In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom/Bust NBA Fantasy Projections | March 20
NBA DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Spurs: $11,100/$11,400
26.1% DraftKings Boom/33.7% FanDuel Boom
The Spurs are a good enough team to keep this game at least slightly competitive, which is usually all Giannis Antetokounmpo needs to exceed NBA fantasy value. He finished with a 32-point double-double last game and a triple-double in the three games prior. Giannis has attempted 19-plus shots in four of the past five games. While Giannis is obviously a mismatch for nearly anyone in the NBA, the Spurs don’t really have someone to match up with him. With a single-digit spread for the Bucks tonight, Giannis may be the top scorer on the slate and pick up another triple-double.
Paul George vs. Hornets: $8,300/$7,600
19.4% DraftKings Boom/38.1% FanDuel Boom
In a solid matchup, Paul George and his modest price tag are fully in play. He has over a 25% usage rate in six straight games, including over 30% in three of his past five. George should have no trouble scoring against this Hornets backcourt, whether he has Terry Rozier or LaMelo Ball on him. Aside from having 20-plus scoring potential, George has totaled seven rebounds in three of his past four games, four-plus assists in six of his past seven and at least one steal essentially every game. He’s listed slightly too cheap right now.
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Ivica Zubac vs. Hornets: $5,100/$4,500
41.1% DraftKings Boom/64.6% FanDuel Boom
Ivica Zubac has been on fire, in the two past games without Serge Ibaka. He has seen 35 minutes in back-to-back games, which is all Zubac needs to crush NBA fantasy value. If Ibaka continues to be out, Zubac will get high minutes. This is all he needs to be a “boom” play again, especially against the posts on Charlotte. He averages north of a fantasy point per minute.
NBA DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
P.J. Washington vs. Clippers: $6,800/$6,600
72.0% DraftKings Bust/54.6% FanDuel Bust
P.J. Washington has seen his salary rise, but his usage makes him a major bust risk at this price. He finished with under a 20% usage rate in each of the past three games, and in seven of the past 10 games. The matchup becomes tougher if Serge Ibaka returns from injury. Even if Ibaka is absent again, Washington will face resistance from the Clippers frontcourt. He would need a great game, to his standards, to even hit value, which makes him a player to avoid.
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