We have six MLB games tonight and some very soft pitcher pricing. Even though there are only six games, we can build lineups that project highly since we don’t have to make many sacrifices. As a result, finding contrarian plays will be even more important because it’s easy for the field to land on similar lineups. Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice: Orioles & Yankees Could Shape the Slate | July 3
Game of the Day: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
This game may not have the most ownership going to any particular side, but it is one of the most interesting games as far as having choices to make. Both offenses and both pitchers offer plenty of upside.
The Orioles have seven left-handed hitters in their lineup, including five in the top six and seven in the top eight. New York’s Domingo German is coming off a perfect game against Oakland, but he has struggled with left-handed power this season, allowing a .220 xISO to lefties. Additionally, Yankee Stadium plays up left-handed power. The Yankees are still without Aaron Judge, but they are in a favorable hitting environment on a slate where most stadiums favor the pitchers.
The Yankees will take on Tyler Wells, who has been good this season but struggles to limit power. Wells has allowed 1.85 home runs per nine innings this season despite pitching his home games in a park that suppresses right-handed power. Righties have a .253 xISO and 23.2 percent strikeout percentage against Wells while lefties have had a more difficult time with a .165 xISO and 30.6 percent strikeout percentage. Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton stand out as the top Yankees to target against Wells.
While both offenses are appealing, both pitchers carry upside as well. German is just $7,200 on DraftKings. He has had an inconsistent season, but he has respectable numbers overall with a 23.5 percent strikeout percentage and 4.24 xFIP. Wells, meanwhile, has struck out 26.5 percent of hitters with a 4.15 xFIP. He is only $7,700 on DraftKings despite having the fourth-highest strikeout percentage on the slate (excluding Bryan Woo, who has only made a few starts).
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Ronald Acuna (ATL): $6,600 on DraftKings
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): $4,700 on DraftKings
Byron Buxton (MIN): $5,200 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Ronald Acuna: Acuna faces Guardians’ rookie right-hander Gavin Williams. Williams is a top-100 pitching prospect, but the advantage here goes to Acuna and the Braves. Acuna offers a massive ceiling thanks to a combination of power and stolen base upside. He has taken advantage of the new pick-off rules and bigger bases by stealing 39 bases so far this season. He has also produced a .451 xwOBA and .304 xISO against right-handed pitching.
Gunnar Henderson: Henderson will lead off tonight for the Orioles with Cedric Mullins dropping to the six hole. He will get to face Domingo German, who has allowed a .220 xISO to left-handed hitters this season and he will get to do so in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Henderson enters the game with a .368 xwOBA and .245 xISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Byron Buxton: Buxton is hitting third tonight against Austin Cox. Minnesota’s 5.2 implied run total is the highest on the slate as Cox doesn’t project as a good Major League pitcher, and the weather in Minnesota tonight favors hitters as it is hot and humid with the wind blowing out. Buxton has a .359 xwOBA and .263 xISO against left-handed pitchers since the start of last season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Blake Snell (SD): $8,600 on DraftKings
Joe Ryan (MIN): $10,000 on DraftKings
Logan Webb (SF): $9,200 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Blake Snell: Snell is mispriced by close to $2,000 tonight against the Angels. The matchup is dangerous, but he will be facing them in San Diego, which is a much better park for pitchers than Anaheim. After a slow start to the season, Snell has increased his strikeout RATE to 31.5 percent with a 3.48 xFIP, which is much more in line with what we expect from him.
Joe Ryan: Ryan will have to contend with heat and humidity tonight, but the Royals still only have a 3.3 implied run total. Ryan was roughed up by the Braves in his last start, but that happens to most pitchers who face them. Kansas City’s active roster has an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while Ryan has struck out 27.3 percent of hitters with a 3.70 xFIP.
Logan Webb: Webb will face the Seattle Mariners tonight in San Francisco. Seattle’s active roster has a 100 wRC+ and 25.1 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. They do also have a respectable .163 ISO, but the park suppresses power to both sides of the play. Webb has struck out 24 percent of the hitters that he has faced this season with a 3.07 xFIP and an exceptional 61 percent groundball percentage.
