MLB DFS Value: Dodgers Lefties Look Great Tonight (June 13)

Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections can make your life so much easier. Our Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tool come in quite useful when you’re searching for MLB DFS value plays. Today’s slate is chock full of action, so let’s break down the MLB DFS value picks for Tuesday, which include a few members of the Los Angeles Dodgers like Freddie Freeman.

MLB DFS Value & Expert Advice | June 13

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Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt) at Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)

There isn’t much to love from this game, but there are some secondary options. Chris Bassitt is only projected for about one percent ownership despite about an eight percent chance of being a top-two pitcher. He is far from a priority but is a reasonable pivot in large-field GPPs if you are playing popular hitters.

Similarly, neither offense stands out, but they both offer low-owned upside. Dean Kremer has allowed a .218 xISO to righties this season, and Toronto’s lineup is full of right-handed power. The issue is that Camden Yards has been the third-worst park for right-handed home runs this season after being the seventh-worst park last season.

Targeting Orioles bats may actually be more appealing, as Bassitt has allowed a .229 xISO to left-handed hitters, and Baltimore is likely to have seven lefties in their lineup.

Although Camden Yards kills right-handed power, it has been the seventh-best park for left-handed home runs over the last three seasons (and is currently fifth-best this season). Gunnar Henderson is the top play from this game at only $3,600 on DraftKings with third base and shortstop eligibility.

Colorado Rockies (Chase Anderson) at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)

Kutter Crawford offers some MLB DFS value at just $5,900 in a fantastic matchup against the Colorado Rockies. That said, we probably won’t need to pay down for pitching too often on this slate, since there will be no shortage of inexpensive bats that we can use to round out our lineups.

Boston currently sits second in top stack percentage, thanks to their 5.75 implied run total. One negative for Boston is that Chase Anderson has historically been much better at limiting left-handed power, and Boston’s lineup is likely to be predominantly left-handed.

Still, it is a great park for offense, and the Red Sox have a deep lineup that can do damage against Anderson and Colorado’s bullpen.

New York Yankees (Luis Severino) at New York Mets (Max Scherzer)

Max Scherzer is currently projected for the second-most ownership on DraftKings (31.2 percent) along with the second-highest top-two pitcher percentage (13.8 percent). Scherzer hasn’t been as dominant as usual so far this season, but he has still been good with a 26.6 percent strikeout percentage and 4.04 xFIP.

The Yankees remain without Aaron Judge, which is obviously a massive loss for their offense. Their active roster has just a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, though they have also only struck out 21.7 percent of the time.

Luis Severino has struggled in a limited sample this season and has a tough strikeout matchup against the Mets, who have only struck out 20.4 percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season.

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Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes) at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)

This game gives us two of the best pitching options on the slate. Pablo Lopez has been very good for Minnesota this season, striking out 28.6 percent of hitters with a 3.63 xFIP. Milwaukee’s active roster has a 98 wRC+ and 23.9 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. At just $8,800, Lopez projects as the highest-owned pitcher tonight with the third-highest top-two pitcher percentage in the Top Pitchers tool.

Corbin Burnes started the season off slowly but has pitched better of late. Overall, he has struck out 23.7 percent of hitters with a 4.14 xFIP. His chances of being a top-two pitcher are similar to Lopez’s and Scherzer’s, but he is projected for about half the ownership. Minnesota’s active roster has a 103 wRC+ and a massive 28 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

San Francisco Giants (Alex Cobb) at St. Louis Cardinals (Jack Flaherty)

This game features two decent pitchers against two quality offenses, so there isn’t much that stands out as a priority. Both Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty are viable contrarian options, but neither is a top pitching option.

Flaherty has struck out 23.8 percent of hitters this season but has also walked 13.2 percent with a 4.48 xFIP. San Francisco is tied for second in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Cobb, meanwhile, has struck out 22.3 percent of hitters with a 3.25 xFIP, but he has a tough strikeout matchup. St. Louis’ active roster has only struck out 20.5 percent of the time against right-handed pitching with a 110 wRC+.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Luis Ortiz) at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon):

This is the lone game on the slate with significant weather concerns. If the game goes ahead as scheduled, it looks to be a reasonable spot to target bats, as we have two below-average pitchers facing off.

Jameson Taillon has had huge issues with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .326 xISO and .442 xwOBA. This sets up nicely for Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in particular, making them solid MLB DFS value options.

On the other side, Luis Ortiz has struggled against everyone. Righties have produced a .396 xwOBA and .263 xISO against him while lefties have been even better with a .423 xwOBA and .259 xISO.

Los Angeles Angels (Jaime Barria) at Texas Rangers (Cody Bradford)

Jaime Barria has been very good this season but has mostly worked out of the bullpen. He has made three starts, and each of them lasted exactly five innings. Barria has struck out 24 percent of hitters with a 3.83 xFIP. In his three starts (against Boston, the White Sox and the Cubs), he has a 26.3 percent strikeout percentage and 3.65 xFIP. He has held hitters from both sides of the plate to a sub-.100 xISO this season.

All of that said, the Rangers are one of the best offenses in baseball, and they have a 5-run implied total tonight. They are currently fifth in the Top Stacks tool with a 5.5 percent chance of being the top stack.

