Thursday Night Football has the Cleveland Browns hosting New York with their playoff hopes on the line. Meanwhile, the Jets are eliminated from the postseason themselves, but they can still play spoiler. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Jets-Browns DFS plays for the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Jets-Browns DFS picks.
NFL DFS TNF Showdown Picks: Jets-Browns DFS Picks
New York Jets: 13.25 Points
Quarterback
It may not seem like it now, but by mid-June when the NBA Finals are over and MLB is several months into the season, DFS gamers would do almost anything to have this game occur during the summer doldrums. Instead, tonight we are left with a hapless team running out its fourth-string quarterback against one of the best defenses in the league.
On Sunday, Trevor Siemian tallied just 217 yards on a whopping 49 attempts. That left 27 completions to help with some additional fantasy goodness, but he will be hard-pressed to match his one passing touchdown tonight. Siemian projects as the worst quarterback in the full Week 16 player pool, with the ignominious distinction of being the only field general projected for single-digit fantasy points.
Running Back
Breece Hall picked up some serious fantasy points last week with 20 attempts for 95 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and turning his 16 —Â yes SIXTEEN — targets into 12 receptions for another 96 yards. That was against an abysmal Washington defense, but unless cooler heads prevail and the coaches decide not to run Hall into the ground, he should at least get volume tonight. Production — well, that, of course, is a different story.
Sane coaches and management would look to protect their best player in a meaningless game; however, Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas are clearly on the hot seat. Owner Woody Johnson confirmed he would not fire the duo because of the Aaron Rodgers injury, but he did not guarantee they would still have jobs two weeks from now.
Hall was on the field for 77% of the snaps last week in the victory, with Israel Abanikanda garnering 18% and Dalvin Cook all but an afterthought at 6%. Abanikanda was a fifth-round selection from the University of Pittsburgh, and he had nine carries for 43 yards on his 16 plays. It makes sense that he will get at least a similar workload tonight as the team starts to figure out what it has on the roster and what it will need for next year, besides a functioning quarterback.
Cook will likely get a couple of targets, but he has seen his carries fall from nine to seven to just one last week. His best path to opportunities would be the prudent move of the team taking it easy with Hall. Abanikanda (ankle) is listed as questionable, so make sure to get an update on his health expectations.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson probably could not have imagined a worse quarterbacking situation, even in his worst nightmares. He had 15 targets on Sunday, but that was against one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and now he is facing one of the best. Allen Lazard had just one target in the last game, and he is currently questionable with an illness, which a savvy veteran would parlay into a night off considering this matchup.
Xavier Gipson and Jason Brownlee will be on the field and running routes, but they saw just two and three targets, respectively, out of the 49 passes thrown against the Commanders. These four receivers were the only ones who saw action in the last game, though if Lazard is out tonight, Irvin Charles will probably get a few snaps on offense. He has not been targeted on any of his 21 plays this season.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin was third on the team with seven targets last week, so at least Siemian was locked in on his three best options. Jeremy Ruckert was on the field for 23% of the plays, but he did not receive a target. Kenny Yeboah had 23 snaps and one target on Sunday. This is Conklin-or-bust spot, with Yeboah as an extreme wild card, even with Rucker (concussion) out.
Defense/Special Teams
The Browns did not allow a sack last week, and they have ceded just five over the last three games. New York has recorded nine quarterback takedowns in the same timeframe and should be good for a couple tonight. The Jets have just two interceptions in the last month, both coming against Washington, but the secondary has four games with multiple picks, and that is certainly in play tonight.
Cleveland Browns: 20.75 Points
Quarterback
This is one of the best “Remember Me?!” games that we have seen in a long time. Joe Flacco was on the Jets roster each of the last three seasons and made nine starts, including four last year for New York. He could have been signed by anyone for the majority of the season, until Cleveland finally gave him a chance out of pure desperation.
Similar to the Jets, the Browns have started four different quarterbacks this season. However, unlike New York, Cleveland saw each of its varied signal-callers garner a victory while under center. Flacco is exactly who he has been for the last few seasons: An aging quarterback who can still throw a decent deep ball but who takes too many chances and is typically capped by the talent around him. Of course, he also has produced better than any of the Browns’ other signal-callers, so sorry, Deshaun Watson, even though you are done with an injury, when you were healthy you were not that good anyway.
