Thursday Night Football brings a holiday edition with the San Francisco 49ers headed to Seattle to square off against the Seahawks in a heated divisional matchup. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our 49ers-Seahawks DFS plays for the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these 49ers-Seahawks DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: 49ers-Seahawks DFS Picks
San Francisco 49ers: 25.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Brock Purdy a solid option both for the three-game Thanksgiving slate as well as in the featured Turkey Day Showdown. Seattle has the 25th passing DVOA and the 16th rushing DVOA, with a “bend but don’t break” approach that allows 345.6 total yards per game, which is the 10th most in the league.
San Francisco has a one game lead over Seattle in the standings and they are likely to extend it as touchdown road favorites. The 49ers won both games last season but had five consecutive regular season victories prior to that. Seattle allowed just over 1,000 passing yards in the first three games of the season, though they did tighten up, with Sam Howell the only opposing signal-caller to top 250 yards across the last seven games.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no problem scheming his pass catchers open in this matchup and Purdy should be in the mix for a fourth-consecutive outing with 296-plus aerial yards.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey is having another amazing season and he has touchdowns in nine of 10 games, leading the league with 14 total scores. Anything less than 100 combined yards and a score will be a disappointment for the most complete running back in the game. Eli Mitchell has a dozen carries for 47 yards over the last two weeks, though only one target in the last three games. He should see half a dozen carries, with a chance for more if San Francisco can push to a multi-touchdown lead.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk saw three targets in Week 10, catching two for 26 yards and a touchdown. He has received offensive opportunities in only six games this season, but his 13 touches have resulted in 71 yards and a score.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk has become the lead wideout and he has a team leading 61 targets. Deebo Samuel has 40 targets, though he was injured early in Week 6 and then sat the next two games, plus the bye week. The uber-talented football player should see a couple of carries and he does have three rushing scores, even with McCaffrey in the fold.
Aiyuk has four games with 100 or more yards, including two of his last three, but he has just four touchdowns, though he has scored in each of the last two tilts. Over the last two games, Jauan Jennings has three targets, while Ronnie Bell has one and Ray-Ray McCloud III has zero, with only two offensive snaps with everyone healthy. He is still the main returner but battling quite a few other players to even get into the offensive huddle.
Tight Ends
George Kittle has 56 of the 58 targets to the tight end position and he is second on the team overall. It seems like he is back in the offensive game plan with four or more targets in five of the last six games and that should continue as he will not be needed as much in pass protection, against a sub-par Seattle squad.
Charlie Woerner will be on the field for around 30% of the snaps, but he has yet to get a target on the season. Ross Dwelley has the other two looks at this position, but none in the last three games and he has only been on the field for a handful of snaps during this timeframe.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle is allowing just over two sacks per tilt, while suffering only 11 turnovers through 10 games. San Francisco has 19 takeaways, which ranks second, along with recording 2.7 sacks per games.
Seattle Seahawks: 18.5 Points
Quarterback
Geno Smith suffered a triceps injury on his throwing arm in Sunday’s action and he is currently listed as a game-time decision, but coach Pete Carroll thinks he will play. Last year he led the league with a career-best 69.8% completion rate and while his 65.3% rate this season is still above his career benchmark, he is the QB20 for the category this season. He does rank 13th with 240.4 passing yards per game, but his touchdown rate is lower than last year. This has led to only 12 touchdowns for Smith, which is the same number as Justin Fields and Josh Dobbs, and just two more than Derek Carr and Mac Jones.
If he is not able to start or if he reaggravates the injury, the team will turn to Drew Lock, whom they received as part of the Russell Wilson trade. Lock last started in 2021, when he was with the Broncos and last year he did not get in any action. This season he has just 12 pass attempts with six last week in relief of Smith and six in Week 4. Lock is a distinct downgrade over Smith; however; he likes to throw deeper passes. If he can connect on a few, some of the receivers could post bigger yardage totals, though reception volume could be a challenge.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III (oblique) is not likely to be available, so rookie Zach Charbonnet is likely to assume the bulk of the workload on Thanksgiving. Prior to suffering his injury, Walker had actually been outs napped for three consecutive weeks by Charbonnet. They each have 23 targets on the season, but over the last four games Charbonnet has 14 targets to Walker’s seven. The second-rounder out of UCLA had a career-high 15 carries for 47 yards, and he brought in all six targets for another 22 yards. Projecting Charbonnet for 20 opportunities is a reasonable baseline, though he is going against one of the best defenses in the league.