The Angels have a favorable matchup against Cody Bradford, who projects as a below-average pitcher at this point in his career, especially with him on short rest. He went eight innings at AAA on June 9, so he probably won’t be able to go very deep into this game, and he could even be less effective than normal. The Angels have about a five percent chance of being the top stack and are projected for about five percent ownership as well.

Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) at Houston Astros (Hunter Brown)

Hunter Brown gets to face one of the league’s weakest offenses as the Nationals enter the game with an 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. However, their active roster has only struck out 19.3 percent of the time, which works against Brown. Still, Brown has struck out 28.1 percent of hitters this season with a 3.07 xFIP. He is also projected to go a bit under-owned at about 17 percent ownership compared to 31 percent for a similarly priced Scherzer.

Houston’s bats look good, too. Patrick Corbin has struggled against right-handed hitters, which is almost exclusively what Houston’s lineup will consist of. Kyle Tucker will most likely be the only left-handed hitter for the Astros tonight. Corbin has allowed a .207 xISO and .395 xwOBA to righties while striking them out just 14.1 percent of the time.

Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson) at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)

These may not be the first two offenses that you think of in a potential shootout, but this game has a run total of 9.5 and is essentially a coin flip. Jordan Lyles has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season with a 5.48 xFIP and 17.4 percent strikeout percentage. He has allowed 2.2 home runs per nine innings, and there isn’t much of a gap between his expected ISO numbers and his actual ISO numbers.

Elly De La Cruz stands out as the top bat from the Reds, but they are a strong stack tonight with the third-highest top stack percentage. Similarly, Kansas City is seventh in top stack percentage but first in top value percentage.

Brandon Williamson has made five starts so far this season, striking out just 17.8 percent of hitters with a 5.64 xFIP. He doesn’t project to be much better than that going forward, with the projection models available on FanGraphs projecting a strikeout percentage between 16 and 19 percent with a FIP between 5.27 and 6.08 over the rest of the season.

Every hitter in the Kansas City’s projected lineups is $3,100 or less on DraftKings, with the exceptions of Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr, making them a potential source of MLB DFS value picks.

Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera) at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)

This game is a likely pitcher’s duel, and both guys are interesting options in tournaments. Edward Cabrera leads the slate with a 29.4 percent strikeout percentage this season and has a strong 3.86 xFIP as well. The Mariners’ active roster has a 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but they have also struck out 24.8 percent of the time so there is upside for Cabrera at just 6.4 percent ownership.

George Kirby projects for 16.7 percent ownership against a Miami squad that has a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Their active roster has only struck out 20.8 percent of the time, but that number is skewed somewhat by the presence of Luis Arraez at the top of the order since he is close to impossible to strike out.

Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)

Zack Wheeler is a good pitcher in a tough matchup. He will be difficult to prioritize on this slate, but, at 8.7 percent projected ownership, he is a viable contrarian pivot in tournaments. He has struck out 27.2 percent of hitters this season with a 3.59 xFIP.

The Phillies rank fourth in top stack percentage against Zach Davies. Davies has done a good job of limiting power this season, holding lefties to a .116 xISO and righties to a .130 xISO. Still, there are a lot of very good hitters in Philadelphia’s lineup who can do damage against a middle-of-the-road pitcher like Davies.

Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee) at San Diego Padres (Joe Musgrove)

Joe Musgrove projects as the most popular value pitcher on tonight’s slate as he pulls about 21 percent ownership at $7,800. Cleveland is a tough strikeout matchup, but they have also been one of the least productive teams against right-handed pitching this season. Musgrove will be facing them in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball on a night with temperatures in the low 60s.

Tanner Bibee is a decent contrarian pivot from Musgrove in the same price range at about 5% of the ownership, but, on a slate of this size where ownership is naturally diluted, Musgrove will probably be the better choice in most lineups.

Tampa Bay Rays (Jalen Beeks/Yonny Chirinos) at Oakland Athletics (Hogan Harris)

Tampa Bay has an implied run total of 5.5 despite playing tonight’s game in one of the worst parks possible for hitters. Hogan Harris projects to be a decent pitcher, but this is a tough spot against one of the best lineups in baseball. Tampa Bay’s active roster has a 132 wRC+ and .179 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season while striking out just 18.6 percent of the time.

Yonny Chirinos is likely to follow Jalen Beeks, and, at just $6,100, he is a viable SP2 option if you really need to pay all the way down. It is unlikely that you will need to do so very often, but he is there in a good spot if needed.

Chicago White Sox (Lance Lynn) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin)

Lance Lynn has had drastic left-right splits for most of his career, and this season is no different. He has struck out right-handed hitters 27.6 percent of the time while holding them to a .307 xwOBA and .136 xISO. Left-handed hitters, however, have lit him up to the tune of a .416 xwOBA and .290 xISO while striking out just 20.6 percent of the time. This doesn’t mean that Mookie Betts and Will Smith are bad plays, but it does make Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy look excellent.

Tony Gonsolin is projected to be slightly under-owned with a nine percent chance of being a top-two pitcher at just five percent ownership. He is my preferred pivot in the Musgrove price range if you are looking to save ownership and want another MLB DFS value option.

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].