Sunday Night Football wraps up the action for the day with a tasty matchup as the Buffalo Bills head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. Both squads are coming off victories, but one team will be disappointed tonight. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Bills-Bengals DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Bills-Bengals DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bills-Bengals DFS Picks
Buffalo Bills: 24.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Josh Allen as the QB3 on DraftKings and the QB4 on FanDuel for the full Week 9 rankings. Even with his interceptions up and his passing touchdowns down by a tick compared to last year, that is offset with a career-high 71.7% completion rate as well as a QBR of 77.0, both of which lead the league.
Allen has five consecutive games with multiple aerial scores, and he has added a rushing touchdown in five of his last six appearances. That means the only game in which he did not have his hand in multiple scores was the surprising Week 1 loss on the road against the Jets.
Cincinnati has the 11th-best passing DVOA, which has done a good job of limiting touchdowns. This can be seen in the last two box scores, where they allowed both Geno Smith (323) and Brock Purdy (365) to eclipse the 300-yard plateau but with only one combined touchdown, and both field generals threw a pair of picks.
Allen will have his work cut out for him tonight, but he is clearly capable of success against any opponent.
Running Back
For as strong as Cincinnati is against the pass, the Bengals are bungling against the run, with the seventh-worst rushing DVOA. Nine opposing running backs have tallied at least 50 or more combined yards, including a trio of lead backs with 118-plus. Damian Harris (neck) is on the injured reserve after a terrifying hit, and it looks like he may be out for a while. Buffalo just signed Leonard Fournette, though he will not be active for tonight’s game.
While it is still around a 55%/45% snap share split between James Cook and veteran Latavius Murray, Cook does have the edge in touches over the last three games, with 41 carries and four targets, while Murray checks in with 21 totes and a trio of targets. Murray is a capable runner and receiver, which means he is always lurking as a viable alternative, further evidenced by his nine red zone looks during this stretch that are two more than Cook.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs has been the apple of Allen’s eye once again this season. Diggs leads the league in targets and receptions while ranking seventh with 93.5 yards per game and third with six receiving scores. The only knock is that he has “just” seven receptions of 20-plus yards, but that is also the specialty of teammate Gabriel Davis, who boasts six such plays among his 31 catches.
This duo has played on just over 90% of all snaps this season, which certainly caps both the playing time and in turn the opportunities for Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. In a twist, Shakir had his best game of the season after seeing his Week 7 snap count nearly double from 24 (34%) to 45 (65%). This resulted in a season-high six targets, and he converted on all of them for 92 yards. That gives him 10 targets in the last two games, and neither Sherfield nor Harty had a single look. It would appear there has been a seismic shift in the pecking order, as Harty has two targets in the last three games, Sherfield a pair and Shakir 11.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox remains on the injured reserve, though backup Quintin Morris (ankle) was able to practice in full on Thursday and Friday. Morris will get the blocking and traditional tight end opportunities, while Dalton Kincaid is more of a receiver than an in-line tight end. Kincaid has 15 targets over the last two weeks, and he is another reason that Harty and Sherfield have been pushed into irrelevance.
Morris has just one target, but, of course, it was for a touchdown back in Week 6 when Kincaid was out. Naturally, this was on Sunday Night Football, which only adds to the legend of backup tight ends in prime time.
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati had ceded 2.4 sacks per game while suffering only half a dozen turnovers, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. The Bills are in the middle of the herd with 1.5 takeaways per tilt, though they have the second-most sacks in the league with 28 through eight matchups.
Cincinnati Bengals: 26.5 Points
Quarterback
In a fun twist, Cincinnati is favored by 2.5 points tonight, playing in front of their faithful fans. Joe Burrow continues to look better and better each week, with his calf strain no longer an impediment to his performance. He now has three straight multi-touchdown game, with eight total in this span, including three last week in a 31-17 upset of the 49ers in San Francisco.
Buffalo has the 13th-best passing DVOA, though the team has had the luxury of facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield the last three weeks. Burrow and company should have the upper hand for a bit while the Bills recalibrate to facing a Pro Bowl level passer.
