Monday Night Football concludes the Week 10 action with the suddenly surging Denver Broncos on a two-game winning streak and the Buffalo Bills trying to right the ship at home. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Broncos-Bills DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Broncos-Bills DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Broncos-Bills DFS Picks
Denver Broncos: 20.5 Points
Quarterback
Russell Wilson has regained his infamous efficiency, and he currently leads the league with a 6.9% touchdown rate. Of course, that is offset for fantasy gamers by his 201.6 passing yards per game, which is the fewest since his second season. It has been four consecutive games of sub-200 passing yards from Wilson, though Buffalo has allowed the last six opposing signal-callers to surpass that threshold. The Bills have the 18th-best passing DVOA, so there is some potential upside for the much-maligned quarterback to at least be fantasy relevant.
Running Backs
Only five running backs have posted more than 40 rushing yards against Buffalo this season. Denver continues to use a backfield-by-committee approach, though Javonte Williams does get the first crack at the choice opportunities. He has 80-plus rushing yards in each of the last two games, both of which were Denver victories. Of course, that is punching up the message a bit, as it was 167 yards on 42 carries for a pedestrian 3.97 yards per tote. Williams has looked better, as he is further removed from the knee injury that ended his rookie season. Last week he scored his first touchdown, via a pass from Wilson.
Jaleel McLaughlin is next up for carries, and the undrafted rookie has an efficient 7.1 yards per rushing attempt. He is a capable receiver and actually has two touchdown receptions, along with one rushing score on 52 combined opportunities. Veteran Samaje Perine usually sees more snaps since he is an accomplished pass protector, which is the key to getting on the field over the rookie. Perine should be in line for around 15 to 20 offensive snaps, and that has him projected for a handful of opportunities to produce some fantasy points.
Wide Receivers
Denver has averaged a tick shy of 30 pass attempts per game, which limits the fantasy opportunities for the wide receivers. The aerial attack has produced multiple touchdowns on five occasions and has 16 total scores. Fortunately, a dozen of those have gone to the wideouts, with Cortland Sutton wrangling six of them. Naturally, Brandon Johnson has three on his 13 targets, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has one on his five looks. Thankfully, this duo has just six combined targets over the last five games, though because this is a primetime game, they will be lurking in the wings to infuriate the DFS world.
Rookie Marvin Mims Jr. has only three targets over the last four games, though he is on the field for around one-third of the offensive action. Jerry Jeudy looked like he could be a trade candidate, but there was very little interest in him from the other teams in the league. Typically he is on the field for around 65% of the offensive snaps and over the last four games, he has 23 targets, compared to just 18 for Sutton.
Again, the lack of pass attempts in this offense really hurts the baseline fantasy production for the receivers. When that is combined with Wilson’s general approach of not playing favorites in the red zone, it can be hard to predict the best plays prior to the end of the game.
Tight Ends
Nary a target went to the tight ends in the game before the bye, and it is hard to be excited about any of these players. Former Saint Adam Trautman has 18 of the 30 targets to this position, including nine of the last 14 over the most recent four-game stretch.
In that month, the rest of the opportunities were spread out, with Nate Adkins (two), Greg Dulcich (two) and Chris Manhertz (one) each getting looks. Trautman is on the field for around 80% of the snaps, and Manhertz is next with a 40% snap share. Clearly, they are used more in the blocking game, so at best we are hoping for a fortuitous touchdown opportunity being conjured from a limited offense.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo has allowed only 13 sacks this season, which is the second fewest in the league, while the Broncos have recorded only 17, which is the fourth fewest this season. Both teams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to takeaways and turnovers.
Keep in mind that the Broncos just upset Kansas City last week 24-9, and these teams played two of the last three weeks, with Denver actually outscoring Patrick Mahomes and company 32-27. The defense does deserve credit, but the methodical offense that burns through the clock is also key. Buffalo is a quick-strike offense, but points could be hard to come by.
Buffalo Bills: 27.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Josh Allen as the highest-scoring play on the slate, and he was in the top 3 for the full Week 10 player pool. The sixth-year signal-caller leads the league with a 71.3% completion rate, while his 269.2 passing yards are the seventh most. Allen has accounted for a career-low 25.9 rushing yards per game, but he still gets the ball when it counts and adds six rushing touchdowns. Outside of the Week 1 loss to the Jets, Allen has accounted for multiple scores in the other eight games this season.
