Wednesday brings Game 2 for the MLB Wild Card Round, taking form as a four-game featured slate locking at 3:08 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Zac Gallen and Freddy Peralta as today’s primary pitching recommendations, along with the Tampa Bay Rays at home against struggling veteran RHP Nathan Eovaldi.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Oct. 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Wild Card Round Primary Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen at Milwaukee Brewers — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:00 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $38
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Zac Gallen rated out as a potentially overlooked option against the Brewers in Milwaukee on Wednesday evening. It is hard to consider a pitcher on a short-slate like this as overlooked, so perhaps “underrepresented in tournaments” is a better turn of phrase. This is mostly a result of his salary being the highest on DraftKings and the second highest on FanDuel, among Wednesday’s options.
While the 28-year-old finished fifth in the National League Cy Young Award voting last year, this season he made his first All-Star Team. Though he did have a few bumpy starts down the stretch with four of his last seven games leading to at least four earned runs, he had a career best 210 innings and 220 strikeouts. IN his final two starts, he had 15 strikeouts, with just three walks and two earned runs in 12.1 combined innings against the Yankees and Astros.
Gallen has induced ground balls at a 44.3% clip over the last two seasons and is particularly effective against opposite-handed hitters with a 50.3% rate during this timeframe. Lefties did get to him for a career-worst .161 ISO, but he was also able to strike them out at a 25.6% clip. Christian Yelich and switch-hitter Carlos Santana are the main power-lefties and while it is never fun for pitchers to face Willy Adames, this will be a strength-vs-strength scenario when these right-handers square off.
Wild Card Round Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $47
It should be RHP Freddy Peralta starting Game 2, with RHP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) out for at least this round and potentially the entire playoffs if Milwaukee continues to advance. Peralta had another solid season and while it was not of the same quality as his 2021 All-Star campaign, it was his fourth consecutive season with a sub-4.00 ERA and his strikeouts per nine innings rebounded from 9.9 last year to 11.4 this year, which is just a tick shy of his career rate.
From his final appearance in July, through the end of the season, Peralta made 11starts, allowing more than three runs only once, in his last appearance of the regular season when the Marlins got to him in Miami for four runs. In four of these appearances he had double-digit strikeouts and that is why he is worthy of our attention today.
Over the last 30 days, Arizona averaged 4.25 runs per g
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Wild Card Round Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET
Okay, okay – so the recommendation of the Rays did not work out yesterday. So maybe promoting them to the primary target will inspire them to actually score a run against Texas. On tap is a date with RHP Nathan Eovaldi, who has been in the league for nearly as long as DFS has been popular. The 33-year-old has dealt with injuries the last couple of seasons and he struggled in September after a strained forearm cost him half of July and all of August.
In his six outings after being activated from the injured list and skipping a stint in the minors, Eovaldi was gobsmacked with 21 runs and seven home runs allowed in 20.1 innings. He did have 21 strikeouts and built himself up to 80 or more pitches in each of his last three starts. Eovaldi has six postseason starts to his credit and five other relief appearances, all during his time with the Red Sox in 2018 and 2021.
Yandy Diaz, Rand Arozarena and Isaac Paredes are the trio to target in this matchup. Jose Siri has light-tower power and makes for a fine differentiation option from the bottom of the order. Josh Lowe should also be in the lineup after coming off the bench Tuesday, with lefty Jordan Montgomery on the bump. The 25-year-old has 20 home runs this season, with 18 coming at the expense of right-handed pitchers.
Wild Card Round Secondary Target: Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Jose Berrios — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET
The Twins are an interesting option in the Stokastic Top Stacks tool as they take on old friend RHP Jose Berrios. Even with all of his rollercoaster outings, at the end of every season, Berrios still ends up with excellent numbers. Last year was the only season where he had at least 20 appearances and did not finish with a 3.90 ERA or better. He is still capable of producing around a strikeout per inning – but always lurking under the surface is the potential for a meltdown.
Across his final nine starts, Berrios was tagged for two homers on four separate occasions, with more than seven strikeouts just three times. Royce Lewis has had a phenomenal rookie season and he added to that legend yesterday, accounting for all three Minnesota runs, with a pair of round-trippers. Even with Byron Buxton out and the disappearance and finally an injury sidelining Joey Gallo, the Twins continue to be a pesky lineup.
Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff and Michael A. Taylor are far from household names, but they grind out every at bat and maximize their opportunities. Carlos Correa and switch-hitting Jorge Polanco are the marquee bats and Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien have been excellent contributors all season. There are no easy outs in this lineup and that is the recipe for success against Berrios.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Jonah Heim is worthy of our attention in the sports wagering market for his home run prop. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that the switch-hitting catcher for the Rangers has +640 “true odds” of taking one out of the park, and the +750 odds currently available are indicative of a line that is inefficient by over 10%.
This season RHP Zach Eflin has allowed 19 home runs, with a nearly uniform distribution of 10 to right-handed hitters and nine to opposite-handed batsmen. Heim has 18 home runs on the season, with 16 coming when he swings the stick from the left-side of the plate. Though this wager is far from a sure thing, on an extended time horizon, finding advantageous lines is the key to sustaining and growing bankrolls through a disciplined approach to the wagering process.
For those looking for something that will win more frequently, taking the under on 6.5 strikeouts for RHP Aaron Nola is a neutral bet at anything better than -150 odds. Over his final nine starts of the regular season, the 30-year-old veteran had seven or fewer strikeouts on six occasions.
Today he is projected for 5.7 strikeouts and there are more ways to land on the under such as ineffectiveness, a quick hook by his manager with a fresh bullpen at the ready, injury, etc. Plus the projected lineup for the Marlins has a reasonable 22.2 projected strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Final Thoughts for Wednesday, October 4 | MLB DFS Picks
Once more, there are no weather issues to worry about today, with Minnesota and Philadelphia hosting the only two outdoor games. Keep in mind that playoff baseball is a fickle DFS sport. All of the offenses are good, and so are the pitchers. Plus, teams have fully rested bullpens and can also turn to back-of-the-rotation starters as additional options. Road teams have added pressure in that they have to win two of the three games and do not get a respite or the opportunity to play in front of their own fans.
Additionally, over-correlating lineups can be a detriment, with all of the available arms. Do not be afraid to take a batter or two against your pitcher when searching for differentiation. It would be a surprise to see more than two or three pitchers close out the sixth inning today, which means hitters are going to get a couple looks at the bullpen. Plus, if it is your ace who allows a solo shot or two in an otherwise-pristine outing, there is not a lot of downside to also having them paired with the bat who does the limited damage.
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