Sunday’s featured tournaments will be underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, RHPs Freddy Peralta and Zach Eflin are the aces of the afternoon, with the Oakland Athletics offense in a promising spot against RHP Trevor Williams.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta at Chicago White Sox — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,700 | Yahoo $48
Why yes, this is the third consecutive day we will be targeting a Milwaukee starting pitcher against the hospitable Chicago offense. While the White Sox did rough up RHP Corbin Burnes on Friday, RHP Brandon Woodruff lined them up and set them down last night, allowing just two runs on the way to a 3-2 victory.
After a rough start against the Atlanta All-Star lineup, RHP Freddy Peralta has been outstanding over his last three starts. During this stretch, spanning 19 innings, he has a pair of wins, accompanied by an absurd 33 strikeouts in 19 innings. Yes, this was against inferior competition in the Reds and Rockies at home and the Nationals in Washington, but the ChiSox are not much better than those squads.
If Peralta is able to neutralize Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert Jr., he should be in line for his fourth quality start in his last five tilts. Getting the win may be asking for too much, however, since the Brewers bats may not be able to gain much traction against RHP Dylan Cease.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Zach Eflin vs. Cleveland Guardians — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $43
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool typically would have given the edge to RHP Gerrit Cole in Miami for this nomination, but with Cleveland’s best hitter Jose Ramirez serving the second game of his suspension for fighting with Tim Anderson, the nod goes to RHP Zach Eflin at home in pitching-friendly Tropicana Field.
Once against the Tampa Bay Rays have worked their magic by bringing in a pitcher from another organization, tweaking his mechanics and reaping the rewards. Eflin was a solid contributor over his last five seasons in Philadelphia, but this year he is enjoying a career-best 3.34 ERA and 2.92 FIP while leading all qualified starters with a 0.974 WHIP. Today he should set a career mark with his next strikeout, and with a little luck, he should see a personal best for innings as well.
Bringing in Kole Calhoun, Ramon Laureano and Brayan Rocchio as the main bats replacing Ramirez, Amed Rosario and Josh Bell (the latter two were traded), and with Josh Naylor (oblique) on the injured list, there are a lot more strikeouts than what we typically see from the Guardians. The projected lineup has a 22.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons, and while that is right around league average, it is a big increase over what we typically see.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Julio Urias vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $41
After two days of right-handed starters, the Rockies will be closing out their Los Angeles series the way they started, against a Los Angeles lefty. After a hiccup in Baltimore where LHP Julio Urias allowed eight runs on just 10 baserunners, he has settled down nicely with just three earned runs in his last three appearances. Though his 14-inning scoreless streak may end this afternoon, this is another day to pick on the Colorado offense.
The projected lineup for the Rockies has a 27.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change. During this same timeframe, Urias has a 23.7% combined strikeout rate, though he has allowed a .170 ISO. Fortunately, Colorado does not travel well with lumber, and the Rockies projected lineup has a paltry .110 ISO against lefties over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are -375 favorites to garner the victory this afternoon, so with a little luck that will be awarded to Urias, along with a quality start.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Oakland Athletics at RHP Trevor Williams — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
It is not often that we get to recommend the Oakland offense; however, the Stokastic Top Stack Tool has several of the Athletics rating out well from a point-per-dollar perspective. While making a full stack of the A’s does seem a bit overboard, looking to them as a secondary stack as duos and trios is a reasonable strategy that will afford extra resources to be earmarked for pitching and a premium stack.
This is the fourth team for RHP Trevor Williams in the last four seasons, and the journeyman’s best attribute is taking the ball every time his turn comes up in the rotation. Home runs have been an issue, with the 31-year-old ceding multiple round-trippers in seven of his 23 starts. Things have been particularly fruitful for opposing offenses in his last eight outings, with the venerable veteran allowing a 6.75 ERA, 6.80 xERA and a .331 batting average against. Essentially, this makes every team he faces look like they are filled with contenders for the batting title as well as the home run crown.
