There are only five games tonight, but the Dodgers are still in Coors Field with an implied run total over seven. They are actually projected to be under-owned tonight, with a 32% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 22% ownership share in the Top Stacks tool.
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MLB DFS Advice Today: Last Day of Dodgers at Coors | June 29
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Thankfully, this is the final game of this series because it is getting boring to talk about. Los Angeles has a 7.1 implied run total tonight against Chase Anderson, and unlike the last two days, there are only five games on the slate, so it will be more difficult to find contrarian plays to pair with the Dodgers. Anderson enters the game with a 15.7% strikeout percentage and 5.18 xFIP. He has allowed a .202 xISO and .368 xwOBA to righties, along with a .187 xISO and .362 xwOBA to lefties. Every hitter in the projected lineup is at least 12% owned in Stokastic’s MLB DFS ownership projections, but Mookie Betts is the most popular at 22%. The relatively flat ownership is somewhat surprising since Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout get 47%and 38% ownership, respectively, on a short Coors slate last week, but it does make the Dodgers look more appealing as a stack since the ownership is manageable.
One part of this game that is new and interesting is Emmet Sheehan. The focus has been all on the Dodgers bats, but Sheehan is projected for 25% ownership at $7,400 on DraftKings. He is actually expected to be the highest-owned player on the Dodgers at the moment. It is always risky to roster a pitcher in Colorado, but there are not many better options in his price range. The Rockies’ 4.9 implied run total is actually lower than the Phillies, who face a similarly priced Kyle Hendricks, and is about the same as the Astros, who face a $6,500 Adam Wainwright. The Mets also have a 4.9 implied run total against $6,900 Adrian Houser.
One final note is to be sure to check back closer to lock for updated ownership because it would not be surprising to see the best hitters on the Dodgers projected for more ownership later on in the day, and that could end up changing strategy.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,300 on DraftKings
Kyle Tucker (HOU): $5,000 on DraftKings
Francisco Lindor (NYM): $4,500 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Mookie Betts: Betts is one of many Dodgers bats that stands out again tonight. He is at the top of the list because of his positional eligibility that allows easily fitting him into lineups at second base or in the outfield. Anderson has historically struggled with right-handed power, as his best pitch is his changeup and it does not play as well against righties as it does lefties. Anderson’s two most utilized pitches to right-handed hitters this season are his four-seam fastball and his cutter. Betts has a .220 xISO in at-bats that have ended on a right-handed fastball and a .213 xISO in at-bats that have ended on a right-handed cutter since the start of last year. As a reminder, most of the other Los Angeles hitters are top hitting plays as well.
Kyle Tucker: Tucker’s numbers this season are not as good as one would typically expect, as he has only produced a .318 wOBA and .160 ISO against right-handed pitching. His expected numbers are better, however, with a .373 xwOBA and .231 xISO, which suggests that he has had at least some bad luck. He will face Wainwright tonight, who has been about as bad as a pitcher can be against left-handed hitters this year. Wainwright has a 9.9% strikeout percentage against lefties and has allowed a .279 xISO and .450 xwOBA this season. One negative for Tucker is that Busch Stadium is the second-worst park for left-handed home runs over the last three years, but all in all, it is a nice matchup for him.
Francisco Lindor: Lindor takes on Houser and the Brewers tonight in New York. Houser has done a good job of limiting power this season, with a .139 xISO to left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .358 xwOBA as well, however, so there is some production to be had. Lindor is relatively inexpensive at $4,500, and Stokastic gives him a 13.3% chance of being the top scoring shortstop and a 9.2% chance of being the best point-per-dollar shortstop on the DraftKings main slate in Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Max Scherzer (NYM): $11,000 on DraftKings
Chris Bassitt (TOR): $9,600 on DraftKings
Emmett Sheehan (LAD): $7,400 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Max Scherzer: Scherzer has struck out 26.2% of hitters this year and has a 3.98 xFIP, and he has a favorable matchup tonight against Milwaukee. The Brewers active roster has a 24.3% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, and it has also been below average in terms of production, with a 92 wRC+. Additionally, it gets a negative park shift tonight facing Scherzer in Citi Field.
Chris Bassitt: Bassitt has a really dangerous matchup tonight against the Giants, and the only reason he is listed here is a lack of alternatives. The Giants are likely to have a predominantly left-handed lineup, and they are getting a positive park shift facing Bassitt in the Rogers Centre. Bassitt has struggled overall this year and has a 20.5% strikeout percentage and 4.64 xFIP, but his real weakness has been left-handed bats. Lefties have a .256 xISO and .385 xwOBA against him. San Francisco’s active roster does have a 23.3% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching, but it also has a 115 wRC+. Bassitt has the second-best chance to be a top-2 scoring pitcher on the slate at 27.3%, but that is mostly because there are not many good pitchers on the slate. If playing multiple lineups, this is a great spot to have plenty of exposure to both sides.
Emmet Sheehan: This is another spot to get exposure to both sides if playing multiple lineups. Sheehan has a good matchup against the Rockies, but the game is in Coors Field, which always makes things dangerous. Sheehan struck out 41.7% of hitters at Double-A this season, but the strikeout stuff has not carried over to the major leagues through his first two starts. He projects for a 22% to 23% strikeout percentage over the rest of the year, compared to his 16.7% strikeout percentage through his first 12 innings, so he is likely to improve going forward.
