There are eight MLB games tonight, and none of them are in Coors Field, so ownership should be spread out across a lot of offenses. There are plenty of talented pitchers to choose from, but many of them are in difficult spots, so there is some risk. Overall, it should be a fun slate to play, as there are a variety of approaches to take.
Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice: Elly De La Cruz’s Upside | July 19
Game of the Day: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
There is not a game in Coors Field tonight, but there is one at Great American Ballpark. It has the third-highest park factor over the last three seasons, trailing only Coors Field and Fenway Park, and the highest home run park factor. On top of the generally great hitting environment, it is also about 85 degrees in Cincinnati tonight, so that ball should fly. Neither pitcher is particularly good, so this game is likely to play a big role in tonight’s DFS contests.
San Francisco is underpriced in its matchup against Graham Ashcraft. The most expensive hitter in the projected lineup is Joc Pederson at $4,400 on DraftKings. J.D. Davis is $4,100, and everyone else is sub-$4,000. Ashcraft throws hard but has not turned that ability into strikeouts in his career. This season, he has struck out 15.9% of hitters and has a 4.84 xFIP while allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings. Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol have xISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching, while Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores and Davis check in at .179, .186 and .154, respectively. LaMonte Wade Jr. left last night’s game early with a hamstring injury, so the expectation is that he will miss tonight’s game, but he also has a .215 xISO this year. There is plenty of power in this lineup, and the Giants are getting a massive park upgrade from San Francisco. They have the highest Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool thanks to a 12.4% chance of being the top stack and a 17.3% chance of being the best value stack.
The Reds are more expensive than the Giants, but they also offer plenty of upside. Cincinnati only ranks 12th in Stack Score because they are so expensive, but they have the third-best chance of being the top scoring stack behind the Braves and Giants. They will face Ross Stripling, who has given up plenty of power this season. Right-handed hitters have a .246 xISO against Stripling while lefties have a .192 xISO. Elly De La Cruz is leading off at $6,400 on DraftKings. While that is an overpay from a median projection standpoint, he offers slate-breaking upside thanks to his combination of speed and power. The middle of the order is relatively expensive as well, but look to Christian Encarnacion-Strand at $2,500 to offset some of that salary and get plenty of upside. Encarnacion-Strand produced a .306 ISO at Triple-A this season and projects for an ISO between .180 and .230 over the rest of the year, depending on the projection model.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Matt Olson (ATL): $6,200 on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel
Joc Pederson (SFG): $4,400 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (TOR): $5,400 on DraftKings, $3,500 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Matt Olson: Olson leads the Top Batters Tool with a 39.8% chance of hitting a home run tonight as the Braves take on Ryne Nelson in Atlanta. Nelson has allowed a .210 xISO and .353 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Olson has a ridiculous .423 wOBA and .352 ISO in 315 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and it is backed up by a .409 xwOBA and .326 xISO. Truist Park has been the seventh-best park for left-handed home runs over the last three years as well.
Joc Pederson: There are plenty of Giants to choose from, as mentioned in the Game of the Day section. Pederson stands out at the top of the list, however. He has a .398 xwOBA in addition to his .260 xISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has also produced a .377 xwOBA and .213 xISO in 72 plate appearances that have ended on a right-handed cutter since the start of 2021. Ashcraft has thrown his cutter 61% of the time to left-handed hitters this year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Guerrero has a relatively difficult matchup against Yu Darvish, but Darvish has had some issues with right-handed power this season. He has allowed a .174 xISO to righties while striking out just 21.4% compared to a .106 xISO and 29.1% strikeout percentage against lefties. Guerrero has a .398 xwOBA and .255 xISO against right-handed pitching this year.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Luis Castillo (SEA): $9,300 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Carlos Rodon (CWS): $8,500 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Justin Verlander (NYM): $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Luis Castillo: Castillo is the latest Seattle pitcher to grade out as the top pitcher on the slate, and hopefully he will fare better than Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo did before him. Castillo leads the slate with a 26.9% strikeout percentage, and he has a 3.73 xFIP as well. T-Mobile Park has the lowest park factor in baseball over the last three seasons, and Minnesota’s active roster has a 28.1% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year.
Carlos Rodon: Rodon is making his third start of the season for the Yankees, and he should be able to handle close to a full workload after throwing 88 pitches his last time out. He has a dangerous matchup against an Angels team that has plenty of power in a favorable hitter’s park, but his inexpensive salary offsets those risks. Since the start of last year, Rodon has struck out 31.9% of righties and 35.2% of lefties while holding righties to a .257 xwOBA and lefties to a .269 xwOBA.
Justin Verlander: The third spot could have gone to a number of different options, including Charlie Morton and Darvish, but Verlander has a favorable matchup against the White Sox in the second-most pitcher-friendly park over the last three seasons. Verlander has only struck out 20.2% of hitters this year and has a 4.57 xFIP, but those numbers are likely to improve by the end of the season based on Verlander’s performance the last few years. Most publicly available projection systems expect about a 25% strikeout percentage going forward. Chicago’s active roster has just a 91 wRC+ with a 23% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
