Tonight’s slate is very similar to last night, as there are 13 games, including the Dodgers in Coors Field getting an implied run total north of seven. They are going to be the most popular offense on the slate by a wide margin, with most other offenses being relatively low-owned. One of the most common ways to approach a slate like this is to aggressively target low-owned pitching that allows for rostering the best, most popular bats. This is the approach being recommended by Stokastic’s MLB Sims tool tonight, and it makes a lot of sense on this slate.
Looking for more MLB DFS advice? Check out our MLB articles and tools, including our industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for our MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.
MLB DFS Advice Today: Run Back the Dodgers | June 28
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
The Dodgers are the most important team for the second slate in a row. They will be taking on Kyle Freeland, who has only struck out 14.6% of hitters this year and has a 4.95 xFIP. The Dodgers active roster has a 117 wRC+ and .202 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Freeland has held left-handed hitters to a .302 xwOBA and .135 xISO this year, but that does not mean anyone should be afraid to roster Freddie Freeman or Max Muncy in stacks since they are both very good hitters, and the hope is to get Freeland out of the game early.
Freeman and Muncy both have an xISO above .200 against left-handed pitching since the start of last season as well. Mookie Betts, Freeman, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez all have an xwOBA of at least .380 against left-handed pitching since the start of last year, while Muncy has a .351 xwOBA. The lowest xISO in that group is Muncy’s .218. Following them in the projected lineup is Miguel Vargas, who has a .330 xwOBA and .196 xISO in 106 plate appearances against lefties over that time.
The bottom of the order, which projects to be Jonny DeLuca, either James Outman or Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas does not have as much success, but they are also inexpensive. DeLuca and Outman also do not have much of a sample size since they have not been in the major leagues for very long.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $6,500 on DraftKings
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,100 on DraftKings
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): $4,600 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: The nice thing about 13-game slates that have a team with a 7.4 implied run total is that recommending the best player in baseball counts as being different. With so many expensive Dodgers hitters to choose from, Ohtani is only projected for about 9% ownership tonight against Lucas Giolito in Anaheim. Giolito is a good pitcher overall, but he has allowed a .260 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Ohtani, meanwhile, has produced an absurd .444 wOBA and .360 ISO against righties this year, and those numbers are fully supported by a .438 xwOBA and .353 xISO.
Mookie Betts: Betts is the only Dodgers hitter specifically recommended in this section, but keep in mind that they are all top options, as mentioned in the Game of the Day section. Betts should be the easiest to get into lineups, however, as he has shortstop and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and second base, shortstop, and outfield eligibility on FanDuel. Betts has a .417 wOBA and .321 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. On top of that, Freeland’s two most frequently thrown pitches to right-handed hitters are his sinker and slider. Betts has a .647 wOBA and .565 ISO in 52 plate appearances that have ended on a left-handed sinker over the last two years, along with a .403 wOBA and .359 ISO in 41 plate appearances that have ended on a left-handed slider.
Gunnar Henderson: This one is a little off the board, as Henderson is only projected for about 7% ownership, but again, the Dodgers hitters have been talked about enough by now. Henderson is relatively inexpensive on DraftKings at $4,600, and he has third base and shortstop eligibility. Baltimore has faced left-handers in its last two games, which resulted in Henderson not starting two games ago and striking out repeatedly last night. Luke Weaver will be on the mound for the Reds tonight, however, so Henderson looks great. Weaver has allowed a .384 xwOBA and .209 xISO to left-handed hitters this season, and he has only struck them out 14.8% of the time. Henderson has a .377 wOBA and .286 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
A couple of other reasons to like Henderson are that, in addition to Weaver struggling to limit left-handed power, Camden Yards has the fifth-best home run park factor for left-handed hitters over the last three years. Also, Weaver’s inability to strike out lefties plays to Henderson’s strengths. Henderson’s biggest issue this season has been his elevated strikeout rate, as he has struck out about 29% of the time against right-handed pitchers and 29.9% of the time overall. When he has hit the ball, however, he has been one of the best in baseball in terms of quality of contact. Using FanGraphs metrics, only 10.3% of his balls in play have qualified as soft contact this year, while 42.1% have qualified as hard contact. To put that in context, he ranks 15th of 154 qualified hitters in soft-contact rate and eighth in hard-contact rate. The only players that have been the same or better than him in both categories are Josh Jung, Ryan McMahon, Ronald Acuna and J.D. Martinez.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Kodai Senga (NYM): $10,100 on DraftKings
Blake Snell (SD): $10,300 on DraftKings
Domingo German (NYY): $8,000 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Kodai Senga: Senga has a favorable matchup tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers in Citi Field. The Brewers active roster has a 24.2% strikeout rate and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and they get a park downgrade hitting in New York. Senga’s 28% strikeout rate this year trails only Blake Snell and Braxton Garrett on tonight’s slate.
Blake Snell: Snell started the season slowly, but he has returned to form as the year has gone on. He enters tonight’s game with a 30.7% strikeout rate and 3.58 xFIP. Pittsburgh’s active roster is difficult to strike out, with a 20.7% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of last year, but it also ranks 19th in wRC+ over that time, and Snell will face them in a favorable park for pitchers.
Domingo German: German is projected to be over-owned in the Top Pitchers Tool, with a 9.1% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher and a 7.7% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher at nearly 26% ownership. That said, he projects as the best mid-range arm on the slate in a favorable matchup against the Athletics in Oakland. German has had back-to-back horrible starts, but he has struck out 22.6% of hitters this season and has a 4.37 xFIP. German has been extremely home run prone, as he has allowed 1.87 home runs per nine innings. Yankee Stadium has a 115 home run park factor over the last three years, however, compared to 83 for Oakland. In context, that means that German’s home park has been the third-best park for hitters to hit home runs over the last three seasons, while the stadium that he is pitching in tonight has been the fourth worst. On top of that, Oakland’s active roster ranks 28th with a .134 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, and its 24.8% strikeout rate is the fourth highest.
Final MLB Notes for Today
This slate is conducive to finding contrarian pitching options, so the preferred GPP pivots in each price range are included here.
Expensive Chalk: Blake Snell (28.3% Ownership at $10,300)
Expensive Pivot: Kodai Senga (18.0% Ownership at $10,100)
Mid-Range Chalk: Domingo German (25.8% Ownership at $8,000) and J.P. Sears (22.8% Ownership at $7,100)
Mid-Range Pivots: Braxton Garrett (2.1% Ownership at $8,700) and Logan Allen (5.6% Ownership at $8,000)
Value Chalk: Dane Dunning (22.8% Ownership at $6,100)
Value Pivot: Trevor Richards (0.5% Ownership at $5,500)*
*Note that this is the most difficult range to find a comparable pivot, and Richards is likely to only throw 50 to 60 pitches even if he pitches well. He does have a good strikeout matchup, however, and has excellent strikeout numbers this season.
