Saturday has a robust 10-game afternoon slate locking at 4:05 p.m. ET, followed up by a four-game featured slate with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. And as always, Stokastic tools are a great help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Pablo Lopez at Detroit Tigers — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $45
It has been several days since the Detroit offense was picked on in this article series, but sometimes we just have to go back to the oldies. The Tigers have clawed their way up to an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and while is it still the worst in the league, at least they are no longer a lap behind the field.
Though RHP Pablo Lopez has struggled over his last seven games with a 5.53 ERA, his 3.79 FIP indicates there has been some bad luck and he still struck out 48 across these 40.2 innings. Three times he managed to record nine strikeouts in this stretch, which is actually impressive considering the gauntlet of teams he has faced including road matchup against both Los Angeles squads and Tampa Bay, with home games against Boston and Toronto. Lopez will be wildly popular with only eight options in the player pool, so his supporters will need to find differentiation at other positions.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron vs. Washington Nationals — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings n/a | FanDuel n/a | Yahoo n/a
Fingers-crossed that at least one of the three main DFS sites adds RHP Matt Waldron to the player pool for his debut in The Show. There will be a ton of chatter of how he is the first non-position player to throw the knuckle ball in a game since 2021. It should not get lost in the shuffle that Waldron does rely on the pitch, but still spreads things out relatively evenly across his fastball, sinker and slider in addition to everyone’s favorite pitch. H/t to Jon Anderson on Twitter for highlighting this pitch mix in a viewer-friendly format. Per an interview quote, Waldron estimated he leaned on this unique pitch around 60% of the time in Double-A last year.
It will be fun to see how the Stokastic Top Pitcher Tool, handles this baseball unicorn, so again we have to hope Waldron slides into the player list later today. Waldron was an 18th-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft after playing four seasons for the University of Nebraska. In high school, Waldron led Westside High in Omaha to three Class A state titles, including capping off the 2015 championship game with a no-hitter, with 12 strikeouts. Yes, Nebraska is a sparsely populated state with around 370 high schools and only a dozen have 1,500 or more students in grades 9-12, including Westside High School. Still, it is a fun story nonetheless.
Washington is a bottom-five team against right-handed pitching this season with a 91 wRC+, with few strikeouts (18.5%), walks (5.8%) and very little power (.135 ISO). Waldron will be quite the departure from Friday’s starter RHP Joe Musgrove.
This is going to be a “both-sideser” as Waldron has scuffled across his four minor league campaigns. In 136 innings at Triple-A, he has a 7.74 ERA and just under a strikeout per inning. The thesis for playing him if he ends up as a potential selection, is a likely low salary and a unique pitch that hitters rarely see. The hope is a “lightening in a bottle” moment, with five innings and only a couple of earned runs, along with a cheap win.
For the Nationals, focus on their best hitters – which of course is a relative term. The competent options include Joey Meneses who leads the team with a .291 average, Lane Thomas who leads the team with 12 home runs, 37 RBI and 84 hits as well as glove-man Luis Garcia and veteran Jeimer Candelario.
One last bit of fun, per the MLB rules, every team gets at least one All-Star representative. Considering the aforementioned hitters – does that mean LHP MacKenzie Gore is the most likely candidate for the Mid-Summer Classic?
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Lance Lynn vs. Boston Red Sox — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $36
Top honors for the afternoon slate MLB DFS picks are a tossup between RHP Lance Lynn and LHP James Paxton who are squaring off in Chicago. Ultimately the discount from The Big Maple has Lynn as the preferred option. Yes, it also helps that Lynn is coming off a 16-strikeout game with an absurd 33 swings and misses, both league highs for this season. While Lynn did log 114 pitches, he is a workhorse and that was his eighth game with at least 100 pitches. He has tallied at least 96 in seven of the other eight appearances.
This is far from an easy matchup as the Red Sox have been just above league average this season with a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Rafael Devers, Matsataka Yoshida and to a lesser extent Triston Casas are the batters to worry about as they have elite power from the left-side of the plate. The salary savings is helpful, particularly on DraftKings and Yahoo, though it is not as much of a driving factor on FanDuel where we can only roster one pitcher and it is often times better to pivot away from the most popular options in large field tournaments for differentiation.
Early Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jose Berrios vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $42
The matchup is about as good as it gets for RHP Jose Berrios, with Oakland striking out 24.5% of the time against right-handed pitchers this season with a woeful .133 ISO that is the fourth-lowest in the league. Even better, the projected lineup has five players who have struck out 30% or more of the time against righties this season.
