Saturday has all-day MLB action, culminating in a five-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Tonight RHPÂ Logan Webb has a dreamy matchup against the Colorado Rockies and his offense looks like a promising stack ,and they might be giants, against RHP Chase Anderson.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $9,800 | Yahoo $47
Tonight RHP Logan Webb will be taking on the Colorado Rockies after RHP Alex Cobb (hip) had his start pushed back a couple of days. Though his results are not quite as good as the prior two seasons, the 26-year-old is still a steady presence in the San Francisco rotation and over 29 starts he ranks 17th with a 3.51 ERA and eighth with a 1.09 WHIP among qualified starters.
After a career low 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings, Webb is back around his career average with 8.3 per nine. He also has 20 quality starts this year, which is already a career high and trailing only American League Cy Young Award frontrunner Gerrit Cole. Quality starts are key on FanDuel for the bonus and this has Webb as the top pitcher on the blue site, while he checks in as a top-three play on both DraftKings and Yahoo from a fantasy point per dollar perspective.
Colorado has the third highest strikeout rate over the last 30 days at 26.9%, along with a .154 ISO which is a bottom-five rate during this timeframe. On the season, the current hitters on the roster have produced a 76 wRC+ which is the second lowest in the league, indicates the team creates runs 26% less efficiently than league average and is barely half of the 150 wRC+ produced by the Houston Astros.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Kansas City Royals — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo n/a
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Kevin Gausman looking at a bounce-back this afternoon against the visiting Kansas City Royals. Over his last four starts, Gausman has struggled with a 5.75 ERA and a .298 batting average against across 20.1 innings. However, there is a silver lining with his 3.65 FIP indicating that he has been somewhat unlucky, mostly with a .390 batting average on balls in play.
The Royals have been a league average offense over the last 30 days, which is a dramatic improvement over their 4.07 season average, courtesy of the fourth fewest runs scored this season. The projected lineup has a 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the beginning of last year, which bodes well for Gausman and his 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings rate which is second to only Spencer Strider.
Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP Bobby Miller at Washington Nationals — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $9,000 | Yahoo $43
The Los Angeles rotation has been decimated this season with off-field issues ending the tenure of Trevor Bauer and now Julio Urias is the idiot in the spotlight. Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May have all been lost to elbow injuries and Gavin Lux (knee) and Michael Grove (lat) are potentially returning this month, but with no definitive timelines.
Rookie RHPÂ Bobby Miller has been a steadying presence for the Dodgers chaotic rotation woes. Across 17 starts he has a 9-3 record with a 3.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a respectable 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The only real worry for Miller is that he is likely to cross over his career-high innings in this start. His strikeout rate has slowed over the last half dozen appearances and to the credit of the Nationals, they have a paltry 17.5% strikeout rate over the last 30 days which is the second lowest in the league. Of course Washington also has a .122 ISO in this period, which is by far the weakest group of bats by a longshot.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Chase Anderson — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:05 p.m. ET
After missing just over a month with a shoulder injury, RHPÂ Chase Anderson returned to action on Sunday, logging four innings on 66 pitches, ceding two home runs, a pair of free passes and recording only three strikeouts. Over his last 389 batters face, the 35-year-old journeyman has allowed a .231 ISO to lefties and a .207 ISO to same-handed batsmen. Home runs are also an issue and not just because he plays in Coors Field, but he also has struggled with a career low 35.4% fly ball rate this season. The baseball nomad has played for two teams this year and six franchises over the last five seasons. DFS gamers are very familiar with his talent level and we will not be alone in loading up on San Francisco hitters tonight.
The Giants will be rolling with a lefty-laden lineup, though against the Rockies there is diminished pinch hit risk with just two southpaws in the bullpen and rookie Evan Justice threw 21 pitches last night, walking two and getting one out, via strikes. That leaves 34-year-old Brent Suter as the only other rested arm.
