Today’s MLB DFS schedule offers several value play options, and in this analysis, we’ll evaluate each game and spotlight the players who offer the most value for daily fantasy lineups. So without delay, let’s dive into some of the prospective MLB DFS value picks.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 1
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
In this matchup, Domingo German of the Yankees is an appealing option for DFS lineups despite a tough matchup against the Guardians. German’s strikeout rate is up this year, and he was very good prior to his suspension and injuries, making him a good option for tonight. However, he has had some power issues, so Guardians hitters such as Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Josh Bell are the most likely to take advantage of the short porch in right field.
The Yankees bats are in a good spot against Cal Quantrill. While the lineup is watered down by injuries, there are still some solid bats, with Anthony Volpe and Anthony Rizzo standing out the most.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Two mid-range pitchers are viable in this matchup, with Drew Smyly having a favorable matchup against a weak Washington offense, though he doesn’t offer much in the way of strikeout upside. MacKenzie Gore has the higher ceiling of the two, having struck out 25.4% of hitters since the start of last season and 31.5% this season. He does have some control issues that can drive up his pitch count, but every pitcher on this slate has negative qualities, making it not as important. The Cubs do have plenty of right-handed power in their lineup, so there is upside here if Gore isn’t throwing strikes and frequently works from behind in counts.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Jose Berrios doesn’t inspire much confidence at this point, but he should be getting more than the 2% to 3% ownership he is projected for on DraftKings. With significant flaws in most pitchers on tonight’s slate, it seems strange for Berrios to not be getting more ownership. His strikeout percentage has also bounced back this season, having struck out about 26% of hitters compared to just 20.6% since the start of last season. While it’s still early, there is at least reason for optimism. Berrios is a strong GPP option if his ownership remains low. The bats in this game are where most people will be looking, with the Jays having a ton of right-handed power that can take aim at the Green Monster. Berrios’ biggest issue since last season has been left-handed power, and he is likely to be facing five lefties in the top six of Boston’s lineup.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Julio Rodriguez + Mariners Bats! (May 5)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Bryan Reynolds (May 5 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS Pick Advice & Strategy: Talk Directly With the World’s Best DFS Players on Discord
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Look to the Rangers Boppers! (May 4)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (May 3)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
Luis Garcia is the better option in DFS, Ross Stripling has some pitch count concerns. Garcia has struck out 24.8% of hitters since the start of last season and has had back-to-back good starts, which should help alleviate concerns about whether the forced change in his windup is going to be something from which he could recover. Astros bats have a relatively difficult matchup against Stripling, who has a 3.73 xFIP since the start of last season, but there is too much talent in their lineup to ignore them.
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Blake Snell is a volatile pitcher who has excellent strikeout stuff but walks too many hitters and is very inefficient. The inefficiency prevents him from going deep into games, which is especially problematic on FanDuel. However, he is inexpensive at just $8,000 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings, projecting as the highest-owned pitcher once again as he gets a favorable matchup with the Reds on a weak pitching slate. He will be easier to get away from in FanDuel tournaments than in DraftKings tournaments since FanDuel requires only one pitcher.
Luke Weaver is projected to go overlooked on DraftKings at $7,000 and 5% ownership. Weaver has been inconsistent throughout his career while also dealing with injuries, but he does have strikeout upside. That’s all one can ask for at low ownership in tournaments on a slate like this. That said, the Padres are one of the strongest stacks on the slate, as they have a loaded lineup facing a pitcher who has allowed a .207 xISO to righties and .186 xISO to lefties over the last three seasons.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tony Gonsolin is a good pitcher, and he is only $6,800 on DraftKings. Still, it’s a bit surprising to see him pulling 20% ownership after being limited to 65 pitches last start in his return from the Injured List. He is a viable play from a point-per-dollar projection standpoint, but the upside seems limited since it’s unlikely the Dodgers will give him a long leash.
Taijuan Walker is a decent pitcher in a tough matchup. He is usable at low ownership, but it is not ideal. The Dodgers have a ton of talent throughout their lineup and are always an appealing stack.
