We have three games tonight, so we will need to be creative and find some different ways to approach this slate. let’s dig into some of the best MLB DFS value plays tonight using Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools. There’s definitely a clear place to start for MLB DFS tonight: The Seattle Mariners vs. the New York Yankees…
MLB DFS Advice: Two Sides to the Story (June 22)
Game of the Day: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Short slates create unusual situations where we have popular teams facing popular pitchers. The Mariners are first in Stack Score in the Top Stacks tool with a 21% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 25% chance of being the top value stack. They’re also projected for 18% ownership. On the other side, Domingo German is projected for 33.5% ownership and a 31% shot to be a top-2 scoring pitcher, and a 40% shot of being a top-2 value. It’s likely that getting this matchup correct is going to be key to winning tonight’s slate.
German has been solid this season, striking out 23% of hitters and posting a 4.28 xFIP. At only $6,900, there is plenty of upside for him against the Mariners, who have a 25.1% strikeout percentage and 96 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season on their active roster. However, the Mariners also have plenty of power, and they get a positive park shift playing in Yankee Stadium. Seattle’s home park ranks 18th in home run park factor over the last three seasons. It has been slightly above average for right-handed home runs with a 103 park factor, but it has killed left-handed power with a 90 park factor. Yankee Stadium, on the other hand, has a 122 park factor for left-handed home runs, third highest in baseball over the last three seasons. It also has a 112 park factor for right-handed home runs, which is fourth highest over that time.
Not only are the Seattle left-handed bats getting a massive boost in park, but German’s biggest weakness this season has been left-handed power. He has allowed a .220 xISO to lefties. Most of the hitters at the top of Seattle’s projected lineup are right-handed, but Jarred Kelenic and Cal Raleigh stand out as excellent one offs or parts of stacks. It is also worth noting that the MLB Sims tool came in over the field on Seattle hitters and under the field on German when I simulated lineups earlier this afternoon.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Randy Arozarena (TB): $5,900 on DraftKings
Jarred Kelenic (SEA): $4,300 on DraftKings
Cal Raleigh (SEA): $4,400 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Randy Arozarena: Kansas City will be using their bullpen tonight against Tampa Bay, which isn’t ideal for opposing hitters since they will only see most pitchers one time. Still, the Rays have a five run implied total, which is over a run higher than every other team on the slate. Arozarena has a 157 wRC+ and .283 ISO against left-handed pitching and a 162 wRC+ and .186 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, so he is going to look good regardless of who Kansas City has on the mound.
Jarred Kelenic: Kelenic was mentioned in the game breakdown above, so we can dive into more detail here. He got off to a rough start early in his Major League career and was sent back to AAA. Since then, however, he has lived up to his status as a top hitting prospect. Since the start of last season, he has a .205 ISO against right-handed pitching, and he gets a massive park boost tonight in New York.
Cal Raleigh: Raleigh was also mentioned earlier, and he is a top option tonight at a weak catcher position. He has produced a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and, like Kelenic, will look to take advantage of German’s struggles against left-handed hitters.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shane McClanahan (TB): $10,300 on DraftKings
Mitch Keller (PIT): $9,900 on DraftKings
Braxton Garrett (MIA): $7,900 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Shane McClanahan: McClanahan projects as the top pitcher tonight and he has a 52.4% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool. Kansas City’s active roster has a 101 wRC+ and 22.9% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. McClanahan enters tonight’s game with a 27.2% strikeout percentage and 3.70 xFIP.
Mitch Keller: Keller has finally put it all together and turned himself into a very good starting pitcher. He has struck out 28.3% of hitters this season, which is the highest on the slate (excluding Bryan Woo’s lone start), and he also has a 3.31 xFIP. Miami has been winning games at a high rate lately, but their active roster still only has a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Braxton Garrett: Garrett is in the midst of an excellent season, striking out 27.6% of hitters and posting a 2.88 xFIP. Pittsburgh’s active roster has a 104 wRC+ with just a 19.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, but Garrett is only $7,900 on DraftKings so we shouldn’t be overly concerned with the difficult strikeout matchup. The bigger concern is that he has allowed a .207 xISO to right-handed hitters this season, but Miami’s stadium is second from the bottom in home run park factor for right-handed hitters over the last three seasons.