So, what is the catch? Well, for me it is seemingly being forever snake bitten by the performances of Berrios back to his days in Minnesota. Of course this is a flawed bias, particularly when looking at this year, considering he has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 starts. Over the last two campaigns, he is a tick below eight strikeouts per nine innings, with 2.45 walks per nine which is below his career average, albeit with 1.31 home runs per nine, which is subpar.
For those looking for a little more safety, RHP Merrill Kelly has a nice matchup in San Francisco against the Giants, though he is commanding a salary premium across the board in comparison to Berrios. Paxton would also be another option for this wild slate with all 10 games starting almost simultaneously.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Ronel Blanco — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Clearly the Coors Field Extravaganza — with a run total pushing 13 — is the primary source of offense tonight. That said, there are a couple of fine alternative paths to take in tournaments for the savvy gamer. Last Sunday, RHP Ronel Blanco was a featured pitching option as a price play. Less than a week later we are actively targeting him with the Dodgers, who should be getting Max Muncy (hamstring) back this weekend.
Across his three starts, Blanco has been serviceable as a real-life pitcher with a 4.76 ERA and 15 strikeouts across 17 innings. Tonight marks just the 20th career appearance in The Show for the 29-year-old and Los Angeles is a tough opponent for even the top aces of the league. The top of the lineup features a pair of former MVPs in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who are going to be underrepresented in tournaments on DraftKings and Yahoo with salaries that rival those of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in Coors Field.
Fortunately, David Peralta and James Outman can be had for a song, along with the platoon-advantage, which is helpful in averaging down the per player cost of full-stacks. Will Smith is always a great option at catcher and tonight with his ridiculous $5,700 salary on DraftKings, few gamers are projected to land on his name. J.D. Martinez is the other key option, along with Muncy if he is able to return to action.
Main Slate Secondary Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Josiah Gray — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has both the Padres and the Twins as potential pivots away from the Angels and Rockies, though the elevated salaries for the Friars should keep their popularity in check. Tonight San Diego will be facing RHP Josiah Gray who is backsliding into his old bad habits, with three multi-home run games in his last four tilts. The 25-year-old has seen his ERA increase by almost a full run with these sketchy appearances and the road to glory tonight will be fraught with danger.
The Padres popped off for 13 runs on Friday with every starter except for Manny Machado and catcher Gary Sanchez notching at least one hit, though this duo did each contribute by scoring. Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto will be the power trio to target, with Xander Bogaerts and Sanchez used to fill out four-man stacks. Ha-Seong Kim is likely to fall down the order after leading off against a lefty last night, but this also means there is a good chance that a discounted Matt Carpenter will be in the lineup, which is particularly helpful on DraftKings with his multi-position eligibility at both corner positions.
Afternoon Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Graham Ashcraft — 6.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Fire up the Atlanta bats with this ballpark upgrade and a matchup against RHP Graham Ashcraft, who would make the Grand Canyon seem cozy for opposing hitters. In four of his last seven appearances, Ashcraft has allowed at least seven runs. Across these 29 innings, he has a 12.72 ERA, a 7.02 FIP and a 5.25 xFIP, with 2.5 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings. There is no perfuming this pig. Ashcraft missed the last two weeks with a calf issue and he did not make any minor league rehabilitation starts.
This is easy. Pretty much everyone in an Atlanta uniform, up to and including the bat boy is in play this afternoon.
Afternoon Slate Secondary Target: Cincinnati Reds vs. LHP Jared Shuster — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The Reds are currently on a 12-game winning streak and rookie Elly De La Cruz hit for the cycle on Friday in just his 15th career game. LHP Jared Shuster has allowed only two home runs, but he does not have the strikeout upside (23 in 41.1 innings) to get himself out of trouble. Walks are also a concern with him handing out a free pass every other inning so far this season. Look to the righties today with Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Spencer Steer completing the core four with De La Cruz. Nick Senzel has above average pop against southpaws, so he can be feathered in for differentiation.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
In addition to being one of the worrisome lefties facing Lynn as referenced above, Triston Casas is someone to consider in the sports wagering market for his home run prop.
Keep in mind that home runs props are rather fickle, but dropping a couple of bucks on one every now and then is a fun source of entertainment. Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that Casas stands out, with his +410 odds of recording a round-tripper and a “true odds” probability of +341, which indicates that this line is inefficient by nearly 15%.
Since the beginning of last year, Casas has a .204 ISO in 277 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitching, along with 12 of his 13 longballs during this timeframe.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, June 24 | MLB DFS Picks
Similar to Friday, Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia are seeing the trailing remnants of the same weather pattern. Fortunately nothing more risky than an in-game delay.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, at 11:00 a.m. ET, brought to you by Underdog — new users a first deposit match up to $100 by clicking through this link.
