NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

With a wild amount of changes and value plays galore hitting the board in the hour before lock, last night’s slate went in all different directions. Ultimately, several of the original value targets came through, and a lot of the late pivots did not, which is an interesting situation we discussed in Slack and on the shows. The decision to make changes is important every time a new value hits the board. Opening up a large salary savings at a new position can change the entire face of a slate, boosting the optimal lineup construction via completely different paths. As we’ve mentioned in this space previously, it’s not always about the value of the player himself, but what he allows you to unlock at other positions. If we’re not doing this all the way through lock and beyond, we aren’t ensuring that we are still on the correct path and can frequently end up lost in the middle of GPP standings. With an eight game Saturday slate, we’ll stay focused on the key plays without getting too cute about being sneaky, but still looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contest simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Xavier Tillman – Memphis Grizzlies

DraftKings – $3,500 – PF/C / FanDuel – $4,600 – PF

Saturday’s value play du jour, Grizzlies power forward Xavier Tillman should be getting a gargantuan ownership share on DraftKings tonight. With starting center Jonas Valanciunas in the league’s COVID-19 protocols, we expect Tillman to see significant run. He received 28.7 minutes in a start in the Grizzlies previous game, which is where Awesemo has him projected again tonight, creating an excellent spot for the money on at least one site.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Tillman lands in the optimal lineup 38.5% of the time in our simulations, leading the entire slate. With a 1.01 fantasy point per minute rate so far this season, it is easy to see why Tillman bounces into so many optimal lineups at his low price on the site. He carried a 48.7% boom score probability for the money and looks like the go-to value option on the site, despite a -20.4 leverage score. This is the type of chalky value play that will naturally work its way well above even the large ownership projection for the player, unless more value emerges in other positions.

On FanDuel, the play isn’t nearly as high-end. Tillman will have the same opportunity to produce, of course, but the limitations of having to roster him only at the power forward spot, as well as a price $1,100 more expensive than on the competing site, will knock him down significantly in the important rates we’re exploring. While Tillman does still have a good boom score probability at 39.1%, he comes up in the optimal lineup only 15.5% of the time in FanDuel NBA contest simulations. This simply suggests to me that his ceiling score is exceeded by that of better options at the position, with enough frequency, that we cannot replace their points in a different value-based construction by using him. With the public still flocking to the buzzy industry play, Tillman comes up with a -8.4 leverage score. While I’m sure he will be in my lineups, I would be happy to be at or below the field on the play.

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Chris Paul – Phoenix Suns

DraftKings – $7,600 – PG / FanDuel – $7,200 – PG

the best pure point guard of his generation is still a prime NBA DFS fantasy asset in the right spots and he appears to be going underappreciated across the industry tonight. Over the last three games, with teammate Devin Booker on the shelf nursing an injury, Paul has seen team leading usage of 28.6% which is well up from his mark for the full season, which stands at 21.8%. His assist rate slips slightly, given the requirement to score the ball more, but his rebounding rate remains consistent and he has produced fantasy points reliably but not seen a dramatic uptick in salary.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Chris Paul is second on the site with a 28.5% optimal lineup appearance rate, second only to fellow point guard Damian Lillard. The pair account for 66.9% of optimal lineup point guard slots in our simulations, a significant number at a significant position. Paul carries a 40.0% boom score probability and will be owned right around the correct amount by the public. I can get well above his projected ownership and the 0.60 leverage score, assuming the play looks as good approaching lock.

On DraftKings, Chris Paul is slightly more expensive, which is making him slightly less popular, a benefit for NBA DFS players. The point guard picks up some room in the leverage department, putting up a 5.5 score on the site, given his 22.7% optimal lineup appearance rate. The public is not on this play enough, Paul offers a 24.8% boom score probability that is in the mix with the more highly owned options, and we have the reliability of focus, opportunity and minutes on the court. This seems like an easy spot on which to leverage up tonight.

Bam Adebayo – Miami Heat

DraftKings – $9,200 – C / FanDuel – $9,200 – PF

I can’t be alone in feeling like the Miami Heat have played 14 games in the last five days of NBA DFS. The team just has such an absurd volume of slate-relevant news every time they have a game, due to the sheer number of players on their injury list and in league COVID-19 protocols. They remain banged up and questionable going into the slate tonight. As of the mid-afternoon, their main piece, star Jimmy Butler, remains questionable though he is close to returning. He is the player most likely to have an impact on the production of Bam Adebayo, who has put up strong numbers in several opportunities as the only star on the court in Butler’s absence. Assuming that is the role again tonight, Adebayo looks like a great option. The big man offers a 1.25 fantasy point per minute rate, slotting in as a center on DraftKings and a power forward on in FanDuel NBA contests.

On the blue site, Adebayo’s 24.0% optimal lineup appearance rate ranks him fifth on the site and first at the power forward position. He pulls down a 34.6% probability of a boom score, which would be a big mandatory number for this slate if he gets there. Adebayo is one of the prime power forwards who was pushing the Xavier Tillman value play off the board at the position. He will not be in enough public lineups, coming in with a solid 3.4 leverage score. Adebayo will work his way into my lineups far more frequently.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Adebayo plummets to 21st overall by boom score probability, a total collapse of the play, coming in with just an 11.6%. With a number of strong options at the position and the ability to move some significant value pieces into his role, Adebayo slips to just seventh among eligible centers. Tillman takes up a massive share of the optimal lineup appearance rate at the spot, and another large chunk is consumed by Cody Zeller, who is also a strong play for the price. There simply isn’t as much room for Adebayo and he becomes far less of a requirement. His 22.2% boom score probability is fine, but the same value plays outstrip him in that metric as well. The best characteristic that Adebayo brings to the slate tonight is that he will be under-owned, despite not being a top play. With just 7.2% of the field on him, we can justify getting to more of a productive near star caliber player at a greater rate, given our expectation that he is in at least some of our optimal lineups.

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Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls

DraftKings – $8,800 – SG / FanDuel – $9,000 – SG

Chicago Bulls shooting guard Zach LaVine has been a rock solid NBA DFS option this season, boosting his scoring to 1.20 fantasy points per minute in a series of excellent performances. LaVine averages 35.6 minutes per game, scoring 27 points while shooting 39.7% from three and taking 8.6 attempts per game. He has the ability to rack up scoring-related points in a hurry on a heat check night. LaVine sees 28.9% usage and adds quality production with his 16.5% rebounding and 28.9% assist rates.

On FanDuel, LaVine is priced up for the production we’ve been getting, but he still looks like a quality option at the position and on the slate overall. His 25.0% optimal lineup appearance rate ranks fourth overall and second among shooting guards to DeMar DeRozan, who also looks excellent but will be more popular. LaVine pulls in a good leverage score, with a 3.1, meaning the public is not on him enough, which is intriguing. The 26.5% boom score probability is slightly suppressed by comparison, at 26.5%, but that is to be expected at the higher price. Ultimately LaVine will be a strong play again tonight and if the public is slow to get to him, I want to make him one of my first clicks in tournament lineups.

Switching sites, LaVine remains one of our leading NBA DFS picks. The guard ranks fifth overall by optimal lineup appearance rate, coming in at 17.1%. He scores a 1.5 in the leverage metric, suggesting we have some elbow room on this site as well. With a 22.8% boom score probability and a slightly lower salary, LaVine is very much in play in DraftKings NBA contests as well. He makes an interesting complementary piece to a popular Damian Lillard in constructions. They play in the game with the highest total tonight, if we’re thinking that loose contest gets out of hand he will likely have to match pace with the prodigious point guard.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.