The Genesis Scottish Open marks the beginning of a two-week stint in the United Kingdom where the randomness of links golf awaits. The 2023 Scottish Open is being played at the Renaissance Club once again this season and while it may be somewhat simple for a links course, that doesn’t change the fact that it’s located near the sea and receives zero protection (because of its openness) from any prevailing weather or wind that comes in off the coast. Nevertheless, in this post we’ll be making our Genesis Scottish Open First Round leader pickers, general DFS review, and so much more.
With that in mind, this week’s first-round leader bets have targeted longshots, with an eye to going quantity over quality, and perhaps trying to play a slight weather angle as well. Right now, the wind appears like it will be flat most of the day with gusts in the 14 to 17 mph range. That means morning starters won’t really have an advantage and theoretically will also be playing in cooler conditions with morning weather looking dreary at 50 to 54 F to start out, with potential early-morning rain falling as well.
As such, it will not be a shock if there is a nice receptive course for the afternoon starters and a few better scores from the afternoon side given the warmer temperatures. With some nice longshots and links specialists hiding in the afternoon wave, those are the focuses for most of the bets for this week.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for Rocket Mortgage Classic first-round leader selections.
Genesis Scottish Open First-Round Leader Bets
Seamus Power First Round Leader (+8000) at DraftKings
While this isn’t a home game for Irishman Seamus Power, he is someone who is familiar with the area and has the requisite game to make some noise on a course like the Renaissance. Some of Power’s best results on the PGA Tour have come on coastal-style setups, posting a win in Bermuda (on another open venue that is just off the sea) and two top-5 finishes at the RSM Classic on Sea Island, which takes on a modified links style course which, again, is right off the sea. This is all to say that the Renaissance should be right up Power’s alley. While his iron game has been off for a while, he gained over four strokes on approach in his last start and he remains one of the savviest putters on tour, having gained over a stroke putting now in four straight starts. Power has an earlier tee time but provides exposure to the morning side of things in case things get hairy in the afternoon. He makes for a great back on recent form alone for this Thursday at +8000.
Adam Scott First-Round Leader (+6000) at DraftKings
Scott performed well in his last start, landing a top-5, first-round leader hit at +1000 at the Travelers, on a day where was actually nine under par through 17-holes. A double bogey late cost him that day but Scott again showed that the hard work he’s been putting in this season may be close to paying off. He has a great links record and should have won the Open back in 2012 at Royal Lytham & St Annes before bogeying his final four holes of the event. Scott’s not a regular at this event but has played it a lot and landed in fourth place at this event way back in 2009. With his iron game showing improvement in his last start, there is no reason to think that he can’t potentially dial it up a step further this week and have an even better opening round. He’s got a nice early-afternoon tee time to play our weather angle and decent enough odds to take a look with.
Alex Noren First Round Leader (+8000) at BetMGM
Alex Noren is a great links player who is coming in off the back of a solid start. He posted his best finish of the season in Detroit with a ninth-place finish and gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in that start alone. Considering he’s made a few cuts of late without his irons doing much is significant as he’s remained steady in his putting. When Noren putts well he’s a danger to go low on more simple courses and while the wind may make the Renaissance Club slightly less of a pushover this year than in say, 2019, good scores will likely still be able to be had this week. A former winner of this event back in 2016 he looks like a great momentum target for Thursday and a player with a later afternoon tee time which should avoid the cooler temperatures.
Genesis Scottish Open First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Matthew Southgate First Round Leader (+13000) at DraftKings
We are getting really long with our longshots this week and with good reason. The links venue in play will be an advantage to a handful of European Tour players who have played a lot of links courses in this part of the world and thrived in just these kinds of setups. Matthew Southgate just so happens to be one of those players, as he has already accumulated two top-15 finishes at Open Championship and, more recently, finished 10th at this week’s venue/event back in 2020 as well. The links specialist comes into this week off a solid 10th-place finish in Denmark where he closed with the round of the event, shooting 61 to move from even to 9-under-par. Now back at another familiar venue, his odds are long enough to take a small shot that the momentum he gained from that last outing flickers back up for a similar round this Thursday.
Ross Fisher First Round Leader (+20000) at DraftKings
To go even deeper, there is another Englishman sitting at +20000 who knows his way around a links setup as well. Ross Fisher actually holds the course record at St. Andrews, which is located just across the sea from the Renaissance Club. Fisher had been slumping badly prior to 2023 but has pulled himself out of it with some fine finishes of late. Last week in Denmark, he was able to open and close his event with rounds of 66 and his ball striking was some of the best in the field as he ranked 4th in strokes gained approach stats. A solid iron player, he’s got the kind of game that can attack this shorter venue if the winds die down in the afternoon. At a massive 200-1, you can’t go wrong with the price.
