NBA DFS Value & Advice: Nikola Jokic Top Play ... If Affordable (May 1)

Tonight NBA DFS players have two more playoff games to choose from. Stokastic’s team of experts will provide insights on each game and identify players who offer optimal NBA DFS value for your roster. Additionally, if you’re a new user eager to join the fun, don’t miss out on our special discount offer! By using the code ‘SCORE’, you can receive a remarkable 50% discount on your first week or first month.

NBA DFS Value and Advice | May 1

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-9)

Joel Embiid is listed as doubtful. Doc Rivers and the 76ers are not trustworthy when it comes to this injury reporting, but for now assume he is out. If he sits, Paul Reed is likely to start in his place and offer value at center. James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris will all see increased production, while De’Anthony Melton’s playing time will likely increase as well. Jalen McDaniels and P.J. Tucker offer cheap value options.

Not as much stands out from the Celtics since they are healthy. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White are projected for 23% to 27% ownership and between a 21% and 29% chance of being optimal on DraftKings (with the exception of Horford, who is currently 34% to be optimal). Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are getting a little bit less ownership and are viable secondary plays as well. This could be a series where Grant Williams is utilized more, but it’s likely that his playing time is positively correlated with Embiid’s.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-4)

Denver picked up a blowout win in game 1, but this is still just a 4-point spread and should be a more competitive game. Josh Okogie replaced Torrey Craig in the starting lineup in that game, and he is a strong point-per-dollar value if he remains a starter tonight. Craig is the natural pivot at $300 more for lower-owned value in a tournament lineup. Deandre Ayton is a strong center play at just $6,200 on DraftKings. He currently has a 40% chance of being optimal at 41% ownership. Chris Paul struggled in the first game, but at $7,100, there is still plenty of upside. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are the highest-ceiling plays, but they are getting a bit less ownership since they’re more expensive. Don’t be surprised if Cameron Payne steals minutes from Landry Shamet and/or Damion Lee tonight, but it’s unlikely that it will make much of a difference in DFS.

Denver is neck and neck with the 76ers for the highest-owned team on the slate. Nikola Jokic is the top-projected player on the slate and is obviously a strong play where affordable. Jamal Murray has been playing out of his mind this postseason, and he’s more than willing to take over a game offensively. He has produced 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this postseason, with a 29.8% usage percentage and 29.2% assist percentage in about 38 minutes per game. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are high upside mid-range options, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown offer value. Jeff Green and Christian Braun are viable as last guys in dart throws, but their production is unreliable.

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Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].