $7,800, Tyrese Haliburton — $5,400, Marvin Bagley — $5,400, Nemanja Bjelica — $5,100
Milwaukee Bucks
On the Bucks side of the court, the story is fairly familiar for anyone who has played this team recently. Point guard Jrue Holiday is expected to be on the shelf once again, leaving Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton as the primary options for real life and fantasy basketball.
Giannis needs no introduction; he averages 1.63 fantasy points per minute and is typically the highest priced player on his slates. The $11,300 price tag on FanDuel is not slowing him down, nor is the $11,000 on DraftKings where he picks up center eligibility. Giannis dominates the league, averaging 28 real life points in his 33.8 minutes at 32.4% usage. He carries a 34.6% rebounding share and a 32% assist percentage on this team, contributing NBA DFS scoring in numerous ways. Giannis is an easy click if you have the money to spend, and the boom/bust metrics all call for him to be clicked on both sites.
Khris Middleton is a quality player who has been frustrating NBA DFS owners recently, hopefully that keeps the public away from him. For the year, Middleton has a 17.6% rebounding rate and a 31.9% assist rate that should help buoy his fantasy production in theory. His rates are down slightly year over year, coming in at just 1.10 fantasy points per minute this year, down from 1.19 last season. He costs only $7,200 on FanDuel where he looks like a spectacular play that people are remiss to roster. On DraftKings he costs more, coming in all the way up at $7,800, a major uptick given the relative salary caps. He still lands in a fair share of simulated optimal lineups and has a strong upside scoring potential, suggesting we can roster him on both sites, regardless of price or popularity.
The balance of the team exists in a bubble of mediocrity surrounding the two standouts. Bobby Portis is fine and can contribute in a hurry when he gets run. He has 1.14 fantasy points per minute but juts a 22.3 minute projection. Brook Lopez is down to 0.83 fantasy points per minute and has been extremely quiet to start the year. Donte DiVincenzo stands out as the third best play on the board on DraftKings for the Bucks, which says a lot about these player’s prospects for relevance. DiVincenzo averages 0.85 fantsay points per minute and should see close to 30 minutes running with the starters. He is OK as a mix-in, averaging 9.8 real life points on just 16.4% usage. These are mix-and-match plays on both sites, not much more.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo — $11,000, Khris Middleton — $7,800
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo — $11,300, Khris Middleton — $7,200
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