Sunday winds down the weekend, with the featured slate action locking at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHPs Justin Verlander and Jack Flaherty as top pitching options in all formats. The Baltimore and Toronto bats are well positioned for big numbers this afternoon in what should be a wild tournament environment.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander at Detroit Tigers — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $47
It has been a hot minute since RHP Justin Verlander was in a Tigers uniform, but he did make his debut in Detroit all the way back in 2005, which was long before DFS was a twinkle in anyone’s eye. Fast forward to this afternoon, and we are looking at a strong matchup for Verlander against a scuffling offense. It should be noted that the 40-year-old has performed reasonably well since the Mets traded him to the Astros for his second stint with Houston.
In his four starts in the American League, the elder statesman has a 3.38 ERA, 1.333 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 24 innings. Even though he is just a season removed from his third Cy Young Award, the ‘Stros are more interested in Verlander keeping the opposition at bay while letting the offense do the heavy lifting, as the rest of the rotation has been thinned out by injuries.
The Detroit offense has actually been league average over the last 30 days, which is a major improvement over the first few months of the season. When combined with Verlander’s diminishing skills, the Motor City Kitties are getting an almost respectable 3.9 implied run total from the oddsmakers. Over their last 30 games, they have plated 4.07 runners per tilt, though that has come with a 24.8% combined strikeout rate.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jack Flaherty vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,600 | Yahoo $35
After a pair of promising performances for his new team, RHP Jack Flaherty was crushed by the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday, allowing seven runs in just three innings. This afternoon is a “get right” spot for the 27-year-old against a scuffling Colorado offense. Flaherty has never really been a shutdown ace, but he does log 90 to 95 pitches more often than not, and this typically allows him to be in a position to earn the win and gives him time to collect strikeouts.
Over the last 30 days, the Rockies lead the league with a 28.3% strikeout rate and a not-so-nice 69 wRC+, which means they are creating runs 31% less efficiently than league average and about half the rate of Atlanta. Heck, even Oakland, Detroit and Washington look like juggernauts by comparison, so do not let this matchup go to waste.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Paul Blackburn at Chicago White Sox — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $8,200 | Yahoo $41
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has been left wondering where the love is for RHP Paul Blackburn. Over his last six starts, the oft-injured hurler has produced a 2.25 ERA, a 3.35 FIP and a .256 batting average against in 36 innings. During this timeframe, he also has 36 strikeouts and has ceded only a trio of taters. Though the salary is increasing, it is warranted by the recent production. The 29-year-old first popped up in The Show back in 2017, but this afternoon he will be making only his 63rd career start. He is in Chicago against the White Sox, and while he is staring down a 4.9 implied run total, some of that is assigned to the bullpen. Over the last 30 days, the ChiSox have created runs 10% less efficiently than league average while also striking out 24.7% of the time. This recommendation is not for the faint of heart, but it does take into account the elevated salary for Blackburn.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $49
There are only two games on the late slate, which means the majority of gamers will be looking to anchor their rosters with RHP Luis Castillo. The Seattle ace currently is second (+400) in the American League Cy Young Award race, behind RHP Gerrit Cole (-305) and slightly ahead of RHP Kevin Gausman (+550) according to OddsShopper.com. Since their seven-game winning streak that wrapped up July and slid into the first part of August, the Royals have a 5-15 record over the last 20 games. To their credit, they have only been shut out once during this stretch, but they typically only put three or four runs on the board.
Castillo is not known as a strikeout pitcher, but he has averaged 10.0 per nine innings this season, which is just a tick above his career average. His main strength is limiting runs and more often than not earning a quality start, which has him as someone to consider on FanDuel every time he pops up in the rotation. The next-best options among the four starters in the player pool are RHPs Graham Ashcraft and Slade Cecconi squaring off in Arizona. They truly are a coinflip, with Cecconi having the slightly better matchup, but Ashcraft neutralizes that with his advantage of having more big league experience.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Ty Blach — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
It looked like LHP Ty Blach was basically done with baseball after he struggled in 2019, including a final five outings with Baltimore that resulted in an 11.32 ERA, 2.18 WHIP and half a dozen home runs in a mere 20.2 innings. Ultimately, the Rockies came calling in 2022 and asked the Denver-area native to give it one more go to help bolster the forever-thin Colorado rotation. Considering the circumstances, everything since has actually been a success for Blach, but DFS gamers should stack against him every time he takes the mound from now until he retires.
