Monday Night Football features the Philadelphia Eagles trying to keep pace in the NFC standings with San Francisco, while the hosting Seattle Seahawks cling to slim postseason hopes. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Eagles-Seahawks DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Eagles-Seahawks DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Eagles-Seahawks DFS Picks
Philadelphia Eagles: 24.0 Points
Quarterback
UPDATE: Hurts will start.
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jalen Hurts as the QB1 for the full Week 15 player pool on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Unfortunately, Hurts is dealing with an illness and is questionable to play. Whatever he has is bad enough that he travelled separately from the team to Seattle.
With the 27th-ranked passing DVOA, the Seahawks have a bend-don’t-break mentality on defense, which has them allowing 243.6 passing yards (7th) and 123.4 rushing yards (10th) per game. They are allowing the eighth-most points with 24.5 per game, but considering their DVOAs, it could be much worse.
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Hurts currently has the third-best odds for the NFL MVP. Tyreek Hill slipped significantly after sitting out Sunday with an ankle injury, and if Hurts doesn’t suit up tonight, he will suffer a similar fate.
If Hurts is out, Marcus Mariota will be under center. Since losing his starting gig during the 2019 season to Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, the former Oregon Duck has made just 13 starts, all last year while he was with the Atlanta Falcons. Nearly three years ago to the day, Mariota came off the sidelines on Thursday Night Football after Derek Carr was injured. He went 17-for-28 for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception while also adding 88 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. That in no way portends anything for tonight, but considering Mariota has barely seen action this season, he is healthy and still only 30 years old.
This should be a get-right spot for the Eagles, who have lost their last two games, albeit to the San Francisco 49ers 42-19 and then last week in Dallas 33-13 against the Cowboys, which are the other top teams in the NFC.
Running Back
Seattle has allowed three opposing running backs to top the 100-yard mark, all since Week 9. Rookie Keaton Mitchell got them for 138 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries in Week 9, while Christian McCaffrey accounted for the other two with 12 carries for 114 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving and then 145 yards on 16 totes last week.
D’Andre Swift has actually been out-snapped 64 to 58 by Kenneth Gainwell over the last two weeks after consolidating the workload for most of the season. Neither player had a target last week against Dallas, but they each saw half a dozen looks in the game against the 49ers. Swift had six and 11 carries in these games, while Gainwell saw two and four. Because the team was trailing by multiple scores in both of those matchups, it is hard to know for sure if there has been a shift in the workload or if Gainwell was getting on the field more for his pass-blocking skills.
The best assumption is that this is still Swift in the lead, though his workload may be closer to 60/40 than the near “bell cow” level it was for most of October and November. The $3,600 discount on DraftKings is 80% and far more intriguing than the $3,000 or 40% savings on FanDuel.
Boston Scott will pop up for a handful of offensive plays, likely garnering a couple of carries and a target. Skip him on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he warrants consideration as a differentiator for those crafting north of 50 lineups. He will also be returning kickoffs.
Rashaad Penny last saw the field during Week 9, getting two of his 11 snaps on the season. Since the bye week he has been missing in action, so a “Remember Me?!” game against the team that drafted him is an unlikely scenario tonight.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have each played 95% of the snaps in most games this season, and that is unlikely to change tonight. Over the last three games, Brown has 13, 13 and nine targets, while Smith has 10, 11 and eight. The disparity between this dynamic duo and the rest of the wideouts is stark. Olamide Zaccheaus has one, zero and one opportunities, Quez Watkins zero, four and zero. Veteran Julio Jones has been mostly invisible the last two games, with zero, zero and three.
Brown has been elite this year, ranking third with 96.8 receiving yards per game while among the leaders in targets, receptions, touchdowns, first downs, plays of 20-plus yards and yards after the catch.
Britain Covey saw action on two offensive plays last week, but he has just three total snaps since the Week 10 bye. He will continue to be the main punt returner.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert returned from his fractured forearm, logging an 84% snap share and four targets after missing a month. Jack Stoll is likely to get a dozen or so snaps and Grant Calcaterra will probably have a brief cameo, but this duo projects for 1.5 targets, with the money on the under.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia has just seven sacks in the last four games, but these matchups have all been against Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Seattle has allowed 10 sacks in the last three games, including four last week with its backup quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks: 21.0 Points
Quarterback
UPDATE: Geno Smith is active, no starter has been announced – Coach Pete Carroll still deciding..
Geno Smith (groin) is unlikely to play tonight, which means a second consecutive start for Drew Lock. Seattle actually likes Lock, and the intent was for him to be the Russell Wilson replacement after the Denver trade. Smith had a magical season last year, leading the Seahawks to the playoffs and setting a franchise record for completion rate. Sadly, it seems that the clock has reached midnight on this Cinderella story.