Running Back
Joe Mixon is typically on the field for nearly three-quarters of the offensive action, and he has averaged 16 carries per game, with no fewer than 12 totes in a single appearance. He also is in line for handful of targets, and though he has just two total touchdowns this season, that could course-correct at any moment.
That leaves Trayveon Williams seeing around a dozen snaps per game and Chris Evans or Chase Brown accounting for the last two or three plays each game. Williams typically gets two or three combined carries and targets, so it is hard to have confidence in anyone other than Mixon.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase has played one fewer game than Diggs, so he technically leads the league with his 12.1 targets per game, though he has five fewer than his counterpart. Chase has only five plays of 20-plus yards, but we know he can score from anywhere on the field. He has 44 targets in the last three games, and that volume should continue, which is a glorious site to behold in the full-PPR scoring formats.
Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are strong secondary options who benefit from Chase pulling the most attention from opposing defenses. Higgins is the more talented of this duo, but Boyd is the steady presence who is on the field for most of the action. Burrow does not really seem to favor one over the other, and either can have an impact with crucial plays since their quarterback is more than happy to hit the open man.
Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas round things out, with each having two targets over the last two weeks. Irwin did popoff for 10 targets in Week 5, but that was when he was filling in for an injured Higgins.
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Tight End
Irv Smith Jr. leads the tight ends with 15 of the 24 targets, including four last week and six of the last eight to the position. He has missed a couple games with injuries but typically is on the field for 60% of the snaps when healthy. Drew Sample is the main blocking tight end, with Mitchell Wilcox working in every now and then. The Bengals prefer three-wideout sets over multiple-tight end formations, which makes a lot of sense considering the talent gap between these two positions on the team.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo has allowed just 12 sacks, which is the third fewest in the league. Cincinnati is allowing three sacks per game, which does give opposing defenses some access to a fantasy baseline. The Bills have the third-most takeaways, but the Bengals counter with the third-fewest turnovers.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Bills-Bengals DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Bengals
- Ja’Marr Chase: Double-digit targets and excellent after the catch; worthy of top honors even in half-PPR formats.
- Stefon Diggs: This should be an epic duel.
- Josh Allen: Rushing upside is the tiebreaker.
- Joe Burrow: Looking completely healthy and worthy of the multiplier slot.
- Joe Mixon: Reasonable salary taking into account lack of touchdowns; he should be among the most popular plays tonight.
- Khalil Shakir: Makes everything possible at just $3,400 on DraftKings; very much in play on FanDuel ($7,000), though still needs a touchdown to be a difference maker on the blue site. Drop him to the top of the next section on FanDuel.
- James Cook: Has the edge, but Murray is never more than a step away.
- Evan McPherson: Great name, even better game! Only misses have been from beyond 50 yards this season.
- Tyler Bass: Perfectly competent kicker, though nothing special.
- Tyler Boyd: Gets the nod over Higgins for the discount.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Bengals
- Tee Higgins: Forever disappointing on prime time, which is no reason to avoid him — but with only one ball to go around on offense, his salary is a little tricky tonight.
- Gabriel Davis: Mr. Efficiency has suffered more than nearly every other big-play receiver in the league with the two-high looks.
- Dalton Kincaid: No price break here.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Bengals
- Buffalo D/ST: Sack upside is real against the Bungles.
- Cincinnati D/ST: Gets a boost for home field; if this game were in New York, the Bengals would drop three spots.
- Latavius Murray: Both of his touchdowns have come in the last three games.
- Irv Smith Jr: Well down the passing game pecking order but is the lead tight end at least.
- Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield and Trenton Irwin: All are viable punts, but hard to see many scenarios for more than three targets to any of them. Harty and Irwin both return punts for their respective squads.
- Trayveon Williams: Should at least get a couple touches, which is more than anyone listed below.
- Reggie Gilliam: Fullback-Tight End hybrid role; rarely has the ball in his hands.
- Chris Evans and Chase Brown: Evans returns kickoffs; there are likely half a dozen offensive snaps available; good luck figuring out which one gets a crack at them if the opportunities do trickle down this far.
- Andrei Iosivas and Mitchell Wilcox: Would not be a shock to at least glimpse them running routes.
- Ty Johnson: Kick returner who is unlikely to get running back snaps unless something befalls Murray or Cook.
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