CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 9 DFS picks and projections for Wednesday, Oct. 25.
CFB Week 9 DFS Picks and Projections | Wednesday, Oct. 25
Quarterback
Zion Webb ($6,800): A 7.5-point favorite over FIU in a game with a 45 total, Jacksonville State ranks first in pace with a 40% pass rate. After playing well in a Week 8 start, Zion Webb looks to have solidified his starting position over Logan Smothers. Webb brings immense rushing potential behind 335 cumulative yards this year. He carried 22 times last game and eclipsed 100 yards on the ground. While he doesn’t provide much as a passer, Webb’s rushing floor stands out on this slate.
Keegan Shoemaker ($6,600): Despite its winless record, Sam Houston State is a 3.5-point favorite over UTEP in a game with a 36.5 total. Sam Houston State ranks 76th in pace and throws 56.6% of the time. Somewhat mobile, Keegan Shoemaker accounts for 133 cumulative yards, while averaging 220.3 yards per game on 37 attempts as a passer. This volume makes him the second-best quarterback on the slate, but non-running back super-flex builds remain in play.
Keyone Jenkins ($6,200): On the other side of the Jacksonville State game, FIU ranks 42nd in pace and throws 49.4% of the time. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins has shown decent mobility behind 73 cumulative yards this year. However, a poor offensive line has allowed 29 sacks, capping his upside. As a passer, Jenkins averages 237 yards per game one 29 attempts. While the sacks put him a tier below Webb and Shoemaker, Jenkins remains viable for tournaments.
Cade McConnell ($6,000): UTEP is ranked 95th in pace and has a 46.3% pass rate. Gavin Hardison has now missed three straight games and draws the questionable tag. Without Hardison, Cade McConnell has struggled under center. Non-mobile, he would rank fourth among available quarterbacks. If Hardison draws an unexpected start, this situation will jump in the GPP rankings.
Running Back
John Gentry ($5,200): Sam Houston State continues to deal with multiple running back injuries, but John Gentry returned last week. He immediately carried 11 times and saw eight targets, despite many believing he would be limited (not us). UTEP allows 5.5 yards per carry, setting up Gentry for another efficient performance.
Shomari Lawrence ($5,500): One of many backfield committees on this slate, Shomari Lawrence has worked slightly ahead of Kejon Owens of late. Last week, Lawrence out-touched Owens 17-13. While he only saw one target in the pass game, he still participated in a few more routes as well. For those firing on the FIU backfield in a touch matchup, Lawrence gets a slight edge over Owens.
Deion Hankins ($5,700): Playing their third string quarterback of late, UTEP has increased their run rate. This has benefitted Deion Hankins, who out-touched Torrance Burgess Jr. 18-13 last week. Burgess did out-target Hankins 5-2 last game, but they saw similar route shares. Overall, Hankins ranks slightly ahead of Burgess against a Sam Houston State defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Anwar Lewis ($5,900): Jacksonville State has dealt with injuries to Ron Wiggins Jr. and Malik Jackson this year. Jackson remains questionable for this game, which affects Anwar Lewis. Previously injured himself, Lewis carried 17 times in his place last week. If Jackson sits again, Lewis could have some of the best opportunity on this entire slate. FIU allows 5.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers, making this a situation worth targeting.
Wide Receiver
Noah Smith ($6,900): Without their top two projected receivers, Noah Smith has emerged as Sam Houston State’s alpha. He now averages 12.8 targets per game over Sam Houston’s last four games. Behind him, Malik Phillips and Al’Vonte Woodard average 7.3 and 7.7 targets in that same span. All three should be considered, along with tight end Elijah Sohn. Without many elite quarterbacks or rushers, paying up for receivers makes sense on this slate.
Kris Mitchell ($7,400): Kris Mitchell averages 89.1 yards per game on 8.1 targets. Over the last four games, Mitchell’s opportunity has increased to 9.5 targets per game. Behind him, Eric Rivers has actually participated in the second-most routes of late. He saw seven targets last game, making him a solid value play ahead of Dean Patterson and Jalen Bracey. Even tight end Josiah Miamen has solid viability on this slate.
Kelly Akharaiyi ($6,000): With Tyrin Smith doubtful, Kelly Akharaiyi looks like another receiver to pay up for. He averages 63.4 yards per game on 7.1 targets. Behind him, Jeremiah Ballard averages 48.3 yards per game on 5.5 targets and can be used as a pivot. Over the last four games, opportunity has narrowed even further between these two.
P.J. Wells ($3,700): While Jacksonville State remains a run heavy team, they returned P.J. Wells from injury last week. He immediately eclipsed 70% of the routes and received ten targets in his return. This hurt the opportunity for Perry Carter and Quinton Lane, but Wells remains in play as a value option on this slate.
