The UFC heads to Jacksonville for UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria, with Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber in the co-main event. There are lots of great UFC DFS picks on the card aside from the headliners, and we will cover them below to find value with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections.
UFC Jacksonville DFS Picks for Josh Emmett-Ilia Topuria
Salaries from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Mateusz Rebecki ($8,400)
In one of the earlier fights on the card, Mateusz Rebecki takes on Loik Radzhabov as a -150 favorite. Rebecki enters this fight with a 17-1 record and won his UFC debut in January against Nick Fiore. On the other side, Radzhabov also won his first UFC fight this March after out-grappling Esteban Ribovics. Overall, he has a 17-4 record.
This fight projects for the second-highest pace, according to Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections. Both fighters love to grapple, which notoriously scores well in DFS. Rebecki averaged 4.15 takedowns per minute, with 62% accuracy. He is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with six victories by submission.
Radzhabov is already 32 despite making his UFC debut this year. However, he likes to push the pace and landed 11 takedowns in his first UFC bout. That said, he has a tendency to take risks on the ground, and his cardio has left him open in the past. Against a premier grappler like Rebecki, this could pose a major problem.
Rebecki’s grappling chops and power on the feet stand out from a UFC DFS perspective. For those getting risky, Radzhabov is not a bad underdog given the projected pace in this fight.
Tabatha Ricci ($8,300)
This is another grappler’s paradise, with Gillian Robertson taking on Tabatha Ricci as a +115 underdog. Robertson has had an up-and-down career, but she has won each of her last two fights and her overall record is 12-7. On the other side, Ricci has rattled off three straight victories after dropping her UFC debut to Manon Fiorot.
Like the previous bout, this fight should have an awesome pace, projecting for the fourth highest in Stokastic’s tools. Robertson is a lethal submission grappler; Of her 12 wins, nine have come via submission, and she lands 2.63 takedowns per bout at an accuracy clip of 42%. Some may view her 25% takedown defense as a weakness, but she often welcomes the ground attacks of her opponents.
Ricci has a pretty good ground game herself, averaging 4.64 takedowns per bout, with 51% accuracy. Ricci has three wins by submission and has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. This should give her enough defense to hold off the submission attempts from Robertson. On the feet, Ricci should have an advantage like most fighters do against Robertson.
The elite pace makes this a fantastic fight to target for DFS. To make the fight even more appetizing, both fighters have a knack for finding the finish.
David Onama ($7,000)
For those looking for underdogs with upside, look no further than David Onama against Gabriel Santos. Onama is a +180 underdog after losing his most recent fight to Nate Landwehr. He is 2-2 in the UFC and 10-2 in his career. On the other side, Santos lost a split decision to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut earlier this March. According to Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections, this should be the highest-paced fight on the entire card.
Santos averages five takedowns per bout and 4.6 significant strikes per minute. Onama only has 45% takedown defense, which should give Santos a path to victory. Onama has struggled against grapplers in the past, but he has also shown the ability to work to his feet.
Onama is an athletic striker who lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.06 takedowns per bout. Santos absorbed 93 strikes in his UFC debut and has a negative striking differential. His 42% striking defense also poses a major problem against a finisher like Onama.
This fight should be fireworks from the start. While Onama is the underdog for a reason, the pace and lack of experience on both sides make him a live underdog here.