New York has the third-best passing DVOA, so this is going to be a tough matchup for Flacco, but one he will be ready for considering his familiarity with the team. In his four games, Flacco has averaged 44 pass attempts and crossed over the 300-yard threshold three times. Yes, he does have seven interceptions, but he has 10 passing touchdowns, with at least two in every tilt.
Running Back
Jerome Ford is not going to make anyone forget about Nick Chubb, but he has at least been competent in all facets of the game. Kareem Hunt should see action on around one-third of the snaps, with Pierre Strong Jr. working his way on to the field around a dozen times tonight.
Consider Ford with a baseline of 12 carries and a chance for more if the Browns are in control. Hunt will probably be in the 6 to 8 range, and each back can be penciled in for three targets. Strong is a longshot and not likely to get more than a couple of touches, outside of a wildly lopsided game or if Ford is injured.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper set a Cleveland franchise record with 265 yards last weekend, catching 11 of 15 targets and scoring twice. He also became the first Browns wideout with back-to-back seasons of more than 1,000 receiving yards. In the four games with Flacco, he has 32 targets, while Elijah Moore (another former Jet) has 25, while Cedric Tillman rounds out the top trio with 20. David Bell (7) and Marquise Goodwin (2) are deep cuts.
Cooper is dealing with a sore heel, but it sounds like he is expected to play in what is a near-must win situation. If he is out, then Moore and Tillman will become core options, with Bell and Goodwin (knee) getting a boost if you think Flacco throws 40 times for a fifth consecutive week.
Tight End
David Njoku has been on a tear this season, producing with pretty much everyone who has been under center. He has 31 targets from Flacco over the last three games for 22 receptions, 239 yards and four scores. Harrison Bryant will be on the field for around 30% of the snaps, but anything more than a target or two would be an outlier. Jordan Akins is in a similar boat, with a 20% snap share and maybe a look from Flacco if he is lucky.
Defense/Special Teams
Over the last three games, the Browns have 10 sacks, eight interceptions and a pair of fumble recoveries. They are taking on a fourth-string quarterback and will have the Dawg Pound cheering them on. In a rare statement, yes — this unit can be considered a core play tonight.
Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Jets-Browns DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Jets-Browns
- Joe Flacco: This was not on anyone’s bingo card.
- Amari Cooper: If there are no concerns about his heel, he is the second-best option across the board.
- Breece Hall: Coaches do dumb things, but it would be a surprise to see him approach his 36 opportunities of last week; still, even with 20-ish he is in play.
- David Njoku: What a wild carousel ride it has been for Njoku this year.
- Garrett Wilson: Will have all the attention of the defense.
- Jerome Ford: Tough matchup, and volume has slid with the team letting Flacco get Whacko.
- Cleveland D/ST: Core play tonight.
- Riley Patterson: Cut by Detroit, starting tonight in place of the injured Dustin Hopkins.
- Trevor Siemian: Probably should be dropped to the next section, but he is one of two starting quarterbacks in the player pool.
- Elijah Moore: Could be in line for the rare “Remember Us?!” touchdown with Flacco.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Jets-Browns
- New York D/ST: Flacco should be good for a couple of sacks and turnovers.
- Greg Zuerlein: Dealing with a quad issue, pay attention to his status.
- Tyler Conklin: Steady producer all season despite nothing but dreck at quarterback.
- Kareem Hunt: Should be a low-scoring game, and he is live for a touchdown.
- Cedric Tillman: If Cooper is out, Tillman will move up to Moore’s slot and Moore will go just below Njoku.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Jets-Browns
- Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson: Lazard is dinged up; Gipson is the main kick returner for New York.
- Israel Abanikanda and Dalvin Cook: Abanikanda was limited for the short week with an ankle issue. He has the slight edge over Cook, but if healthy, both could see a few extra touches in a lopsided game if the team prudently protects Hall.
- Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins: Backup tight ends, woo hoo!
- David Bell: Better at wide receiver than former Cleveland baseball player David Bell.
- Kenny Yeboah and Pierre Strong: Last two players with a slim chance at half a dozen fantasy points. Strong returns kickoffs.
- Marquise Goodwin, Irvin Charles, James Proche: Proche returns punts, the other two are returning Christmas gifts.
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