There are 14 MLB games tonight, including a game in Coors Field. The pitching options are relatively weak — most of the best arms are risky due to a combination of difficult matchups and unfavorable park factors. As a result, this is likely to be a slate where we can aggressively target the best offenses while mixing in contrarian pitchers. Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice: Back the Astros & Kyle Tucker | July 18
Game of the Day: Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
We don’t have a line on this game yet as the Rockies haven’t announced a starter. Matt Koch is listed on some sites. Others speculate that Noah Davis could make his return to the rotation. Neither pitcher is particularly good, and the Rockies have a weak bullpen, so it sets up as a fantastic spot for the Astros one way or the other. Houston is also inexpensive, as Kyle Tucker is the only hitter priced above $5,000 on DraftKings and the only hitter priced above $4,000 on FanDuel. As a result, the Astros have the fifth-best top value percentage in the Top Stacks tool along with the highest top stack percentage.
Rostering pitchers in Coors Field is typically a bad idea, but there is a case to be made for Hunter Brown tonight at $8,100 on DraftKings. Brown has struck out 28.1 percent of hitters this season with a 3.01 xFIP, and the Rockies’ active roster has a 23.8 percent strikeout percentage and 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Even in the favorable hitting conditions of Coors Field, they have a 23.6 percent strikeout percentage so far this year. It’s a risky spot for Brown, but his salary decreased as a result. He currently has a 9.8 percent top-two pitcher percentage and 9.6 percent ownership projection in the Top Pitchers tool.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Kyle Tucker (HOU): $6,000 on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): $4,700 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel
Joc Pederson (SFG): $4,400 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Kyle Tucker: Tucker is the best hitter on the team with the highest implied run total tonight. The Rockies haven’t announced their starting pitcher, but the expectation is that it will be either Noah Davis or Matt Koch. Davis has made eight appearances at AAA and five appearances in the Majors this season. He has a 6.60 xFIP at AAA and a 5.14 xFIP in the Majors. Koch has made 29 appearances at AAA (28 in relief) and eight relief appearances with the Rockies. He has a 5.81 xFIP at AAA and a 4.49 xFIP in his nine innings with Colorado. He has a 5.11 xFIP in 48 total Major League games. Regardless of who is pitching, it is a great spot for Tucker and the Astros. Tucker enters tonight’s game with a .392 xwOBA and .246 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Gunnar Henderson: Henderson got off to a slow start for Baltimore this season, but it was obvious he would turn things around quickly as he was consistently drawing walks and hitting balls hard. He now has a 123 wRC+ on the season and is likely to be leading off tonight against Michael Grove in hitter-friendly weather in Baltimore. Grove has allowed a .240 xISO and .401 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season while Henderson has a .359 xwOBA and .236 xISO in 248 plate appearances against righties.
Joc Pederson: Pederson is one of many San Francisco hitters that stand out tonight against Luke Weaver. Weaver has allowed a .370 xwOBA and .196 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Pederson has produced a .403 xwOBA and .266 xISO in 187 plate appearances against righties this season and he will get to face Weaver in the best hitter’s park other than Coors Field.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Bryan Woo (SEA): $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Bailey Ober (MIN): $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Jordan Montgomery (STL): $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Bryan Woo: Woo has been excellent so far in his rookie season after being promoted straight from AA. He has struck out 30.5 percent of hitters with just a 6.4 percent walk percentage and 3.29 xFIP through his first seven starts with Seattle. He takes on the Twins tonight in the best pitcher’s park in baseball on a slate without much quality pitching and with a lot of games being played in favorable hitting conditions. The only negative for Woo is that the Mariners are reportedly looking to limit him in the second half of the season, but it is likely they will do so by skipping starts or shutting him down early as opposed to imposing drastic restrictions on days that he pitches. As of now, we should expect Woo to be able to give us five-to-six innings tonight in a great strikeout matchup.
Bailey Ober: Ober will be on the mound opposite Woo, so he will also benefit from the favorable pitching conditions in Seattle. Ober has struck out 24.6 percent of hitters this season with a 4.33 xFIP. The Mariners have plenty of power in their lineup, but they also have about a 25 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season and this park mitigates power.
Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery has struck out 22.3 percent of hitters with a 3.82 xFIP so far this season. Miami’s active roster only has a 19.5 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season, but the Marlins also only have a 3.7 implied run total in tonight’s game. Montgomery has about a 10 percent chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher and a seven percent chance of being a top-two value pitcher tonight at an ownership projection of 16.4 percent.