Fourth-year change of pace back DeeJay Dallas will be the main backup and while he has been in this role before, he has just five games with more than seven carries. All told, he has 108 carries for 450 yards and four touchdowns in his 37 career games. While he is known more as a “third down” back, he has just 38 targets for 60 receptions, 391 yards and a score. He should see at least half a dozen opportunities, but getting into double digits is likely a stretch. Kenny McIntosh is the probably third running back, but the seventh-round rookie out of Georgia does not have any offensive snaps this season. Someone could be elevated from the practice squad or a veteran signed as an emergency option.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett (74) and DK Metcalf (72) once again are far and away the most popular options for the Seahawks. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been seeing around half a dozen targets per tilt, which is solid, though he has not had a good catch rate for most of the year. This trio will take a hit if Smith is out, in what is already a daunting matchup.
Lockett has been dealing with various lower leg issues, including most recently a sore hamstring. Undrafted rookie Jake Bobo has worked his way into the rotation for around two dozen offensive plays per game. He has seen at least two targets in six of the last eight games, which keeps him in the mix for the single-game contests.
Tight End
Smith does not favor the tight ends nearly as much as his predecessor. Essentially it is a three-man committee with Noah Fant (22 targets), Colby Parkinson (18) and Will Dissly (12), each getting a look or two each game. Outside of extreme salary saving strategies, there is not much enthralling about this trio.
Defense/Special Teams
San Francisco allows two sacks per game, with Seattle recording nearly three per tilt. The 49ers have allowed only nine turnovers, and the Seahawks are averaging 1.4 takeaways per game.
Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
49ers-Seahawks DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Seahawks
- Christian McCaffrey: Duh!
- Brock Purdy: Good matchup for him to continue the dink and dunk offense.
- Zach Charbonnet: Wild Card.
- Brandon Aiyuk: Gamebreaker who could make hay in this matchup.
- DK Metcalf: Best chance at a touchdown, defense will be all over him.
- George Kittle: Last three games have seen him tally 149 yards or a touchdown, plus he had the three-touchdown game against Dallas in Week 6. True tight end dominator.
- Geno Smith and Drew Lock: Even at full health, the San Francisco defense is a tough nut to crack, Lock only in play if Smith is out.
- Deebo Samuel: Volume has been down this season, even accounting for the lost time due to injury.
- Jake Moody: Rookie is 16 of 19 on field goal attempts, with two or more opportunities in seven games.
- Jason Myers: Two-time Pro Bowler is having a rough season, but he does have 28 field goal attempts and his 23 makes are the second most in the league.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Seahawks
- Tyler Lockett: Too many good 49er options bounce him from the top-10.
- DeeJay Dallas: Salary saver, but far from a superhero. Main kick returner but could lose out to Eskridge on kickoffs since Dallas is the most experienced running back on the roster.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Still waiting for that breakout game.
- San Francisco D/ST: Pete Carroll offenses tend to limit fantasy production for opposing defenses.
- Seattle D/ST: Less of an endorsement for their prospects and more of an indication that the next section is barren.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Seahawks
- Jake Bobo: Okay salary saver at $2,000 on DraftKings, expecting more than three targets is folly.
- Jauan Jennings: Okay salary saver at $1,200 on DraftKings, expecting more than two targets is folly.
- Eli Mitchell: Could get enough mop-up duty to pay off.
- Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson: Latter has the best salary for his one or two target potential on DraftKings, Fant is the better play on FanDuel. This trio has combined for two or fewer receptions five times on the season.
- Drew Lock: If Smith is starting, those building 100-plus lineups can sprinkle in Lock, though you will not be alone with this gambit.
- Kenny McIntosh: DraftKings minimum, rookie may not be active, even if Walker is out.
- Kyle Juszczyk: You will at least get to see him on the field in prominent spots, touches are another story.
- Ray-Ray McCloud III: Not needed on offense with everyone healthy.
- Ronnie Bell, Dee Eskridge, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley, Jordan Mason and Brady Russell: Time for a late-night leftover snack!
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