Lock is not afraid to throw downfield, and this is a dream matchup for quarterbacks, as the Eagles have been in the bottom 3 against opposing signal-callers and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective this season. Last week Lock was serviceable, going 22-for-31 (70.1%) for 269 yards and two touchdowns in San Francisco. That was a tricky matchup, and he can be excused for his two interceptions.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are both healthy, and they essentially split the backfield last week. In a twist, Walker had five targets, while his rookie counterpart had just one look. Charbonnet did have nine carries for 44 yards, while Walker had eight for 21. DeeJay Dallas was back to irrelevance, playing on just one offensive snap.
Charbonnet is the easy click on DraftKings, with a $3,800 savings and the full-PPR scoring format. Walker holds serve on the blue site at only a $2,000 premium.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf has four touchdowns in the last two games, and the salary algorithms have goosed his cap figure well above Tyler Lockett. This duo will be squaring off against James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who are 30 and 32 years old, respectively. Both players are live for 100-plus yards and a touchdown, though it would be a stretch for the duo to dash to that milestone in the same game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be facing Bradley Roby, but the 31-year-old has had more success covering slot receivers than his counterparts downfield. That makes Smith-Njigba less appealing but still in play for tournaments.
D’Wayne Eskridge is dealing with a rib injury, and there is a good chance he will sit tonight. That would allow rookie Jake Bobo to see the field, but even at $1,000 he is a stretch on DraftKings. He has seen at least one target in four of the last five games but just six total in this timeframe.
Tight End
Noah Fant had four targets for the second consecutive week, and he has a rapport with Lock, having played together in Denver. Colby Parkinson has three looks in the last three games and Will Dissly has four. Fant is in play for cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) on DraftKings ($2,600). His counterparts are tournament salary relief at the $200 minimum salary. Fant has the clear edge over Parkinson since he is just $500 more on FanDuel, but he is only a viable tournament option.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle allowed 938 combined yards in San Francisco and at Dallas, though the Seahawks did have seven sacks. Hurts is usually sacked a couple times per game; however, he has just two interceptions in his last six appearances. If Mariota is under center, he is all but assured of throwing at least one pick and will have a similar sack rate to Hurts.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Eagles-Seahawks DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Seahawks
- Jalen Hurts: The illness is concerning, but if he plays, hopefully he can avoid in-game trips to the locker room.
- Drew Lock: Best fantasy-point-per-dollar play on FanDuel, third best on DraftKings among the core players. UPDATE: Geno Smith is active, no starter has been announced – Coach Pete Carroll still deciding.
- A.J. Brown: Seven games of 100-plus yards; at least 94 yards or a touchdown in 10 of his last 11 games.
- Tyler Lockett: Take the savings over Metcalf.
- DK Metcalf: Paying a premium, but this is a pristine matchup.
- Marcus Mariota: If Hurts is out tonight.
- Noah Fant: Makes it all work on DraftKings; drop to the top of the next section for FanDuel.
- D’Andre Swift: Should have the lead over Gainwell, but the recent trendline could actually be sticky.
- DeVonta Smith: Had 10 targets last week, even with Goedert back in the mix.
- Jake Elliott: 12 of 14 from 50-plus the last two seasons; was a Pro Bowler three years ago.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Seahawks
- Jason Myers: Two-time Pro Bowler, including last year; struggling this season from distance, missing four of eight from beyond 50 yards.
- Dallas Goedert: Always a threat and worthy of the multiplier slot for those building 50-plus lineups.
- Zach Charbonnet: Solid salary relief; harder to envision a game where he is the optimal Captain/MVP outside of a multi-touchdown effort. Likely will return kickoffs if Eskridge is inactive.
- Kenneth Gainwell: Increased opportunities the last two weeks, though that was likely due to the Eagles playing catchup.
- Kenneth Walker III: Hefty salary for a shared workload.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Seahawks
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Tougher matchup than his counterparts; still live for a touchdown, and he isn’t always in the slot.
- Philadelphia D/ST: Lock tends to play fast and loose, which allows for fantasy opportunities for the defense.
- Seattle D/ST: Meh, better off if Mariota is under center.
- Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly: Discount Dandies on DraftKings at the $200 minimum; hard to trust on FanDuel on a target or two.
- Quez Watkins: Below the Seattle tight ends on DraftKings but a terrific option on FanDuel at $7,000.
- Olamide Zaccheaus: Well below Watkins on DraftKings with a $1,400 premium; better on FanDuel where he is only $500 more.
- Boston Scott: Likely will get a couple touches, though they will be low-leverage/value; also returns kickoffs.
- Jake Bobo: Should get a target or two; decent tournament differentiator on both sites.
- Julio Jones, DeeJay Dallas, Jack Stoll, Britain Covey and Grant Calcaterra: They will be on the field; over/under is a combined 3.5 offensive opportunities.
- Kenny McIntosh, Dareke Young, Brady Russell and Albert Okwuegbunam: Most will be inactive.
- Rashaad Penny: If active, a troll touchdown would be epic. Eagles need the victory over goofy style points, though.
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
