MLB DFS Advice Today: Mariners-Twins a Key Part of Spread-Out Slate (July 24)

There are eight MLB games tonight and not many good pitchers on the mound. As a result, there is a lot of ownership coming into the few pitchers who do project well, and ownership is spread out among offenses since there are so many good bats to choose from.

Looking for more MLB DFS advice? Check out Stokastic’s MLB articles and tools, including industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for Stokastic’s MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.

React App

MLB DFS Advice: Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto | July 24

Game of the Day: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

This game only has an eight-run total, but it features two of the top-projected pitchers against two offenses with plenty of power.

Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Mariners, and the Twins will counter with Kenta Maeda. Castillo has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate this season at 27.7%, while Maeda leads the slate at 28.6%. Both offenses offer strikeout upside as well, with the Twins active roster striking out 28.3% of the time against right-handed pitching this year and the Mariners’ active roster striking out 24.9% of the time. Castillo’s 25.6% top-2 pitcher percentage is the second highest in the Top Pitchers Tool, while Maeda’s 21.1% top-2 pitcher percentage is fourth. They are third and fourth in ownership, respectively, as well.

While both pitchers are good and both offenses strike out frequently, both offenses also have plenty of power. Minnesota’s active roster has a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching, while the Mariners active roster has a .165 ISO. Both teams are also very inexpensive. Minnesota is first in top value percentage in the Top Stacks Tool, and the Mariners are second. Both pitchers have surrendered some power this season as well. Castillo has allowed a .224 xISO to lefties, while Maeda has allowed a .209 xISO to righties. Since the start of last year, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach all have an xISO above .165 against right-handed pitching. On the other side, since the start of last season, Julio Rodriguez has a .194 xISO, Eugenio Suarez has a .234 xISO and Teoscar Hernandez has a .218 xISO against right-handed pitching.

Given the lack of good pitchers elsewhere on this slate and the inexpensive bats in this game, it is difficult to envision a scenario where something from this game does not end up being a key piece to tonight’s winning lineups.

Latest MLB DFS Content

MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters

Juan Soto (SDP): $5,500 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel

Willy Adames (MIL): $4,600 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel

Corbin Carroll (ARI): $6,000 on DraftKings, $4,100 on FanDuel

For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!

Juan Soto: Soto will face Pirates rookie right-handed Quinn Priester in Priester’s second major league appearance. Priester had a good ground ball rate in the minors but does not strike out a lot of hitters. He projects to be a below-average pitcher in the majors at this point in his young career. Soto started the season off slowly, but he now has a .426 wOBA and .286 ISO against right-handed pitching. These numbers are backed up by a .421 xwOBA and .263 xISO.

Willy Adames: Adames faces Graham Ashcraft tonight in Milwaukee. Ashcraft has been good at limiting power this year, but he has had more trouble against righties than lefties. His reliance on a cut fastball as his primary pitch means that it is reasonable to expect his reverse splits to continue, as it is a pitch that is typically more effective against opposite-handed hitters. Lefties have produced a .333 wOBA and .126 ISO against the pitch this season, while righties have a .425 wOBA and .191 ISO. Adames only has a .298 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against righties this year, but he has still produced power with a .202 ISO and .208 xISO.

Corbin Carroll: Carroll gets the best matchup in baseball as Adam Wainwright returns from the injured list. Wainwright has been unbelievably bad this season, striking out 11% of hitters and posting a 5.87 xFIP. Lefties have produced a .485 wOBA, .327 ISO, .469 xwOBA and .304 xISO against the 41-year-old right-hander. It is possible that Wainwright really was dealing with a shoulder injury, and he will now be a below-average pitcher but a better pitcher than he has been this season. There is also a good chance, however, that Wainwright’s illustrious career is simply at its end and hitters will continue to produce extraordinary results against him until the Cardinals convince him to retire.

MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers

Yu Darvish (SDP): $9,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel

Luis Castillo (SEA): $10,600 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel

Logan Allen (CLE): $8,700 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel

For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!

Yu Darvish: Darvish is the top pitching option on tonight’s slate, as he offers the best combination of talent, matchup and salary. He has struck out 25.9% of hitters this year and has a 3.76 xFIP, and he faces a below-average Pittsburgh offense in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Darvish does have substantial reverse splits this season, striking out 29.8% of lefties and allowing a .283 xwOBA compared to 21% of righties and a .311 wOBA allowed. Pittsburgh does not have many good right-handed hitters, however, as Andrew McCutchen and Henry Davis are the only two above-average righties in the projected lineup.

Luis Castillo: Castillo is more expensive than Darvish, which moves him behind the Padres right-hander in tonight’s rankings. He is still a top option, however, as he has struck out 27.7% of hitters and has a 3.65 xFIP. As mentioned in the Game of the Day section, the Twins active roster has the highest strikeout percentage in baseball. It also has plenty of left-handed power, which has been Castillo’s weakness this season, but that is not enough to keep Castillo from projecting as one of the best options on a weak pitching slate.

Logan Allen: Allen’s salary has increased after a dominant start against the Pirates his last time out. Allen is having a strong rookie season, striking out 24.3% of hitters and posting a 3.94 xFIP. He has a favorable matchup against the Royals, whose active roster has a 96 wRC+ (27th in baseball) and a 23.4% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. While it is a good matchup and Allen is a good pitcher, there is one big concern: Allen has been very inefficient with his pitches this season, which has limited how deep he can go into games. In addition, he only threw 77 pitches in his last start despite a dominant performance. As his salary increases, his pitch count/innings concerns become more important. Given the lack of talent on this slate, however, he still looks like one of the best options. The innings concerns are more important on FanDuel because of the quality start bonus.

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].