College football Week 6 continues with a two-game Wednesday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 6 DFS picks and projections for Wednesday, Oct. 4.
CFB Week 6 DFS Picks and Projections | Wednesday, Oct. 4
Quarterback
Diego Pavia ($7,300): New Mexico State enters Week 6 as a six point favorite over Florida International in a game with a 49.5 total. The team ranks 128th in pace with a 42.5% pass rate. With that said, Diego Pavia provides excellent efficiency and rushing upside. He only averages 19.4 attempts per game, but 214.6 passing yards. On the ground, he already has 268 rushing yards. This makes him the top price-adjusted play at the position on the slate.
Nicholas Vattiato ($6,900): Middle Tennessee State enters Week 6 as a four-point favorite with a 51.5 total. However, Middle Tennessee ranks 41st in pace with a 57.1% pass rate. Nick Vattiato currently averages 37.8 pass attempts per game, but only 232 yards. It should be noted that Middle Tennessee State faced a rigorous non-conference schedule. He also has 139 rushing yards to date, giving him a solid rushing floor.
Logan Smothers ($7,100): Despite coming in as a four-point underdog, Jacksonville State ranks second in pace with a 37.2% pass rate. Logan Smothers only averages 19 attempts per game for 118.5 yards, but he already has 255 yards on the ground. This includes 31 designed rush attempts over the last two weeks.
Keyone Jenkins ($6,700): Now coming in as a six point underdog, FIU enters this game with the 70th ranked pace and a 45.2% pass rate. They moved to Keyone Jenkins under center, who has averaged 27.3 attempts per game for 250 yards. Jenkins also has some mobility with 53 yards on the ground. New Mexico State currently allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which is horrific.
Running Back
Malik Jackson ($6,900): With one of the highest rush rates in the country, Malik Jackson stands out as a solid price-adjusted play. Since the Ron Wiggins injury, Jackson has 34 carries and six targets in the pass game. He actually averages 3.4 targets per game, which ranks second on the team. Jacksonville State did return Anwar Lewis ($4,700) last week. Lewis led the team in rushing last year with 818 yards, so his involvement should be monitored. Last week, Lewis finished with four carries.
Frank Peasant ($5,400): Middle Tennessee State uses a two-back committee between Frank Peasant and Jaiden Credle, but both come in as solid price-adjusted plays. Another week removed from the injury, Peasant out-touched Credle 17-14. Credle did have seven targets, but both running backs account for just over 40% of the routes.
Star Thomas ($5,500): Star Thomas currently averages 10.6 touches per game and 44.8 rushing yards per game. In comparison, Jamoni Jones and Monte Watkins average 5.8 and 4.2 touches apiece. FIU currently allows 5.5 yards per carry to opposing backs. Thomas also handles the pass game role with 11 targets and a 41.5% route rate.
Shomari Lawrence ($6,200): FIU uses a little bit of hot hand at running back between Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens. Owens has actually out-touched Lawrence 17-15 over the last two weeks. However, Lawrence retains the pass catching role behind his 34% route rate.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions or CFB Week 6 DFS picks? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Elijah Metcalf ($6,000): The pass heaviest team on the slate, Middle Tennessee receivers should be prioritized here. Elijah Metcalf leads the team with 7.6 targets per game and 241 yards. He also has an elite 83.9% route share. Behind him, Holden Willis may have emerged as the clear WR2. His route rate jumped to 85.4% last week with DJ England-Chisolm coming in at 67%.
Kris Mitchell ($6,400): Despite moving towards a slightly more run-heavy offense under Jenkins, FIU uses Kris Mitchell as a pure alpha receiver. He averages 7.2 targets and 91.8 yards per game behind a 30.3% target share and an 89% route share. For reference, Jalen Bracey and Dean Patterson come in with 19.3% and 13.5% target shares. However, they have route rates of 63% and 66%.
Perry Carter ($4,000): Perry Carter leads Jacksonville State with 4.0 targets per game for 34 yards. This comes on a 17.5% target share and 59% route share. Carter’s price stands out more than his individual role. For those interested, here are the rest of the route rates. Quinton Lane (68.5%), Sean Brown (50.8%), Sterling Galban (60%), Michael Pettway (64.6%).
Kordell David ($3,500): New Mexico State continues to rotate receivers. Kordell David averages 2.4 targets per game for 7.8 yards. However, he leads the team with a 74.1% route participation. Comparatively, Jonathan Brady has an 63.7% route participation. Trent Hudson comes in at 51.5%. Chris Bellamy and Jordan Smith have route rates of 47.4% and 25.2%. No one on New Mexico State averages more than 3.2 targets per game, but Brady’s 252 receiving yards lap the field.
