The John Deere Classic is a staple of the PGA TOUR’s summer swing. The event does not attract many elite names, mainly due to where it sits on the schedule (and the insanely easy setup). However, it’s become a big week for veterans and newer players who need to rack up FedEx points fast as we head toward the season-ending cut-off — where only the top-70 players get to continue and play in the first FedEx Cup playoff event.
The Deere will again be played on TPC Deere Run, a shorter par 71 that’s become synonymous with low scoring. The 7,200+ yard track has a few difficult holes to navigate but solid iron play will allow players to get a birdie look on nearly every hole. The shorter par 5s can also produce dramatic swings and you’ll see plenty of eagles made this week as a result. The list of past winners (Lucas Glover, Michael Kim, Dylan Fritteli, JT Poston) speaks to just how volatile this event can be and also how an elite week on the greens can springboard just about any player on the start list to success this week.
Despite the lower-tier field, there is still a ton of big money at stake for DFS. There has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge. But before you do, make sure you keep reading as the full preview for the 2023 John Deere Classic DFS picks is below.
2023 John Deere Classic DFS Preview & Picks
The top-5 finishers at the Rocket Mortgage the week prior were as follows:
- 1st – Rickie Fowler -24
- 2nd – Adam Hadwin -24 / Collin Morikawa -24
- 4th – Taylor Moore -21 / Lucas Glover -21 / Peter Kuest -21
Coming off a second massive birdie-fest in a row at Detroit, we will have yet another simple course that will do absolutely nothing to stop the players from making a ton of birdies. TPC Deere Run has yielded a 59 in the past (to Paul Goydos) and you will almost certainly see a few players at least threaten to replicate that feat this week (assuming the weather holds up). Last year, JT Poston won this event at 21-under par after shooting a 62 in round one.
Despite the number of birdies you can make here this event does tend to play as somewhat of a front-runners course. Getting out fast and into a lead makes you hard to catch on a venue where you have to work hard to shoot anything in the 70s. It can also be demoralizing to the field who know they need to absolutely blitz the course just to make up any ground.
In terms of who can succeed at this event and venue, it’s been a free-for-all in many regards. We have seen bright young stars like Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau get their first wins on TPC Deere Run (with nearly no course experience) but this event has also been a hotbed for late-career veteran winners as well. Lucas Glover (2021) grabbed his first win since 2009 at Deere Run two seasons ago and this venue has seen others like Ryan Moore, Steven Stricker, and Zach Johnson dominate at times into their late 30s and beyond.
Deere Run doesn’t play much to power but accuracy off the tee does help. There isn’t much trouble to get in off the tee but missing the treelined fairways can lead to poor angles on your approach which can mean trouble. Strokes can also be made up on the pure bentgrass greens which are some of the best the players will see on Tour all season. A dry week will likely help keep scoring down a bit but if the course gets soaked don’t be shocked if the course record gets threatened.
John Deere Classic DFS Picks: Betting Trends
- 10 of the last 13 winners of this event had all played at TPC Deere Run in a previous year and made the cut at least once before their win.
- The last two winners had each recorded at least one top-10 in one of their previous five starts; they had also gained over 4.0 strokes on approach or more in one of their last five starts as well.
- Each of the last six winners of this event had played in the PGA event the week prior. Five of the last six winners had made the cut in that previous start
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:
- Denny McCarthy: The putting god is going to be a favorite for outright bets this week. He sets up great for a putting contest and has now finished top 30 in the last two majors — to go along with a 7th at the Travelers and a playoff loss at the Memorial.
- Eric Cole: Cole has produced solid results all season and is another player who gets a boost from the setup this week. He’s gained over 2.5 strokes putting now in four straight starts.
- Chez Reavie: Reavie has made his last six cuts in a row on the PGA Tour and is starting to play some very solid golf. He was in the mix for the win at the Travelers late and has landed three top-25 finishes in a row now after Detroit.
- Russell Henley: Henley is playing well right and that makes him a danger on this kind of short track. He nearly shot 59 on this course in the final round in 2019 and will be a hotly targeted player this week.
- Alex Smalley: He cooled off a little last week but still grinded hard on Friday to make the cut. Smalley keeps gaining on approach every week making him a great fit for this week’s track.
Field Notes: We’ll get another look at Ludvig Aberg and Michael Thorbjornsen this week. Aberg has looked fantastic in spots but did fall apart on the weekend in Detroit once he got into contention. Thorbjornsen has struggled missing four cuts in a row now… Zac Blair is back in the field this week after finishing second at the Travelers two weeks ago. The finish came a little out of nowhere so he’ll be an interesting name to track this week to see if his form holds up… Peter Kuest is a newly turned pro who finished 4th last week. He’s earned a spot in the event this week as a result.
