We have five MLB games tonight but there are a lot of good pitchers on the mound. This typically means that we can find an edge in MLB DFS if we are willing to stack teams that make us a little uncomfortable instead of loading up on the teams that are facing the only weak pitchers on the slate along with the rest of the field.
Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice:Â
Game of the Day: Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
This game gives us the most popular stack and the second-most popular pitcher tonight on DraftKings.
The Dodgers’ 5.8 implied run total against Luis Ortiz is the highest on the slate by about a full run. Ortiz has only struck out 13.7 percent of hitters this season with a 5.26 xFIP. Left-handed hitters have a .274 xISO and .436 xwOBA against him while righties have also produced a .222 xISO and .356 xwOBA. The Dodgers’ active roster has a 115 wRC+ and .197 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
It is also a negative park shift for Ortiz in terms of home runs as Dodger Stadium ranks second with a 122 home run park factor over the last three seasons compared to PNC Park which ranks 27th with an 83 home run park factor over that time. The Dodgers rank first in top stack percentage at 19.7 percent with 16.2 percent aggregate ownership and a 12.1 stack score in the Top Stacks tool.
Emmet Sheehan will face Pittsburgh, who has a 97 wRC+ and 22.1 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Sheehan has only struck out 19 percent of hitters through his first three Major League starts with a 5.02 xFIP, but he projects to be better than that going forward. Most publicly available projection systems project a 22-to-23 percent strikeout percentage and 4.5 to 4.7 FIP over the rest of the season.
Sheehan’s $6,400 price tag alleviates a lot of the risk that comes along with rostering a pitcher who has made three career appearances above AA. Sheehan has a 21.5 percent chance of being a top two scoring pitcher and a 32.3 percent chance of being a top two value pitcher at 30.7 percent ownership in the Top Pitchers tool.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,400 on DraftKings
Brandon Belt (TOR): $3,000 on DraftKings
Freddie Freeman (LAD): $6,100 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Mookie Betts: Betts will most likely be leading off for the Dodgers, who have the highest implied run total on the slate as mentioned in the Game of the Day section. Betts’ multi-position eligibility continues to allow us to roster him easily regardless of whether we are fully stacking the Dodgers or just looking for a high upside one-off.
Brandon Belt: Most of the hitters that stand out on this slate are expensive, so it is important to find some value that offers a high ceiling as well. Belt started the season slowly, but he has turned things around. Overall this season, he has a .317 xwOBA and .200 xISO in 194 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He will be facing Lucas Giolito, who has allowed a .238 xISO to lefties this season.
Freddie Freeman: It feels like cheating to list another Dodger, but lefties have just done too much damage against Ortiz to ignore him. He enters tonight’s game with a .411 xwOBA and .214 xISO against right-handed pitching.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $11,500 on DraftKings
Joe Musgrove (SD): $8,000 on DraftKings
Emmet Sheehan (LAD): $6,400 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani has a dangerous matchup against the Padres, but he does get a favorable park shift pitching in San Diego. He leads the slate with a 33.2 percent strikeout percentage, which is about seven points higher than Lucas Giolito, who ranks second. Ohtani has also been effective at preventing runs, with a 3.02 ERA and 3.41 xFIP this season.
Joe Musgrove: Musgrove benefits from a good pitcher’s park and an Angels’ lineup that will be without Mike Trout until August. He has struck out 21.7 percent of hitters this season with a 4.02 xFIP. At just $8,000 on DraftKings, he stands out as a strong SP2 option.
Emmet Sheehan: Sheehan was discussed a bit earlier in the Game of the Day section, but he stands out as a strong value at just $6,400 in a favorable matchup against the Pirates. He posted huge strikeout numbers at AA and it is likely that his strikeout rate in the majors increases going forward.
