The new NBA season tips off tonight, giving you a few hours to sign up for Underdog Fantasy and use our Underdog Fantasy promo code to match 100% of your deposit up to $500. This year, Underdog is running a $10 “Double Dribble” Best Ball tournament and at 93.2% capacity from time of this article, there is potential overlay opportunity with a pool size of 56,400 entrants and only 3 hours remaining before lock. This series will cover 2023 NBA Best Ball draft strategies for Underdog and break things down positionally by bigs, wings and guards. Each week, two guards, two wings, one big and one flex, with the top scores counting towards a weekly team total. At the end of the “regular season,” a majority of the prize pool will be paid out to the 11,000 top-scoring teams. These teams will advance to a three-week playoff that will pay out the remaining prize pool money. The top prize for the regular season is $75,000, with an additional $10,000 being paid to the playoff winner.
Today we’re covering the guards, a deep position that has the clearest tiers. Here are the top 2023 NBA Best Ball picks.
2023 NBA Best Ball Draft Strategy & Picks
Luka Doncic (3.6) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.1) are some of the best picks in this year’s Best Ball draft, with Gilgeous-Alexander looking like one of the sneakier picks in the top 6. Anthony Edwards (7.9), Tyrese Haliburton (9.7) and Trae Young (11.1) are also being drafted in the first round. Edwards and Haliburton are some of the brightest stars in the league, with rosters capable of taking a step forward this season. Young looked fine sharing a backcourt with Dejounte Murray (33.9) on his way to 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 10.2 assists. Averaging 25.5 points and 9.3 assists since entering the league creates one of the best floors for a late-first-round pick. Stephen Curry (13.4) kicks off the second round, along with fellow guards Damian Lillard (17.9), LaMelo Ball (18.6), Devin Booker (20.4) and Donovan Mitchell (22). This range has an elite floor and some of the top upside in the association given their explosive offensive prowess.
Damian Lillard (17.9)
A historic 11-year tenure with Portland ended this offseason when the Trail Blazers traded Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks to form the top duo in the NBA. As one of the best iso players and deep shot makers the sport of basketball has ever seen, this situation in Milwaukee will be the best of Lillard’s career. Over 769 games with the Blazers, he averaged 25.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.0 steals over 36.3 minutes a game. With shooting splits over his career of 43.9%/37.2%/89.5%, this is an elite scorer with the ability to score from all three levels. A bump in efficiency and the opportunity to compete for an NBA championship could bring out the best Lillard we’ve ever seen — not to mention the elite pick-and-roll opportunities that come from playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Lillard ran the fourth-most pick-and-rolls last year with 11.1 possessions per game. Of players, with at least six pick-and-roll possessions per game, Lillard ranked fourth in efficiency at 93.8%, behind only Curry (95.1), Kyrie Irving (94.8) and Mitchell (94.2) while scoring more points (12.5) in pick-and-roll than anyone else. Running wingman next to Antetokounmpo should improve Lillard’s shooting efficiency and assist opportunities.
Khris Middleton will revert to a more comfortable third option, with Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis competing nightly for their allotment of shot opportunities. But don’t be mistaken, this ball is going to live in Lillard’s hands more than even Antetokounmpo in the open and halfcourt. This Bucks offense was an elite fantasy target last year, and it just added one of the greatest offensive players of all-time – get as much ownership to this situation as possible.
Jordan Poole (38.9)
The opportunities vacated in Washington are the reason why Poole and Kyle Kuzma are being selected in the first four rounds of Best Ball. Poole has displayed an elite offensive skillset in games without Curry, and the Wizards will offer him the perfect opportunity to flourish. In 26 games without Curry last year, Poole averaged 26.1 points, 2.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists over 33.8 minutes. Broaden that sample size to Poole’s 103 games without Curry, and he still averaged 17.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists over 28.2 minutes. His shooting splits somewhat emulate Lillard’s at 42.1%/33.9%/87.8%. Poole’s offensive game has All-Star potential, but to date, he’s been a difficult shot taker and streaky shot maker. If he grows in decision making this season, don’t be surprised if Poole ends up being the top steal of the first four rounds.
Playing in 158 of 164 possible regular season games over the last two seasons, Poole has increased his points per game from 18.5 to 20.4 and his assists to 4.5. A jump in these two statistics should be expected now that he is a full-time starter and clear top-2 option on the Wizards. Coming off the bench in 39 of 82 games last year, Poole put up 15.9 points, 2.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists over 26.6 minutes as opposed to 24.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 33.0 minutes as a starter. This situation in Washington may or may not lead to a winning team, but it’s nearly a guaranteed sight of entertainment with Poole and Kuzma catapulting 20 shots a piece.
Tyrese Maxey (55)
Maxey is another player that should be in for more steady usage after starting 41 of 60 games last year for the Philadelphia 76ers. The James Harden (49.9) situation is what makes Maxey attractive at this current ADP. He would be the primary benefactor of a Harden trade given a high-usage guard isn’t a part of the compensation. Regardless of these unknowns, Maxey has established himself as an elite shooter with career shooting splits of 47.9%/41.4%/85.8% and two straight seasons of over 40% from deep on more than five attempts per game.
This Sixers unit lacks what Maxey excels at, and it’s clear he is a part of their long-term plans. In the case that Philadelphia finds a trade partner for Harden, Maxey would become the Poole of the fifth round, and he might even have that type of upside without a Harden trade. This is the best Sixers complement to Joel Embiid and should be a priority in drafts if available in the fifth round.
Anfernee Simons (65.3)
The offseason can pull eyes away from safe selections, with all the hype surrounding trade acquisitions and draft picks. This is exactly what the Portland Trail Blazers present, as Simons and Jerami Grant are superior picks over the unknowns of Shaedon Sharpe (113.7) and company. Deandre Ayton (58.5) is no different from Jusuf Nurkic yet is being drafted above Scoot Henderson (62.7), Simons and Grant. Henderson certainly has the potential to lead this team in possessions handled but doesn’t display the scoring upside that Simons and Grant are going to be tasked with given a complete roster overhaul.
It’s difficult to present an argument in which Henderson outscores Simons this season in fantasy, and it feels like his ADP is strictly off draft hype. Simons is now a proven 20-point scorer who has been highly efficient throughout his career, with shooting splits of 43.4%/38.7%/85.7%. Attempting nearly 17 field goals per game and 9.1 3’s presents tremendous opportunity as a seventh-round pick.