John Deere Classic Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: JT Poston
- Lead-in: 2nd/MC/23 (played the week prior + gained over 8.0 strokes on approach)
- Stats for the week of win: SG: OTT 2.8/SG: APP 4.7/SG: ATG 5.9/SG: PUTT 2.3/SG: TTG 13.4
2021: Lucas Glover
- Lead-in: 41/MC/37 (played the week prior, finished 8th at Schwab four starts prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.3/SG:APP 7.1/SG:ATG 1.8/SG:PUTT 3.0/SG:TTG 10.2
2019: Dylan FritteliÂ
- Lead-in: 46/46/MC (played the week prior and gained 7.0 strokes on approach)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 3.0/SG:APP -0.9/SG:ATG 4.8/SG:PUTT 7.5/SG:TTG 7.0
The last three winners all played in the event on the PGA the week prior to winning the Deere. Two of the last three winners of the Deere Classic gained over 4.0 strokes on approach for the week. Frittelli was a bit of an anomaly in that he gained massively putting AND around the greens while losing strokes on approach. Most past winners tend to be pretty positive off the tee (for the week of their win) and driving accuracy is an underrated skill to target at Deere Run.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 John Deere Classic Course Preview
TPC Deere Run: Par 71, 7,289 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Designer: D.A. Weibring
Similar Courses: Sedgefield, Colonial, TPC River Highlands
TPC Deere Run is a classically built, tree-lined par 71 that features some of the purest bentgrass greens on the PGA. The venue is insanely well-manicured and the greens give players a real chance to get hot with their putter from 15 feet and beyond. For that reason, nearly every hole at Deere Run represents a birdie chance and it’s led to some insanely low scoring in years prior.
Seven of the par 4s come in under 450 yards in length and that means that wedge play this week will be vital. Shots from 125-150 yards tend to be very popular and for approach proximity stats that is one of the key areas to figure in on. Past winners like Lucas Glover and Ryan Moore used a fantastic wedge game to give themselves a ton of short birdie chances during the week of their win. One of the best short iron players on the PGA, Russell Henley, was able to craft a closing 61 here in 2019 and finish tied for second.
Outside of the obvious need for good approach play and a hot putter, it’s also a week to note which players tend to excel in the driving accuracy categories. The last six winners have all gained over a stroke off the tee for the week, with most of those winners being exceptional short or medium-length hitters (at best) off the tee.
Key Stats: Strokes Gained: Strokes Gained Approach / Proximity (125-150 yards) / Strokes Gained OTT (accuracy)
2023 John Deere Classic Recent Form Watch
Top Strokes Gained Approach (Last 24 Rounds)
- Mark Hubbard
- Russell Henley
- Emiliano Grillo
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Nate Lashley
Top Proximity 125-150 yards (Last 24 Rounds)
- Russell Henley
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Chris Kirk
- Seung-yul Noh
- Cameron Young
Par 4 efficiency 400-450 yards (Last 24 rounds)
- Denny McCarthy
- Taylor Montgomery
- Russell Henley
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jonathan Byrd
2023 John Deere Classic Weather Update
Thursday morning: 68-70 F, winds 6-8 mph/ 10% chance of precipitation
Thursday afternoon: 77-80 F, winds 8-9 mph/ 5% chance of precipitation
Friday morning: 65-67 F, winds 3-6 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
Friday afternoon: 77-80 F, winds 6-8 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
2023 John Deere Classic DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets
Stephan Jaeger | BetMGM Outright
Jaeger has truly taken a leap up in consistency and overall performance this season. Prior to 2022-2023, the German had never made more than 14 cuts in a full season on the PGA TOUR, despite having a full TOUR card multiple times. This season already (with a couple of months to go) he’s already made 20 cuts and is coming off his second top 10 of the season last week in Detroit. While there has been a lack of late tee-off times on Sunday for Jaeger this season the positive signs have been swirling of late. He shot 14-under on the weekend at the Byron Nelson and was also milling about the top of the leaderboard at the very congested Memorial on Saturday.
He’ll be coming to TPC Deere Run for the third time in his career this week and will have plenty of momentum after a final round 63 at Detroit rocketed up the leaderboard. Jaeger is hitting the ball well enough to win right now (especially against a Korn Ferry Tour field, like the one in play this week) so it will all come down to his putter. He’s been very hot and cold with that club of late but gained 2.7 strokes at Detroit GC after a terrible week on the greens at the Travelers. Jaeger has won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour, and all those wins featured fields similar in strength to the one here. With his game in great form, taking a shot on him with an early Monday outright bet this week makes a ton of sense.
Callum Tarren | BetMGM Outright/top 10
If we were giving out awards for the craziest stat line from last week Callum Tarren would have won going away. The Englishman led the field in strokes gained tee to green stats at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 12.3 strokes TTG for the week and over 5.0 strokes on approach alone. Unfortunately, he was an abject disaster on the greens, losing over 8.0 strokes putting for the week. It may not seem like the greatest time to back someone struggling on the greens this hard but we should expect some normalization from that huge loss at TPC Deere Run — and it’s worth mentioning that Tarren has had success at this venue in the last.
Tarren finished 6th at this event last season, gaining over 4.0 strokes putting for the week. The pure bentgrass greens at TPC Deere Run have been known to help out a lot of poor putters (see Ryan Moore and Lucas Glover) and Tarren himself is only four starts removed from gaining 6.0 strokes putting at the PGA Championship this year. Ultimately, he’s striking the ball too well to ignore, and as a top 40/20/10 ladder play makes a ton of sense to target against this weaker field.