Running Backs
James Cook is the clear lead back, though veteran Latavius Murray is still going to siphon away half a dozen touches each game. Each running back has 17 red zone opportunities, and in addition to battling each other, Allen is the true priority near the goal line. Keep in mind that while the Denver defense has tightened up a little, it is still a bottom-3 team against the run. De’Von Achane (203), Breece Hall (177) and Khalil Herbert (103) all reached the century mark, and five other running backs had 70-plus combined yards.
Cook has at least three targets in six of the eight games, but it is a steady drip, as he has totaled just 26 on the season. Murray is a capable pass-catcher, but he has only a dozen targets this season, though he has one in every game. Fullback Reggie Gilliam has one target and no carries this year.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (back) was limited in practice, but he is expected to be a full go tonight. He is averaging nearly 11 targets per game, and his 92.7 yards per tilt rank seventh among all wideouts, while his seven touchdowns trail only Tyreek Hill (8). Of his 70 receptions, 41 have resulted in first downs, though he has just eight plays of 20-plus yards. That makes sense, though, with teammates Gabriel Davis (6) and Khalil Shakir (4) getting more of the downfield looks.
Shakir has wrested the third wideout role away from Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield, though the latter two are still on the field and could get a target or two. Dawson Knox remains out, though in the two games since he was placed on the injured reserve, Quintin Morris was the only other tight end to see the field. However, Morris was out himself in Week 8, and he had only two offensive plays in Week 9.
Rookie Dalton Kincaid has been the biggest beneficiary, though we know he is more of a jumbo wideout than a tight end since he typically is in the slot or split out from the line. Expect to see him on slightly north of 80% of the offensive snaps, with at least half a dozen targets as a baseline.
Defense/Special Teams
Denver is ceding just over three sacks per game, while Buffalo is recording them at a similar rate. The teams are each producing just over one turnover/takeaway per tilt.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Broncos-Bills DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Bills
- Stefon Diggs: Volume, overall talent and ability to score have him as the primary play.
- Josh Allen: Rushing yards are down, but he has run one in each of the last six weeks.
- James Cook: FanDuel has a more palatable salary; drop him three slots on DraftKings due to the premium.
- Russell Wilson: More of a short-order cook than a gourmet chef these days.
- Dalton Kincaid: Love to see the increasing opportunities; he can be flipped with Cook for the discount and full-PPR scoring format on DraftKings.
- Javonte Williams: Seems to be the RB1, but two capable backs behind him keep getting chances.
- Khalil Shakir: Trickledown of the Knox injury has buoyed his baseline.
- Tyler Bass: Perfectly average, but we need salary relief.
- Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy: Sutton just $200 more on DraftKings makes that decision easy; $3,000 discount on FanDuel for Jeudy makes him the clear play on the blue site.
- Wil Lutz: First year away from the Superdome; seventh-year veteran still solid.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Bills
- Gabriel Davis: Slides to this bucket mainly as a function of salary, along with the ascendence of Shakir and Kincaid.
- Latavius Murray: $1,800 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel are appropriate salaries; even if he only has a handful of touches, this is a savvy play.
- Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin: Similar story as Murray, though they have to contend with each other in addition to their lead back.
- Adam Trautman: Skip on FanDuel, but at $200 DraftKings minimum salary, he is in play even if he sees his typical two targets.
- Marvin Mims Jr.: Just three targets in last four games; we have seen flashes of brilliance, but coaching staff appears to not be enthralled with his consistency. Returns both punts and kickoffs.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Bills
- Buffalo D/ST: Homefield advantage.
- Denver D/ST: Will be on the field a lot; it just takes one splash play to make supporters happy.
- Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty: Over/under of 2.5 targets, with the money on the under based on recent trends. Harty returns punts.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: Only in the league due to the good graces of his coach who loves former Saints.
- Chris Manhertz, Quintin Morris, Reggie Gilliam and Ty Johnson: Johnson returns kickoffs; other three should see the field, but there are no fantasy points awarded for good blocking on the main DFS sites.
- Nate Atkins, Trace Atkins, Michael Burton, Tim Burton, Jim Kelly and John Elway: Hard pass.
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
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