Seth Brown, JJ Bleday and Jordan Diaz have the most power upside, with Zach Gelof helping fill out a middle infield slot and Shea Langeliers doing the same on DraftKings ($3,100) and Yahoo ($9) as a punt catcher. Again, to be clear, this is not a recommendation for a primary full stack but instead liberally sprinkle these discount dandies across your tournament lineups as pair and threesomes who can provide access to the more tantalizing options on the docket.
Afternoon Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Chase Silseth — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
It feels like RHP Chase Silseth is on borrowed time, as he has been fortuitous in his three starts since moving into the rotation. During this stretch against the Mariners and Yankees and in Atlanta, he has ceded all four of his earned runs via round-trippers, which has resulted in a 2.04 ERA, but a 3.78 FIP. He also has an impressive 26 strikeouts in these 17.2 innings, with only three walks.
The 23-year-old was used mostly as a multi-inning reliever this spring before being sent back down to Triple-A to stretch out as a starter. While with the Salt Lake Bees, he revamped his slider and gave up on his cutter, which seems to be paying off. However, Houston will now have three games worth of video to review, so the element of surprise may be lost. Last year in seven starts, Silseth had a low 7.5 strikeouts and high 2.2 home runs per nine innings on his way to a 6.59 ERA and 6.61 xERA. Though the truth likely is between these two data points, siding with Houston today seems like a savvy strategy.
The Astros have plenty of power, and their projected lineup has a .190 ISO against right-handed pitching dating back to the start of last year. Look to the top six, with the preferred order of preference being Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and then catcher Yainer Diaz. This sixth option, if Diaz is in the lineup, will be either Jeremy Pena or Chas McCormick, though sadly neither has done much with their speed on the basepaths over the last month.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Kyle Freeland — 6.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
While LHP Kyle Freeland is “better on the road,” that is true of most Colorado pitchers. In Freeland’s last three road games, he has allowed four home runs while striking out seven hitters across 18.2 innings. Doing some quick math, that means he strikes out less than one hitter every other inning. If Mookie Betts (illness) is feeling better, the projected Los Angeles lineup is quite familiar with Freeland, and they have nearly 140 at-bats against him. J.D. Martinez (leg) is hopeful to return to action this afternoon after missing a week and he too profiles well against southpaws.
Max Muncy (.214 ISO, 270 plate appearances) and Freddie Freeman (.249 ISO, 367 PAs) both are elite in same-handed matchups, and Freeland (.184 ISO, 291 PAs) struggles against fellow lefties. Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and Amed Rosario are the differentiation plays towards the bottom of the order, and, of course, catcher Will Smith is the perfect player to use on DraftKings and Yahoo to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight Atlanta is in New York closing out the weekend series against the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. Jeff McNeil is the longest of long shots in the sports wagering market to knock one out of the park, but there is upside with this wager.
We can see from the True Odds feature on OddsShopper that his +1000 line to hit a home run tonight is outpacing his +950 “true odds,” which gives bettors almost a 5% expected value for the current wager. McNeil has just five home runs on the season, but two have come in his last eight games, and over the last 30 days he has a .180 ISO against opposite-handed hurlers. Tonight it will be RHP Yonny Chirinos taking the mound, and he allowed four longballs in his last appearance, and this season he has allowed a career-worst 1.65 per nine innings.
The thought here is that McNeil is likely to be a hitter Chirinos goes after, rather than Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo or Daniel Vogelbach. We just need one mistake pitch for McNeil to turn on, and while this is a lottery ticket, it is worth putting a couple ducats on a ticket for some extra entertainment value as the weekend wraps up.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, August 13 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather should not be an issue today, as there is very little precipitation in the forecast and most venues are looking at warm to hot temperatures.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 12:30 p.m. ET, brought to you by BetMGM. New users sign up through this link and receive 30 FREE days of Stokastic+ Platinum and a first bet “Second Chance” if it loses, up to $1,000. Full details here.