This afternoon we should see Ryan Mountcastle in the two-hole between switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander. That likely means Austin Hays will be batting cleanup unless he and Mountcastle reverse roles. The third key right-handed bat will probably be catcher James McCann, who should also be in a prominent position just after the heart of the order to take advantage of his lefty-mashing prowess. Gunnar Henderson is likely to slide down in the order, but as we saw when fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland was on the mound and this same situation occurred, the young slugger still got his home run but off of a right-handed reliever.
Mix and match the Orioles today, and if they become overly popular in tournaments, lean on Jorge Mateo from the bottom of the order while still maintaining synergy as part of a “wraparound” stack.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool loves this matchup for Toronto, as it is time for RHP Noah Syndergaard to hang up his spikes. In his last four starts, Syndergaard has allowed seven home runs and 11 stolen bases. Of course, in a fun “Baseball being Baseball” twist, the only game in this stretch where neither of those splash plays occurred was against the Blue Jays back on Aug. 10. Expect that oddity to self-correct today, with a half dozen combined jacks and bags being produced by the Blue Jays in front of the Toronto fans.
Brandon Belt is a strong option, as he should be hitting third today, and while that will cost us the opportunity to have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the same lineups on DraftKings and Yahoo, that is not an issue on FanDuel, with the utility slot. Daulton Varsho, Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman all have solid extra-base upside against right-handed pitching, and Whit Merrifield is likely to swipe a bag or two from the leadoff spot if he can just get on board. Kevin Kiermaier is the discount dandy at the bottom of the order, and, of course, veteran George Springer is the most likely candidate to order up the dinger-and-steal combo this afternoon.
Early Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Alec Marsh — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Once again, game-time temperatures should be in the low-80s for this 1 o’clock local start in Seattle. To his credit, RHP Alec Marsh has allowed just six earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 15.2 innings. However, for the season he still has a 5.56 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP and a disastrous 12 home runs allowed in 43.2 total frames. The top of the M’s lineup is coming together nicely, with budding superstar Julio Rodriguez shaking off his sophomore slump and switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh playing at an All-Star level. Teoscar Hernandez had a pair of round-trippers yesterday, which led to six RBIs and helped propel the Mariners to a 15-2 victory. He is locked in with six multi-hit efforts in his last eight games, and that doesn’t include a five-hit effort in Kansas City 12 days ago.
Eugenio Suarez does not make a lot of contact, but when he does it usually goes for extra bases, which makes him a string contributor to Seattle stacks. The platoon-advantage squad at the back of the lineup has continued to produce, with Dominic Canzone, Mike Ford, Cade Marlowe and Jose Caballero all contributing in their own way. Josh Rojas has been one of the best hitters in the game since joining the Mariners at the trade deadline, and, of course, J.P. Crawford is back in his customary leadoff slot. Though Rodriguez is the only terrifying bat, there are not many easy outs in this lineup right now.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Sunday is a good time to consider Randy Arozarena in the sports wagering market. This afternoon the well-rounded hitter has a nice matchup against LHP Carlos Rodon. While this game is in Tropicana Field, which favors pitching, Rodon has allowed three multi-home run games in his last five outings. It should not impact our decision this afternoon, but it is good to note that, in two at-bats against Rodon, Arozarena does have a home run to his credit.
Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +520 line for him to surpass this milestone is actually more favorable than the +478 “true odds.” That means this line is inefficient by almost 7%, and with a 17% likelihood of the Tampa star taking one out of the yard, we have the makings of a favorable situation when using an extended timeline.
Keep in mind that home runs are fickle, which is why they are rewarded well by the sportsbooks. Finding little edges like the one currently available today is the key to sustaining and even growing bankrolls. Sprinkle a couple ducats on this wager for some entertainment value, and if it hits, then we are looking good for Week 1 NFL, which is just around the corner.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, August 27 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather does not appear to be of any notable concern today, though as always keep tabs leading up to first pitch — just in case.
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