NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Anthony Edwards Liftoff

Wednesday delivers a 12-game slate for DFS players, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that can help players win GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Jan. 4.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 4

High-End Tier

With Jrue Holiday (conditioning) and Khris Middleton (knee) out tonight, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a popular spend but is extremely difficult to avoid. With these two starters essentially unavailable for the last three – Holiday played last night but didn’t start and only saw 18 minutes – Antetokounmpo has recorded an absurd 82 DraftKings points per game. With Holiday and Middleton off the court this season, Antetokounmpo has destroyed his opponents for 1.8 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to his usage rising 1.4 percentage points to 41.8% and his assist rate skyrocketing 12.3 percentage points to 43.8%. Going against a Raptors defense that ranks 25th in rating over their last 10 games, Antetokounmpo has a real chance to surpass 80 DraftKings points for the fourth consecutive start and is unpriced for his insane ceiling, which is the highest on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool.

If rostering a chalky Antetokounmpo, it will be important to find some lower-owned studs to pair with him, and Domantas Sabonis is one of the best choices, with Stokastic projecting him for low ownership tonight. Notably, he is expected to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings. Sabonis is collecting 1.4 DraftKings points per minute this season and has topped 50 DraftKings points in eight of his past 10 starts. Tonight, the Kings and Hawks will square off in Sacramento and this clash of two offenses that both rank inside the top 10 in pace should be an absolute shootout. This game’s total is up to 245.5 points, which is not only the highest on the slate by nearly 10 points, but also the largest total the NBA has seen this season. Sabonis is generating 53 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 240 points this season (six games) and Clint Capela (calf) remains sidelined for Atlanta, which is great news for Sabonis. The Hawks have given up the second-most points in the paint with Capela out for the last four games, which is where 80% of Sabonis’ attempts have come this season. In this season-high total, Sabonis is a legitimate threat for a triple-double.

Priced under $9,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, De’Aaron Fox is also a terrific target in this massive total. He is leading the Kings with a 29% usage rate and is producing 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season. Fox and Sabonis positively correlate this season – the two have collectively eclipsed 50 DraftKings points twice in the Kings’ last four games – and rostering them together is a sharp strategy that will naturally make lineups contrarian.

Especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting him to be less than 5% owned, Anthony Edwards is an incredible GPP target tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains sidelined, and Edwards has been outstanding without him, especially on his home floor. With Towns out since Nov. 30, Edwards is averaging 54 DraftKings points per game at home (eight games), including two explosions over 65 DraftKings points. With a team-high 29.1% usage rate, he provides 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Towns off the floor this season and tonight, the Timberwolves will be hosting the Trail Blazers, who rank 19th in defensive efficiency. This tilt’s total ranks fourth on the slate (233.5 points) and Edwards should effortlessly beat his salaries with at least 50 fantasy points in this spot.

Value Tier

With R.J. Barrett (finger) out and the Knicks facing a Spurs defense that ranks dead last in efficiency, Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley are projecting to be two of the 10 most owned players on the slate. While Brunson is too cheap for this situation, Quickley is overpriced and an easy fade. Returning from a three-game absence Monday, Brunson looked great in his first start of the season without Barrett, finishing with 38 DraftKings points across 39 minutes in a tough matchup against the Suns. With Barrett off the court, Brunson has been the main beneficiary for New York; his usage and assist rates increase 4.9 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

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As for Quickley, he unsurprisingly came back down to earth with Brunson returning Monday, recording only 26.8 DraftKings points, after averaging 51 DraftKings points per game in the three previous games with both Brunson and Barrett unavailable. Quickley’s usage barely rises with just Barrett off the court this season, and while he is going to see high minutes as a starter again tonight, his upside is limited with Brunson back in the mix and a poor target with the heavy ownership he is expected to see.

While priced more appropriately on FanDuel, Steven Adams is a tough fade at only $5,400 on DraftKings, despite Stokastic projecting him to be the most owned player on the slate. Brandon Clarke (ankle), who is Adams’ direct backup, will miss his second straight game tonight, locking Adams into a 30+ minute role. With Clarke inactive Sunday, Adams logged 34 minutes – which is the most playing time he has seen in 22 games – and finished with a double-double worth 49.75 DraftKings against the Kings. Adams gets another beautiful matchup tonight, going against the Hornets. On top of ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, Charlotte is yielding the second-most rebounds in the league, which is perfect for Adams, who leads the Grizzlies with a huge 21.9% rebound percentage this season and has grabbed at least 17 boards in three straight starts. In Stokastic’s projections, Adams is the No.1 value on the slate for DraftKings.

With Stokastic projecting him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Willy Hernangomez is a good punt play. Larry Nance Jr. (neck) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) are out, so Hernangomez should see around 15 minutes against the Rockets, maybe more if Jonas Valanciunas gets in foul trouble. In the 108 minutes Hernangomez has played with Nance and Williamson off the floor this season, he has led the Pelicans with a 30.2% usage rate and an elite 1.4 DraftKings points per minute. Hernangomez posted a season-best 33.25 DraftKings points with both Nance and Williamson inactive on Dec. 22 and brings similar upside tonight against a soft Houston defense that ranks 27th in efficiency.

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Situations to Monitor

Joel Embiid (questionable, foot) was a late add to injury report today, but this should be taken with a grain of salt. Just this Monday, he was downgraded to questionable, but ended up playing and delivering 67.75 DraftKings points against the Pelicans. Given the uncertainty around his availability, Embiid was only rostered by 2.4% of the field in DraftKings main GPP of the night on Monday. In the same exact situation tonight, he should come with little ownership if ruled active and will be outstanding contrarian spend against the Pacers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. The 76ers will be at home and carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (119.75 points) and when Embiid has competed on his home floor behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, he has topped 60 DraftKings points in four-of-seven starts.

Now, If Embiid sits, James Harden will become one of the most expensive targets, regardless of his likely high ownership. With Embiid off the floor this season, Harden’s jumps 6.3 percentage points to 32.1%, and he scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. Additionally, Paul Reed would also be a compelling punt, starter or not. He has collected 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and was outstanding when Embiid missed four consecutive games back in November, averaging 31.5 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes per game off the bench.

Evan Mobley (ankle) is questionable after missing the last two, and his absence would open the door for Kevin Love to be a nice mid-tier target. Starting in place of Mobley for these past two, Love has flourished with 38.75 DraftKings points per game. With Mobley and Darius Garland (doubtful, thumb) off the floor this season, Love scores 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5% usage rate.

Finally, both Naz Reid (back) and Taurean Prince (shoulder) are questionable for the Timberwolves, and if both sit, Kyle Anderson will be an awesome value. With both Reid and Prince out Monday, Anderson posted 43 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes as Minnesota’s starting power forward.

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