Saturday has a consolidated set of games in two waves, with the featured-slate taking shape as a frontloaded eight-game affair with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHPs Kyle Bradish and Max Scherzer as top pitching options in all formats. One more, the Batters of Birdland are in a good spot in Camden Yards against visiting RHP Chris Flexen.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kyle Bradish vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $48
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Kyle Bradish as one of the better fantasy point per dollar options on the featured slate. In August, the second-year standout compiled a sterling 1.90 ERA, 0.928 WHIP and 27 strikeouts, across 23.2 innings of action. Baltimore won each of these games and is looking to add another one in the victory column tonight against Colorado.
The Rockies are a mess on the road, against right-handed pitchers and even over the last 30-days. No matter how the data is cut, this collection of hitters has bottom-three run creation expectations and they are in the bottom-quartile of the league when it comes to strikeouts as well. Bradish has done a fine job limiting power this season, ceding only a dozen longballs in 127.2 innings and he has allowed more than three runs on only two occasions. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Max Scherzer at Minnesota Twins — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $50
Salary is the key reasoning behind dropping RHPÂ Max Scherzer to the second recommended pitcher tonight as he is essentially priced for perfection. In his last outing, the 39-year-old was not able to neutralize the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. Though he did log 99 pitches, he still fell short of finishing the fourth inning, ending with a stat line of 3.2 innings, while allowing three runs on three hits and four walks. Most concerning was the paltry four strikeouts, but even an eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young Award winner is going to have off games.
The projected lineup for the Twins has a collective 23.8% strikeout rate over the last two seasons against right-handed pitching, with a middling .153 ISO. Byron Buxton is still on the injured list, which dramatically reduces the effectiveness of the Minnesota offense. Additionally, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda are all out as well. Though this does not appear to be an impactful group of bats, it does limit the overall depth of the day-to-day offense, which adds up over the MLB season.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. New York Yankees — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,400 | Yahoo $53
For the early slate, RHP Tyler Glasnow is at an apex salary, but it makes sense considering his strikeout upside and the old and injury riddled lineup put forth by the Yankees. Tampa Bay has seemingly put Glasnow on a one-a-week pitching limit, which does make sense considering that they have lost Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Shane Baz to injuries. The Rays have fallen three games behind the Orioles for the American League East division title, though they still have a five-game lead over the rest of the wild card contenders, so they should be able to stumble across the finish line in the postseason and they will need Glasnow intact if they get there.
Aaron Judge is far from a spring chicken in his age-31 season and Giancarlo Stanton (33), Kyle Higashioka (33) and DJ. LeMahieu (35) have even more days on the Earth. Plus injuries to Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and now Billy McKinney, have the Bronx Bombers as a shadow of their projected full-strength lineup. Harrison Bader and Oswaldo Peraza have no power to speak of and Everson Peireia has been pressed into outfield duty, with a grand total of four career at bats against right-handed pitching in The Show. Sorry Yankees fans, this is how the other half lives.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool is thrilled to know that RHPÂ Chris Flexen will be bringing Coors Field to Baltimore tonight in what should be a lopsided affair, favoring the home team. After being released by the Mariners, Flexen was scooped off the scrap heap by the Rockies. In five starts for he current team, he has three multi-home run affairs, with a 6.31 ERA, 6.85 FIP and a .324 batting average against in 25.2 innings, with just two of these tilts occurring in the thin Denver air.
The Orioles are a dream matchup against right-handed pitching, with switch-hitters Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and young shortstop Gunnar Henderson all possessing elite power against right-handed hurlers. Ryan Mountcastle has struggled this season, though after missing time with vertigo, he has been regaining his old form. Last year he was outstanding against same-handed pitching and he should be in the cleanup slot, unless he gives way to fellow first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, who has had a resurgent year.
Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Ramon Urias are fine differentiation plays from the bottom of the order. While we do not need to create full-stacks centered around this trio, they can be sprinkled across lineups tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Oakland Athletics at RHP Touki Toussaint — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Aside from young Zack Gelof who has been on a heater, the rest of the Athletics are at BOGO (buy one, get one) salaries in this matchup against RHP Touki Toussaint. Last night Oakland brought the lumber, putting a dozen runners across the plate, which represents 2.5% of the A’s total runs this season. Toussaint really should not be in the league and over his last four starts, he has 18 walks in 18.2 innings, with three multi-home run games and an 8.84 ERA, 2.085 WHIP. There is a silver lining in that he has 25 strikeouts, but otherwise he is throwing batting practice.
The focus should be anyone with power, which of course includes Gelof who has a .456 wOBA and a .387 ISO in his 103 plate appearances this season against right-handed pitching. With his lofty salary, he is going to be underrepresented in tournaments, making him a core piece of full-stacks. To be clear, we do not need to make full-stacks of the Athletics tonight, but they do feather in nicely at a variety of positions, which makes them the perfect complementary stack. Brent Rooker (.227 ISO, 269 PAs), Ryan Noda (.177 ISO, 288 PAs), Seth Brown (.222 ISO, 230 PAs) and catcher Shea Langoliers (.189 ISO, 277 PAs) are the key bats on the short list.
Early Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Jordan Lyles — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Game time temperatures should be in the low-80s to begin this 1 o’clock local start in Seattle. Thought T-Mobile Park is one of the least offensive friendly, the warmer temperatures do give a bit of a bump to bats. Even more important is the matchup against RHPÂ Jordan Lyles who continues to battle LHPÂ Patrick Corbin for the ingenious honor of most home runs allowed over the last three seasons.
In his last two appearances, Lyles has allowed half a dozen longballs, including four to the M’s in Kansas City 11 days ago. In his last four starts, he has averaged a strikeout every other inning, which has hampered his efforts to stay away from ceding crooked numbers. Over the last 30 days, Seattle is averaging 5.3 runs per game, which is the fifth most in the league and as a team they have a 135 wRC+ over this same timeframe, second to only the amazing Atlanta (142 wRC+) offense.
Like famed baseball philosophy Crash Davis once said “You have to respect the streak.” To the M’s credit, Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have been playing like All-Stars and the return of J.P. Crawford has helped lengthen the lineup. Veterans Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez can capitalize on the mistakes of opposing pitchers, plus the variable platoon-mix at the bottom of the order continues to be above average.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Saturday we can double down against RHP Touki Toussaint in the DFS world and with a sports bet. Currently in the sports wagering market, Toussaint has a 6.5 line for total strikeouts in his matchup at home against the visiting Oakland Athletics. That means, to reach the over, Toussaint will need to record seven strikeouts
Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -150 line for him to surpass this milestone is actually falling short of his expected -170 “true odds” of failing to clear this hurdle. That means this line is inefficient by nearly 5%, and with a 63% probability that the A’s chase him to the showers before he can reach this threshold, we have the makings of a “positive expected value” wager, which is the key to sustaining and even building bankrolls.
Toussaint has struck out nine opposing hitters in two of his last four appearances, but he has five or fewer in the other seven most recent starts. This includes one game where he had an “opener” take care of the first inning, before he worked 5.1 frames himself.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, August 26 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather looks good across the various venues, with no real postponement risks. Keep tabs on the East Coast, where we could see some humidity showers in Baltimore, Boston and New York, but these should be nothing more than a brief nuisance.
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