Joc Pederson is the best power bat, though he carries the highest pinch hit probability, having just 46 plate appearances against same-handed hurlers this season. He should get two or three at bats today against Anderson, so he is still acceptable for tournaments. Leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. is the other pinch hit candidate, but his position in the order should have him with a good chance at three at bats before potentially leaving the game.
Wilmer Flores is on a tear and had a home run in the sixth inning and drew a bases-loaded walk in the eighth. Though it will cost his backers the first base slot on DraftKings and Yahoo, he is a core building block along with Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski. Catcher Blake Sabol is an option to fill out the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, with journeyman Mitch Haniger and baseball lifer Brandon Crawford the discount dandies.
Early Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP James McArthur — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
It looks like RHPÂ James McArthur is going to draw the start today, though he is unlikely to go more than 20 pitches or one inning. Then we could see a bullpen game, or it could be RHPÂ Zack Greinke who last pitched on Sunday, but as the “bulk” option. Regardless of how things play out, targeting the Toronto bats is a savvy strategy this afternoon.
Bo Bichette returned to action last night after missing time with knee an quad issues. His presence dramatically improves the Blue Jays and it gives additional protection in the order for the struggling duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.Â
Rookie Davis Schneider was far from a heralded prospect after being selected in the 28th round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of high school. The 24-year-old has caught lightening in a bottle and launch seven home runs, with an impressive 17 walks in his 21 games in The Show. Overall the not-so-young rookie has a .403/.535/.881 triple-slash line, courtesy of 17 extra-base hits in just 67 at bats. Enjoy the heater, because NONE of this is even semi-plausible based on his MiLB production. The Regression Monster is lurking, but that does not mean he will eat today.
Whit Merrifield, Dalton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier and whomever is behind the dish all have merit as discounted differentiation options for full-stacks. To be clear, we do want full-stacks against the KC pitching staff.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Jake Irvin — 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Rookie RHPÂ Jake Irvin has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals, though he is far from a lights out pitcher. Over the last month, walks and home runs have been an issue, which is not really a surprise considering the lack of prospect pedigree and a career high 130 innings. In 251 right-lefty matchups, Irvin has ceded a .225 ISO, with substandard 15.9% strikeout and 10.4% walk rates.
Roll out the lefties with Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, being the dynamic duo who should be included in all stacks. Mookie Betts is going to get a day or two off after fouling a ball off his foot, so that means either Jayson Heyward or David Peralta could be moved up to the leadoff spot. These veterans are not particularly enticing, but they are cheap and hitting at the top of the order would give either an elevated chance at five plate appearances.
Catcher Will Smith, designated hitter J.D. Martinez and centerfielder James Outman are secondary options behind Freeman and Muncy, but more spendy than Heyward and Peralta.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
It is a surprise how poorly things have gone this season for RHP Cristian Javier. Last year across 25 starts and five relief appearances he was outstanding with a 2.54 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 148.2 frames. Even as much as it pains me, we do want to pick on him in the sports wagering market for his strikeout prop.
Currently the wager is listed at -120 for u5.5 strikeouts. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -130 “true odds” of Javier failing to record six strikeouts against the Padres, indicates this line is inefficient by just over 4%.
In his last start, the 26-year-old rang up eight punch-outs against the K-happy Yankees. However, in the five prior starts he did not exceed four and the actual results ere 4, 3, 2, 3 and 4 whiffs. Today he projects for just over five strikeouts, which is almost a full strikeout short of what he will need to produce for this wager to fail. The projected lineup for the Padres has a 19.0% strikeout rate this season against right-handed hurlers and a 17.9% rate over the last 30 days.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, September 9 | MLB DFS Picks
The East Coast again leads the way with precipitation issues, though coverage looks to be low enough that postponements are off the table. There is a lowish, though still possible chance for delays impacting the games in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington. Atlanta and Minnesota also warrant a mention, though overall concerns are minor.
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